Member Info for skittish

DS is a barrister with a law degree (or two) from Oxford.

He knew exactly what he was saying in the RNS - "this month" meant March.

Interesting theory BC.

I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it out of hand although I'm not quite sure how it would work.

There is a lot of news to come - but since the "biggie" of the Djeno reservoir find on 29th January 2019, apart from SNPC repayment matter (which I regard as a bit of red herring) the only news we have actually had is regarding confirmation that there is actually Djeno oil in the well - and that was presumably an unintended consequence of it pushing past the concrete plug.

As of yesterday morning there appears to be no new equipment present on the 103C pad

https://ibb.co/qCqz6B9

So maybe they are indeed considering their options.

DS did hint a few weeks ago that he would like to get the Djeno into production.

Could they raise enough money on the back of the CPR, hopefully via debt to get them through to production?

I'd say probably $10M for the rig, top facilities upgrade (guess) $2M, running money probably to end 2019 $3M, contingency $2M - so that results in~$17M+.

They wouldn't need a pipeline for 5Kbpd as around 25 truck loads a day would do it, at least short term.

Could they raise that via debt? Bit of a tall order, but we'll see what the CPR says.

I doubt very much if DS would do it via equity, as even he must see now that the last two fund raisings have completely knackered the share price for the last 9 months, and that is continuing now.

Perhaps more importantly, whilst the prize is large, it raises the risk profile, as 103C is the only decent well we actually have at the moment.

DS presents AAOG as being low(er) risk, so in keeping with that the chances are he'd bring 103C into production first with R2 and Mengo.

Now if of course they did a deal with a "Major" that would solve all the problems - SNPC get a free carry and (probably) cash, we (probably) get cash and a funding deal, and any licence issues are sorted.

Despite the fall today I get the feeling that this remains a coiled spring.

Yes, they appear, for the time being, to be quite happy to soak up all the sells and not drop the price.

Similar to yesterday afternoon.

Very, very heartened by the price (and other) action today - up 0.45p to 11.45p!

Third day of blue in a row.

Not only did we have the pointless argument on here, just to distract everybody, by people who chase each other round the boards trading insults, but AAOG has also had a torrent of abuse on Twitter over the last several days and continuing today.

The stuff going round Twitter is very negative from DS being a scammer, 103C will only ever produce 200bpd, the API43 oil is rubbish and will never sell, there is a placing coming, AAOG can't even keep the lights on, DS is more interested in ROSE than us, where is the CPR etc etc.

Some two bit trader has "announced" he's even put a "sell" rating on it. As if his 200 followers are bothered.

But more importantly the price is up!

The selling continues but the last 2 hours of trading were interesting.

1.5 million sells vs 300K buys and the MM's could only knock the price down by 0.05p. Indeed towards the close after a torrent of sells totalling 500K, a 5K buy was enough to shift the price upwards.

The MM's seemed happy to keep lapping up all those shares as the selling continued towards the close despite there apparently being no buyers around. This contrasts very much with their attitude over the last several months.

Whilst the price didn't maintain the high of 11.9p, I suspect that we will continue to maintain our gentle upwards momentum for some time yet.

Happy Days!

Yes, but amazing how people who are "in big" here, or suchlike, can't resist trashing and thrashing the boards.

Any new investors seeking information here are likely to simply move on.

Makes you wonder.........

Some odd trades going through at the moment.

3,
215,
431?

What's that all about?

Yes, noticeable that this is getting knocked and on twitter also with misleading "information".

I have no doubt that the ROSE matter will however, eventually prove to be quite interesting. Noticeable that DS and JB were brought in there by "shareholders" and not the current management team.

Quite happy that this is showing a steady rise on no news, rather than the spikes of recent past.

News can't be too far away as the technical meeting, and knowledge of the Djeno oil is about 3 weeks old now.

Good ol' 911 trade shows up

911 - Pending News/Press Release On The Way

If you believe such things.........

NT?

What does that mean? Pardon my ignorance.

For 57% read 63%!

There has been a deluge of selling for months.

Probably the 92 million issued at 8p in June 2018, and 60 million issued at 10p in January 2019.

Some will have gone to a good home (Miton) but many will have been sold/churned.

As recent placings constitute around 57% of the shares in issue, and around 80% of the free float, this IMHO has artificially depressed the share price.

If indeed this has now cleared (we'll know early next week) then the shares will trade at a more realistic level.

I don't think it is a case that no one was willing to pay more than 12p, but simply there was no need to pay more than 12p. Every day, for months, any significant buying was met by a torrent of large selling activity.

Activity towards the end of last week suggested that the apparently limitless selling may have come to an end.

We will know, I guess, by the end of next week for sure, maybe sooner.

Hang on a mo!

mrs skittish is also hoping to get in early doors, so we don't want the sp racing away to the heady heights of 12p - 13p, too quickly.

