Member Info for skittish

From 21.3.19 to 26.4.19 EHGOSF reduced from 28.64% to 6.09%, a total reduction of 22.55%.

During the same period Mr Aftab increased by 5.81%. Linton by 4.47% and Align by a net 2.2% (they were also issued shares in lieu of fees).

That totals 12.48%

So we are 10.07% of shares in the company "missing".

Bearing in mind around 44% of the entire share base was traded yesterday there is a good chance that EHGOSF took the opportunity to unload their remaining 6.09%.

Multiple TR1's likely next week - the question is where have those shares gone, and if EHGOSF have unloaded their entire 28% in the space of a few weeks what happens when the tap gushing the cheap finance shares is turned off.

Any of the big players who feel that they have not positioned themselves nicely by now could cause a mass scramble for shares.

Next week could be really interesting.

Surely the most important point is that Nuuco and DS no longer have any requirement for the £585,000 option in order to obtain effective control of the company, hence they have let it lapse.

So that means that DS has sufficient support from existing shareholders (declared or not) to achieve his objectives of directional and name change for the company.

The massive issue of new cheap shares has diluted previous holders and effectively rendered them powerless in voting terms.

EHGOSF have done a quick turn on most of their cheap shares, which were issued at a set price. As the share price climbs, as appears likely, then new shares, if issued at all would be issued at a progressively higher price, and in far fewer numbers, in accordance with the formula referred to in the prospectus, rendering their issue much less attractive to EHGOSF, or DS if he had extended his option.

The lapse of the option suggests to me that DS considers it unlikely that further shares will be issued under the financing arrangement, and thus his existing position and those of his supporters will not be under threat.

It can be no coincidence that Mr Ahmed chose to buy 5% of the company on the same day DS elected to allow his option to lapse. Clearly he also believes that DS has signalled further dilution is unlikely, particularly as he sold his entire 15% holding in February shortly after DS took over. Presumably he had intended to influence the future direction of the company with that 15%, prior to it becoming a media focused company.

Free of being diluted again he is back in with 5%, and possibly much more after today. To what end? Owning a sizeable chunk of WDC stock could be useful if he were interested in buying the legacy Widecells business, operating both as a cheap down payment and also to influence the outcome of negotiations. As the market cap remains at only £3.4M he could build up a sizeable stake cheaply and chip in with a bit of cash for the remainder of the Widecells part of the business.

As for DS he will control the legal and financial side of the media business, whilst allowing the media guys (almost) free reign. It was their legal and financial incompetence which eventually sunk Unilad. With the "grown up" stuff taken out of their hands they could build a successful business.

£3.4M for a media business with the Widecells business hived off to Mr Ahmed.

Cheap.

With enough shares now in his supporters hands and effective control DS can now tidy up the outstanding legal issues and move forward.

The share price will, next week, respond accordingly.

No "flow" figures because it squeezed past a 25 ft concrete plug.

We are all rats, but some of us are looking at the stars.........

On the question of the licence %, DS says that he expects to end up with the same % AAOG would have got whether or not SNPC were making payments - so the payments are irrelevant as regards the % negotiation. To me that means that past debts are immaterial, all that matters to SNPC is what maximum % SNPC can get for a free carry. Whilst Congo is oil rich, the country remains poor, and can't afford the cost of full field development which is likely to run into hundreds of millions of $. Outcome? I'd say 75-80%/20-25% with SNPC being carried. Timeline? I'd say 2-4 months.

SNPC knows what is down there, they will be privy not only to our own results, but also CNOOC's results next door and historical results of drilling in the vicinity going back to the 1990's.

They will know more than us, and no one should doubt that.

DS is in any event too smart to conduct negotiation by ambush.

Licence renewal? Legally this can't be made official until 19th January 2020. DS hints we may get it earlier, as we won't develop further until it's official. But still likely 6 months IMO.

After that with CPR sorted, % licence sorted, and licence renewed, then it could be farm in time with a major sometime in 2020, possibly after 104 is drilled.

It is not only SNPC that can't afford full field development, AAOG can't either.

Not only do the wells have to be drilled, the topside has to be upgraded, pipeline to the Djeno oil terminal about 40km away, as the Pointe Noire Refinery 17km away is already close to capacity, and then as the gas can no longer be flared we have to build a power station, electricity transmission lines and all the associated paraphernalia etc. Probably not much change out of $500 million, over a number of years.

I still think there is the possibility of another RNS before month end.

Maybe another payment from SNPC, maybe 102 water injection, maybe details about what is to happen at 103, something unexpected, perhaps.

As for the share price, I think today's fall is overdone (but that doesn't mean it couldn't fall further) whilst the "traders" exit.

