Member Info for skittish

The Times today -

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/network-international-set-for-flotation-under-ex-worldpay-chief-rvkfh866k

"A payments company that handles millions of transactions a day in Africa and the Middle East is lining up London’s biggest stock market float of the year.

Network International is expected to be valued at $3 billion when it goes public next month. The offering will eclipse the debut of DWF, the law firm, which achieved a valuation of £366 million at its flotation this week.

Network International was founded in 1994 and focuses on processing payments in Africa and the Middle East. It made an underlying profit of $152 million last year on revenues of $298 million. It processed 681 million transactions for more than 65,000 merchants.

Payments businesses are in demand among investors because of the rise in ecommerce and a fall in the use of cash.

Network International yesterday announced Ron Kalifa, 57, a former chief executive of Worldpay, as its chairman.

"Internal team meeting with LR this week"

Question - how do you know this, presumably it is not common knowledge?

More generally, at present there is an information vacuum.

Clearly some are taking advantage of this and hoping to load up on cheap shares. Nervous/disinterested holders are selling into the gradual decline. The rumour mill can dissuade people from buying, or persuade them to sell into the gradual decline.

The information vacuum will not last much longer.

The CPR will likely be significant and allow AAOG to have options.

Significant production will allow more options.

1,500bpd equates to an income of $2.2m per month. AAOG can recover the monies owed from SNPC via production - this is in the prospectus page 116.

Assuming production in May AAOG would have an income of $17.6m by the end of this year. SNPC would still then owe around $2M of the present $10M debt, even if we had retained all of the money generated.

Enough, I would suggest, to finance all of 104.

CPR and production opens up a whole range of possibilities - from farm in to free carry.

It is unlikely that AAOG would ever wish to fund full field development itself in a piecemeal fashion from revenues generated. Much better to get a big hitter to finance all in, and AAOG just rides along.

Licence won't be a problem (probably isn't a problem anyway), but certainly won't be if we have farmed out 20%+ or so to Eni, or Total, or SOCO.

It is simply a stage by stage process, with some execution risk, particularly with bringing 103 into production, but that isn't the first oil well ever to be drilled. So most likely will produce at the advertised rate.

The present time is a little frustrating, but if you can stand the heat, then the rewards will follow.

Someone obviously thinks something is going on due to the chunky buys.

I thought the last RNS was actually pretty good.

Breakeven is now EUR10M, with income of EUR 7.1M last year and the new contracts already this year of EUR2.6M, then we appear to be within spitting distance of break even.

Of course the legacy business doesn't really matter, but if it sold or spun off then we are a pure play on our 36% interest in Homesend, and that is when it will get really interesting.

We could also be due some action at EPO shortly.

Quite a few chunky trades - 4M+ - coming in towards the close and they appear to be buys.

Isn't the closing date 12th March?

I wouldn't expect Mastercard to leave it until the very last moment, so I guess that means something by Friday 8th.

Action appears to be imminent and the big boys appear to be betting on a higher offer.

Fingers crossed.

I wouldn't have too much objection to issuing shares for the purchase of a distressed asset, as it could be immediately enhancing. Would be less keen if it was to raise funds though.

I think to buy Tilapia it was 50/50 cash and shares.

ielts23,

Wow!

I'm really impressed.

Whilst I hold what I would consider a "decent chunk" of these I think it would definitely have to come in big time for it to be worthwhile actually going over there.

But to have a group of pi's rocking up at the rig, would I think, floor DS and the team.

In my wilder imaginings at the moment, but you never know.........

Monte, Sardinia, Hull?

We really need to think outside the box!

To me destination is obvious - Pointe Noire.

Tour the AAOG facilities, take a peek at what the the Chinese are up to and find a decent watering hole.

A sort of working holiday.

We could stop off at Monte (and Hull) on the way back.

Meanwhile I'm sure Kilkenny is still loading up - probably playing it long and cool, periods of activity and then laying low for a few days, whilst those disinterested/frustrated sell.

