Member Info for skittish

Oh yes, its massive.

300 million barrels may be a significant underestimate.

But it looks like we will have to wait until mid/end April for the CPR.

But it should blow the socks off this.

If other news hasn't already by then in any event.

Lucy - welcome aboard!

I'm sure you will not be disappointed - but you also need some diversification, patience - and nerves of steel sometimes.

Coming back to the RNS of 29th March I'm pretty sure that the "repayment of funds" bit was written at least a week before. It probably arose out of JB's discussions in Congo w/c 18th March but refers to "SNPC has agreed to pay monthly instalments, commencing this month".

Well, "this month" effectively ended on 29th March. I'm sure in my own mind they were hoping to say they had actually received $600K , but couldn't, and couldn't delay past 1.30pm without making the RNS appear out of date and attracting ridicule.

They had to say something to satisfy DS's commitment to "news in March" and the real news, oil from the Djeno, important in itself, which must also have been known about for around 10 days was just used to spice things up a bit.

I'm not dissing the RNS but the way it is worded appears quite curious to me.

I'm also sure there is quite a bit of really good news to come fairly shortly, but DS cannot actually say just yet. You can see all the wheels whirring like mad in the background, but can't accurately predict what is going to pop out the other end - you just know that it should be brilliant.

DS praise for Sclumberger is also interesting " a very welcome surprise and confirms the excellent work on the CPI done by Schlumberger."

It was they who gave us the wonky rig and caused a lot of the trouble - and also possibly cost us the main target the Djeno sandstone reservior. Maybe things have been patched up with Sclumberger, and we will after all use their equipment on 104.

Also the 12 metres of oil in 29th January RNS was unexpected and in shale. I can't find anywhere the interpreted thickness of the main target, presumably it is a lot thicker than 12 metres and is in sandstone. If 12 m in shale flows naturally then 12 metres+ in sandstone should really gush.

As 56 metres of oil is already identified in 103, another 12 metres+ should take us up to 70 metres+ in this single well.

Value will out in the end.

DS is confident alright.

Confident because he "knows" what is down there, even before he started drilling.

"Knows" because CNOOC appears to have embarked on full field development with 9 pad either built or being built over the last 24 months. They appear not to be producing yet, as no significant tankage, flares or piping present or at least not at the resolution in the satellite images. Maybe they are awaiting permits as they are in the chimp sanctuary.

But you wouldn't build 9 pads and all the associated structures just based on seismic.

I surmise they drilled the Djeno several years ago probably from "Complex 1".

That is where all the mud pits are located and tailings are stored.

We have 3 mud pits. They had 16.

Our tailings dump from 103 is dwarfed by their tailings dumps.

Rigs aren't obvious at this resolution, but they've sure done a lot of drilling over the last several years.

And SNPC have 15% of the CNOOC licence, so they know what is there also, and have done for several years.

I love dull shares.

Wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't the Chinese shorting the hell out of AAOG to try and undermine the company and maybe snatch our licence if ever the chance arose.

But it will blow big time, and I suspect not too long to wait now.

Sorry...missed the June 2018 image for "BN" - the road and pad were obviously built between March and June 2018

https://ibb.co/26CJNgj

I've been chopped again - last line .. no doubt improved images will appear in time.

....as if we haven't had enough exciting news already.

I've found a new source of satellite images, Planet Labs, which allow a month by month comparison of Congo activities in and around Tilapia.

Dating local CNOOC activity was a previously a problem, but now sorted.

This is the area January 2019

https://ibb.co/dGDw809

The central pad next to the cursor is "C" for Central, the a pad to the North "N" , to the West "W", East is two adjacent pads "E1" and "E2", with two possible further pads NW of that "E3 and "E4", a southern pad "S". To the immediate south of pad W is "Complex 1" which may be a tailings and waste facility (remember the chimps) and immediately to the south of pads E1/E2 is "Complex 2".