But I do think it will strengthen during May and particularly towards the end of that month.

That is why I thought the CPR was likely to be "delayed" beyond April - the share price just didn't seem to indicate big news was on the near horizon.

The City types know when big news is about to break, and during May they will know that the real deal is fast approaching and will position themselves accordingly.

All IMHO, DYOR etc.....

Today's RNS is indeed unadulterated good news.

In a previous post a few days ago, I hinted that I expected the CPR to be delayed beyond the end of April and that we would get an RNS before the end of this month.

Now the CPR has been delayed to the second half of May - read end May, so we have around another month to wait.

The traders, disappointed they're not going to get a fast buck, and unwilling to wait a month, are selling out, and the share price falls. This is still very much a "traders share" with a lot of loosely held post placing stock sloshing about.

The results from 103C were known about on 29th January 2019. The Djeno oil results and analysis were known about from around 18th March 2019.

The revised LR Synergy CPR issued with the company prospectus was dated 12th October 2016. That incorporated production data and costings to September 2016. It took LR Synergy around 10 days to incorporate additional (admittedly limited) data and produce that updated report.

Would it now take 4 months to produce a third report, even incorporating quite a bit of new information? I don't think so.

I speculated earlier that "very, very good news" using a baseline of 300mb indicated the new CPR resource figure would be around 400mb-500mb+.

I suspect that, bearing in mind the draft report has been doing the rounds for a few weeks (DS on VOX Markets), the reason for the delay is that the new CPR exceeds even those expectations. DS uses the word "massive" several times on VOX Markets to describe various aspects of the find.

My view is that LR Synergy agrees it is indeed "massive", but before signing off such figures, and to make sure the CPR and their own reputation are "bulletproof" LR Synergy executives have insisted that all the information and their findings be sent to a third party, ie another CP outfit, for review, hence delay of a month.

Once the reviewers have crunched the figures and come back with the same result, LR Synergy will then be willing sign off the "massive" discovery.

After all the CPR, when it comes is likely to be relied upon in numerous discussions and negotiations going forwards, so best get it right first time.

What is "massive"?

Well, maybe a "1" followed by nine noughts.

See, I can't even bring myself to write it (trembling fingers).

This would be in line with similar major discoveries in the region.

cont/

W appears never to have been drilled, S may have been a duster as it is just a bare pad now, N appears to be producing (albeit probably modestly) and it is possible C, BN and N2 are also producing, E3 and E4 appear to be old pads from 2013/2014. E1/E2 appear to have some indeterminate equipment on them.

N, N2 and E3 are interesting as they are built right up to the edge of the Tropical Rainforest, but BN (the last to be built) actually enters slightly into the forest by around 100 metres.

CNOOC's mode of operation appears to be to clear away scrub over a period of around a month, prepare a pad, then a "blob" appears on the pad for around 3-4 months (actually a drilling rig), this disappears, never to return, equipment appears on the pad, but then a similar "blob" (presumably the same rig) shows up on the next newly constructed pad a few weeks later. Then rinse and repeat.

The CNOOC pads effectively surround our pad at Tilapia. The yellow line is the approximate boundary of our licence area. They have clearly made a major investment in what appears to be appraisal drilling right next to our licence area. If it cost us $20 million to drill 103C, then their investment is probably of the order of $60 -$100 million between April 2017 and October 2018.

They appear to have stopped for now as BN was completed around October 2018. Maybe they are preparing their own CPR and next moves.

Would CNOOC invest around $60-$100 million on our doorstep if there wasn't a prize of great value to be had? I think not.

The potential prize is illustrated by this image

https://ibb.co/0VzbfG5

The Eni operated M'Boundi fields are circled on the right. They are about 15km-20km from 103C and have estimated reserves of 1.4 billion barrels. At their peak they produced 56kbpd.

Circled left are 103C and the extent of the CNOOC pads with S at the bottom and N2 at the top of the circled area.

The extent of the circled area is close to the extent of the M'Boundi fields.

I'm not saying we have 1.4 billion barrels merely that we do appear to be potentially sitting on a very large amount of oil, and that has attracted the attention not just of DS and JB, but others also. And they have been prepared to invest much more than us to find out what exactly is there.

So if the CPR is delayed beyond the end of April, then I'm sure there will be a very good reason for this.

I am sure it will be very much worth waiting for.

You can almost feel the frustration and anticipation on the board over the last few days.

My own view is that every day is a day nearer news, and that whilst the lack of action in the share price is frustrating, it represents an opportunity to top up.

So I'm still chillaxed.

Befitting me, my explanation for the lack of a rise is relatively simple.