And Kilkenny1 may not be the same as Kilkenny2 - unless he forgot his password, of course.

So we should also play it long and cool.

Whilst there is of course an execution risk, that there appears to be significant Chinese activity in their licence area close by confirms to me that we are sitting on top of something fairly significant.

I'm sure once Kilkenny has achieved his target, whatever that is, the shares will then have the brakes taken off.

"You talk complete nonsense!"

Bang on boy!

Well known disruptive trolling tactics from the KGB down - ask other people to prove negatives.

5. State participation

The Petroleum Code does not provide for a minimum state participation in production-sharing contracts. In practice, however, SNPC’s participating interest in the corresponding production-sharing contracts tends to be set at approximately ten per cent. more or less. A new petroleum code might be an opportunity to clarify the terms and conditions applicable to the state participation, including a set percentage.

Despite the participating interest share held by SNPC, exploration and development costs incurred by the contractor group are generally borne and carried by the other contractor entities until exploitation starts, at which time SNPC’s portion of the costs is reimbursed from its share of the profits.

Prospectus p116

http://www.aaog.com/archive/Admission-Document.pdf

if that doesn't work, then through the AAOG website.

http://www.aaog.com/index.asp

It's all there.

"The non timely claw back agreement appears to relate to 103 only?"

The question mark suggests you are simply making this up.

The terms will be in the licence agreement/agreement between SNPC and AAOG and its predecessor (Prestoil Kouilou) and will of course relate to all aspects of the licence.

The original agreement was signed in 2006 long before 103 was ever even thought of.

See page 116 of the prospectus for confirmation.

To me, this is really a step by step process, constrained as always by available cash, which we know is tight.

To get a rig confirmed and booked for 104 AAOG will no doubt need to stump up some cash for a deposit. DS is unlikely to wish to spend cash unnecessarily until it is actually flowing in.

He is also unlikely, IMO, to confirm and commit to spending on 104 until the licence is confirmed - and he can also use this as a bargaining chip in the licence negotiations - why commit to major expenditure if the licence is going to run out in July 2020? No one would, so really we need the licence confirmed again before committing expenditure to 104.

SNPC look likely to want to see the CPR report before committing to the licence - obviously they are waiting for something - it can only really be the CPR or even the commencement of production from 103.

So to my mind it is really -

1.CPR, followed by the licence then production or possibly

2. CPR, followed by production then licence and only then

3. Commit to ordering equipment for 104.

Hopefully it will be 1 followed by 3

So realistically I'd think it would be end March for CPR, end April for production/licence, then when money is flowing in end May to commit for equipment for 104, followed by September/October spud. Target depth December for a very Merry Christmas.

I'm not expecting SNCP to cough up any more cash, why should they? I'm talking practically, not legally.

In the long run it doesn't actually matter, but short term means cash is very tight.

After December, those who got in at 10p will all be congratulating themselves, and you could well be lucky to get anything below 50 p. And 50 p I think is very conservative.

But by then all this will be history.

Infact, I've just realised the field around 20 km to the east of us is the M'boundi field which is actually operated by Eni, the Chinese hold the licence area immediately to the east of Tilapia.

tacka,

New Age licence areas are here.

https://ibb.co/HXn4Rj8

This also neatly shows Tilapia around 20km to the east of Nene (although not actually named on the map) and the much larger Chinese facilities 20km to the east of that at Tchikanou (correct spelling).

What appears to be the "new" Chinese facility is around 1 km to the east of Tilapia. Although there appear to be no rig present there, there are what appear to be 5 new drilling pads around 1 - 3 km east of us, with a larger facility around 3 km to the north - although high resolution images do not at present appear available for that.

Missed a pic!

For comparison this is a Chinese facility at Tchikonou around 20km to the east of our site showing a pad drilling on the left and a completed pad and flare on the right.

https://ibb.co/KxWK4Wy

Whilst we are waiting for news i though I'd post a few more pictures which have surfaced on the internet.