More to the point if indeed the mass overhang and sale of placing shares over the last 12 month has now come to an end, as indeed maybe the case, to what level will AAOG shares naturally rise to reflect their intrinsic value.

My bet would be 20p to 25p, without news.

We could indeed, finally, be in for an interesting week.

Yes there do appear to be a couple of mixed messages floating around - not necessarily from the company itself but from those close to them.

Maybe it is dependent upon SNPC cooperating.

At $70 oil we have around $100,000+ pcm coming in, add that to the $600,000 pcm from SNPC and that is a nice little income, which will last to mid 2020.

The problem is that SNPC aren't very reliable, and despite their promises, I suspect that the first tranche hasn't actually been received despite the RNS a week last Friday.

I'm sure DS would like to produce immediately from the Djeno, if he could, but maybe a TLP-103C ST would only be possible if SNPC kept up regular payments.

DS has mentioned that the big prize is the Djeno, but he also says that most important of all is turning the oil into cash, and you can't do that if it stays in the ground. And a TLP-103C ST would probably put back decent production to the end of the year at least.

And whilst he may wish to "optimise" production in reality it may not be possible, at least not at this stage due to monetary constraints.

In any event TLPM-1 in 1994 flow tested at 2170bpd from R2 and TLP-101ST in 2007 produced at an initial 942bpd from R2.

It is noticeable that both these drills occurred shortly before a collapse in crude prices with probably precluded significant further developments of the field. It was the collapse of crude prices in 2015 which probably finally forced Sister Holdings SAS into the waiting arms of DS.

I'm sure DS is probably mindful of this also.

So it should be possible to get around 1,000bpd initially from R2 alone, even without the Mengo. Co mingling any you're up to 1,500bpd+ with not too much risk.

I think DS is focused on monetisation above all else, and always presents AAOG as a lower risk play than your average small E&P company, so that, to me, means sticking with the plan for early production.

As to 101/102 work overs the Admission document say the installation of the already purchased pump for 101 needs a rig - cost $1.5M, but only $200K if a rig is already available. 102 costs for well stimulation were estimated at around $500k assuming no rig was needed. Work on 102 appears to have been put to one side whilst they drilled 103C.

Next week should be very interesting in terms of the share price.

There are around 239 million shares in issue with around 190 million shares in free float, but of those 60 million were issued in January 2019 and 92 million in June 2018.

Maybe that's where all the selling has come from. Looks like it has now finally finished and we could be about to find out our true price level at last.

Happy Days.

There could be a mad dash for people with ISA money Monday AM, so we might get a fairly strong close here today in anticipation.

Hopefully into the teens next week and then we start getting a bit of news flow........

AAOG's own website says on 17th January 2019 20.24% of shares not in public hands.

But the chart looks beautiful, so who cares..........

Interesting that people on twitter are being deliberately misleading - saying our super dooper API 43 oil is "heavy oil" and therefore cheaper.

Also asking why no flow rates - well because the oil was squeezing past a concrete plug, so you were not going to get an accurate flow rate.

What could their motive possibly be for saying such things???

900 - Allow the stock to float and trade freely.

(allegedly)

Sells have been generally matching buys for over two months now to keep us in the 9.4 - 10.7p range.

At the moment it is 269K reported buys to 268K reported sells. Pretty amazing stuff.

We do seem however to be gradually edging up to the top of the price range, with the last couple of weeks showing the lows in the price gradually moving upwards.

Quite what happens when we do eventually break out of this range (whether it be up or down) who knows - but whatever way it goes it should be very interesting.

My feeling is upwards, by the way, and it could be quite a ride.

TLP 101 - they just cleaned the lines and production went for 35 to 53 or thereabouts - not exactly loads of work there.

TLP 102 - they never installed the pump, and are now considering using it as a water injection well - so again not exactly loads of work there either.

Wells producing from just the R2 at Tilapia have got circa 1,000bpd, so getting an additional 500bpd from the Mengo won't be too much of a problem.

TLP 101/TLP 102 - That is because they never carried out any work to increase the flow.

TLPM-1 flowed at an initial 1886bpd from R2 in 1994 and TLP 101ST flowed at an initial 942bpd from R2 in 2006.

The only well to encounter the Mengo prior to TLP103C was TLP 101V in 2006 and the prospectus is not clear as to whether this was ever flow tested - presumably not. TLP 101V was the deepest well prior to TLP 103C.

TLP 102 encountered the R2 but didn't flow probably due to formation damage.

Having encountered 56 metres of oil thickness in TLP-103C I'm sure that some of it will flow.

No well previously has ever encountered so much oil here R1, R2, R3, Mengo, Djeno.

I'm sure an initial 1,500bpd won't be too much of a problem.