Almost 70% of the AAOG shares in issue were issued in the last 8 months. That is a great tsunami of shares coming on to the market. Some have gone to long term holders, many have not. They are gradually being soaked up, but many are still in traders hands. People have bought in anticipating news in March, we're now in April with as yet no news, and there are some easy picking to be made elsewhere, so they sell and the price falls.

AAOG still seems to be something of a trades share - not that I'm trading any.

Following the last issuance in January up to early April we seemed to be in a trading range of 9.4p to 10.7p. Now for the time being 10.7 appears to be the base, having been tested twice. So maybe we are in a slightly higher, tighter 10.7p to 11.6p trading range. Time will tell.

But news will come. I'm sure we will get an RNS by 30th April with good news. Whether it is the CPR I'm no so sure, the share price is not reflecting imminent blockbuster news. I suspect we'll get more news on SNPC payments (I was a sceptic, but obviously we are now being paid), maybe 102 water injection, maybe something completely unexpected.

The SNPC payments are really important on a day to day basis, as they obviate the need for any funding, and give DS and JB time and options.

The CPR, when it does come,will be, I think, indeed a blockbuster. DS says it is "very,very good", he has "lots of excited geo's" and they hit thicker than expected pay at every level. In the latest interview he refers to the difficulty they had controlling the well and that they thought it had been damaged by the amount of mud they had to pump down it to control the pressure. That the Djeno flowed indicates it was not damaged.

What appears to be DS's baseline reserves and resources figure as illustrated in the recent presentation is 300 million barrels. "Good" I would say is somewhere near that figure. "Very good" - I'd say that is somewhere north of that figure, "Very, very good", I'd say would be considerably north of that figure and I think the CPR will come in somewhere between 400/500+ million barrels.

That, I believe, is one reason why it is taking so long, as the report when it comes out needs to be bullet proof.

DS says it is well worth waiting for, and I'm sure it will be.

Between April 2017 and October 2018 CNOOC have drilled at least 6 wells right on AAOG's doorstep.

This illustrates their activities - https://ibb.co/JKrN2nY

BC, the presentation dated 2nd April 2019 says plan is to first increase production from 101 then second produce fro 103 R2/Mengo.

Seems pretty clear to me, although of course plans can change.

Combined 101/2 and 103 could produce about 2Kbpd - that is around $3M per month after expenses.

Certainly agree with you on cash, they can't risk running out of cash or wrecking 103. Djeno oil is great news but clearly there is something going on down there they don't fully understand, otherwise it wouldn't have flowed.

What's not to like about a relatively quick $3M per month.

But preserving cash and not wrecking 103 must be top priorities. Fancy stuff can come later.

Anyway I'm sure something pretty big is brewing, as apart from titbits, it has been radio silence for almost three months now.

Making 1 million over two days.

Price held at 11.55p to accommodate.

If you believe in fairies.........

"500 - Gap the stock. Gap can be up or down, depending on direction of 500 signal."

Hi gmcc, I'll continue to report whatever I may see.

I suspect it is only a matter of time before we get fairly major news, so my musings may become largely irrelevant.

Even though we're well into the 11's I suspect that the sp is still being carefully restrained, although why I'm not so sure. I am sure this will blow pretty big fairly soon though.

Did have a bit of a punt over at ROSE but exiting now. Not interested any more, but suspect it was all down to ready availability of cash $$$$.

Interesting how AAOG can move very fast these days.

We're getting on for almost three months without what I would call "proper" news - I regard SNPC ex licence as "housekeeping" and the Djeno oil flow whilst important was "accidental" (appreciate others may view things differently) - so we are certainly due quite a bit.

Suspect things are whirring away in the background (you can almost hear it) and that DS and JB are busy. If DS says he's "busy" I suspect quite a bit is happening and will be revealed in due course.

Just requires a bit of patience.

Happy Days!

Hopefully!

I know we differ on the means and possible dynamics of any deal, that isn't important really.

The important thing to me is that DS and JB were brought in by disgruntled shareholders, effectively going over the heads of the board. Half the board have jumped ship, so its two old guard vs our two new boys.

Our boys have access to the $, clearly the old guard didn't, and no doubt they've struggled mightily to raise cash for quite some time now.

So whoever has access to $, DS and JB, basically they say what goes.

Agree they wouldn't want a black mark on their "tip top" CV's, so now awaiting developments......

Hi TT

I'm lurking here also. The "other side" is getting a bit emotional, so I'm giving it a bit of a rest over there.

Looks interesting here and worth a modest holding.

Hopefully they'll put something worthwhile together, however they achieve it.

Obviously each viewer/shareholder/potential shareholder must make up their own mind as to what they see in the images.