I've tried to keep all the images at a similar resolution from a height of 1 km, unless otherwise specified. All the photographs appear to have been taken on 31st December 2018, or thereabouts, although some seem to bear a date of 2014, which must be incorrect.

This is our facility.

https://ibb.co/sskR4DS

The site has been extended from the earlier images, to accommodate the respud, and the gas flare has been moved to the east. It looks like there are new facilities (housing?) closer to the gate house. The rig was in place at this time. The tank can be clearly seen.

This is the nearby "Chinese " facility.

https://ibb.co/DfNdjQb

Clearly much has changed since mid 2017 - but there is no evidence of large scale tankage etc , although there appear to be quite a few settlement ponds and some smaller tanks etc.

This is the earlier layout of the 5 new drilling pads - presumably again Chinese.

https://ibb.co/rfRLgLG

This is a closeup of the northern most pad, with some equipment and possibly? a gas flare close by. Ready to drill, or already drilled?

https://ibb.co/ZGg2KTS

For comparison this is a Chinese facility at Tchikonou around 20km to the east of our site showing a pad drilling on the left and a completed pad and flare on the right.

This is a 10km view of the Tchikonou facility

https://ibb.co/CwsfBvH

And a closer view showing some similarities with the facility around a km from us - but they are certainly not identical

https://ibb.co/xL35LFY

https://ibb.co/vcTcYtk

David Sefton's main interests and experience all appear to be in oil and gas viz AAOG and his previous and still existing vehicle Linton Capital LLC.

http://www.linton-capital.com/index.asp

Both share several members of each others top team.

However June 2018 DS became interim executive chairman of of UNILAD following a boardroom bust up, through, it would appear his role at Linton Capital LLC.

Quite what the exact route which he took from Linton to UNILAD, I'm not sure.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/business/business-news/unilad-co-founder-sam-bentley-14830634

UNILAD appears to be a successful (albeit possibly not financially successful) internet social media company.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNILAD

In October 2018 UNILAD was bought out (rescued?) by LADBible another successful internet social media company.

LADbible appears to have bought part of UNILAD's debt and then forced it into administration, and then bought it out of administration.

By some measures LADbible is very successful.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LADbible

"On 19 April 2017 LADbible featured in Marketing Land as they generated 3.2 billion views[27] to became March's most popular video creator in the world"

I assume that DS's role at UNILAD came to an end in October 2018 following administration.

However as it would appear that Widecell is now looking at being focused on a new media platform -

"Should Nuuco gain control and effect a change to the strategy of the Company by means of establishing a new media platform business"

the DS's links/contacts/experience with UNILAD/LADbible could be related to this.

He could even be using Widecell to list LADbible (my speculation, of course)

This isn't directly AAOG related, but could explain what is going on with Widecell and DS's links therewith.

Clearly his main experience and expertise is in oil and gas, but he clearly already already has contacts within the media world.

So Widecell is not linked directly to AAOG, but is simply another vehicle for DS, possibly for a completely different venture.

Clever chappie.

Looks like DS is positioning to buy it.

Far more interesting than talking about placings etc.

From the Twitterati - obone

"Yes, page 25 seems to mean David Sefton's Nuuco is likely to make a cash offer for the company. If the controlling interest , in concert , is above 30% a cash offer has to be forthcoming. Even if less, BOD are approaching Nuuco to make an offer"

It looks like we are living in interesting times!

Problem is - once you've bought something - that is paid for it, possibly in shares, you've then got to fund it, depending on what the licence terms are, whether by drilling or otherwise, so then issuing more shares.

However, by the end of the year we could have 7,000bpd. Not a certainty, but a possibility.

Even at 56% you are talking an income of $6M per month.

I'm sure there will still be plenty of distressed assets out there at that time and we would have plenty of cash with which to buy and develop them.

I doubt if DS would want to wait that long as clearly he has a target (or targets) in mind at present, but to wait a couple of months until Tilapia is flowing is I think reasonable and cautious.