But I don't see the dirt track.

The resolution certainly isn't great, around 3 metres "ish" but then the Planet Lab satellites are only the size of a household microwave oven. Digital Globe provides much higher resolution, 30 cm, if you pay quite a bit for it, but they only overfly every few weeks or months.

PL satellites are sun synchronous, they take the image at 09.09UT almost every other day, so no need to bother with shadows etc.

The best way of comparing is to flick between similar images to see the differences. I tend to get all the images up in the browser and then flick between them.

This is the pad with the rig in place or in the process of dismantling taken 6th February 2019. Although the rig is just a "blob", we know it was there then as they'd just RNS'd the Djeno find. Quite a bit of heavy equipment on site, but the area where the "X" is now located, is clear.

https://ibb.co/5KXzwVK

This is around the time of dismantling on 3rd March 2019. The "blob" is a bit smaller, and presumably there was a lot of heavy equipment moving around, but the "X" area then, was still clear.

https://ibb.co/pbf42qL

This is 13th March 2019, the "blob" (rig) has completely disappeared just leaving a discoloured area where it had been. The "X" area still appears clear, although there maybe something there at this time.

https://ibb.co/KqnMVJZ

Then by 8th April 2019 the distinctive "X" has appeared, and the 103 site is just a fading bare patch.

https://ibb.co/wrYHGWZ

The key thing is that all the heavy equipment (which would leave tracks) had been moved off site between 3rd March and 13th March, but the distinctive "X" shape didn't appear until sometime between 13th March and 8th April so the "X" is really unlikely to be related to tracks left by moving heavy equipment.

But everyone must make up their own minds.

And I'm certainly not saying what they are or maybe or maybe not doing, just that they appear to be doing "something".

No doubt all will be revealed in an RNS eventually (or not, as the case may be), but if they do RNS something to do with 102, just remember - you heard it here first.

Happy Days!

I posted a Planet Labs image yesterday of the Tilapia pad taken on 8th April 2019.

https://ibb.co/qCqz6B9

This appears to confirm that there is no new activity around the site of TLP-103C.

But a careful inspection of the image reveals a chromosome shaped "X" slightly below of the centre of the Tilapia pad complex. Presumably this is some sort of pipe arrangement.

This "piping" was not in place when the TLP-103C rig was present - this was taken on 31st December 2018

https://ibb.co/q7X0cjw

and from earlier images the "piping", although indistinct in earlier images seems to have appeared around mid March 2019.

So what are they up to?

This image shows the Tilapia pad mid 2018, prior to the TLP-103 drill.

https://ibb.co/12wQLMc

I've annotated 103 and 103C because we know where they are. 101V and 101ST must be correct (although possibly interchangeable) as 101ST is the production well.

Quite where 201bis/201bisST were drilled I'm not sure, possibly next to the 101's.

If I've got 102 correct then it looks like one leg of the piping runs from the "102" wellhead, another leg to a mud pit, the third leg to production wellheads 101V/101ST and the fourth slightly to the NE of the original 103 drill site.

The 3rd January 2019 RNS indicated that they were considering using 102 as a water injection well.

I'm not sure what such works would look like but maybe they're doing something with "102" at the moment, maybe further investigations, or actually working on it.

I've posted the images so people can make up their own minds.

Lots to look forwards to here.

All IMHO, DYOR etc

Happy Days!

Now up 0.15!

On twitter they are comparing AAOG shareholders to some sort of intolerant fascist hooligan saying "I guess they (AAOG shareholders) are something like this...."

Clearly some will stoop at nothing to dissuade people from investing.

You can almost hear this straining at the leash.......

It could be about to blow.

Just let it go.

Just take it one step further...

£170m market cap = 71p per share!

In fact I'd say you are underestimating potential revenue, but I can't fault the overall logic.

The odd few million in revenue is neither here nor there, but the ultimate direction of travel is obvious.

Sneaking up again and still getting blasted on twitter........

The little tinkers are sneaking this back up - 11.5p to buy now.

Yes, I am counting on DS, and JB to do the "right thing".

I sort of hinted at that in an earlier post, as it is noticeable that previous drilling at Tilapia took place in 1994/5 and 2006/7, both times shortly before a collapse in oil prices.

I'm thinking both times there had been "great expectations" and they used up all their finances drilling and when it came to finally producing they were on a shoestring as a result of falling prices, and could then never fully develop the asset.

Obviously I don't know the full history here, but the great thing about Tilapia is we have the topside facilities, roads, tanks etc to do around 4Kbpd already in place, so why not use those greatly under utilised facilities before spending loads more cash on improving them.

Anyway still a great prospect, and a bit of a pull back is always healthy.