There is a further pad outside the picture which I've called "BN" for "Big North" - I'll come onto that later. All the pads lie in the chimp sanctuary area, although "Complex 1" is immediately outside. All are in CNOOC's licence area.

Tilapia and 103C is the pad to the far west, on the shoreline.

This is the area in March 2017

https://ibb.co/TLPTpYr

This shows only pads E3 and E4 and a smaller "Complex 1" with "Complex 2" as some sort of rough soil dumping area.

This is April 2017

https://ibb.co/SBM9C0M

pads "C" and "E1" have been built

By July 2017 pads "S" and "E2" have been added and "Complex 2" has taken on a much more regular and defined shape.

https://ibb.co/j5WXpXt

By November 2017 pads "N" and "W" have been added (although "W"appears presently to be used as a truck parking facility).

https://ibb.co/87M4scZ

By March 2018 several of the pads appear to have equipment, mud ponds etc installed and work has begun on extending our pad at Tilapia. Several other smaller areas have also been cleared - at one time the small central area supported a number of huts and a large radio mast - could these areas be used for seismic tests?

https://ibb.co/bFg7Ks3

Pad "BN" "Big North" has been constructed more recently. This is the area in February 2018

https://ibb.co/zH51CG4

Tilapia is middle bottom and "N" and "C" to the right. This is the area in June 2018 showing our extended pad and a double track road leading into the forest to a large pad "BN" almost the size of our pad and much bigger than "N" "W" etc. This is "BN" January 2019, showing the roadway and some equipment installed and the rig on our Tilapia pad.

https://ibb.co/h8DtD9K

The Google Earth images of 31 December 2018 appear to show via tyre marks most of the recent HGV traffic leaving from "Complex 1" heading in the direction of "BN". The GE imagery is excellent but unfortunately only shows "Complex 1" and "N" in high resolution.

I guess what I'm trying to highlight here is the amount and degree of what appears to be seriousand recent CNOOC investment immediately adjacent to us. The Djeno structure doesn't just stop at the coast but could possibly extend inland -

https://ibb.co/wLydjwx

No doubt improved images will a

end should read.../

Big plans ahead, me thinks.

This last RNS is really excellent and it is clear that none of that is priced into the share as yet.

But the most important thing here is to get cash flow.

So that means sticking to the plan and getting the Mengo and R1,2,3 to produce at 1,5000 to 1,800pd.

In the ProActive interview on 16 January DS said he didn't think that the topside could cope with production from the Djeno, (7.10) and they we're still drilling at that point, so I can't see them doing that now.

He also said that with what they had got at that point the pressure profiles etc were exactly in line with what was anticipated (8.07) and that the Mengo at 103 was identical to other producing wells in the area (8.23)

The most important thing is not to risk the well (I think we're still using the beat up, wonky rig) so we can't imperil this asset now. So stick to the plan.

As for SNPC this is really exciting - they haven't actually paid any monies as yet - they were meant to pay $600K yesterday - I take it that promise arose from JB's meetings with them around a or so week ago. I'll wait and see on that - I still have my doubts they'll pay but I'm willing to be proved wrong.

More importantly (much more importantly) it appears they are willing to give us a greater share of Tilapia in forgiveness of the debt. I'm also a bit surprised by this as it does not make economic sense however around 80%-90% of Congo government revenues come from oil taxes and SNPC, and GDP is either flat or going down so it could be really difficult for them to put $10M to one side to pay us. The Congo government just says "Gimme" and SNPC has to.

JB could also have presented them with a full field development plan and costing running into the $100's of millions and they have baulked at that, so are willing to give up part of their 44%. I'm not sure about the history of licences in Congo. Our licence dates from 2006, before the big Congo Djeno oil discoveries, more recent licences, such as CNOOC next door give SNPC 15% and a free carry.

So I think that we could end up with 60%-80% of the licence and SNPC gets a free carry. That then raises the prospects of farm out to a major, and we still get to keep a big chunk of the licence, but with relatively little expense going forwards.

I still get the impression that he is keeping something important back. No news on how much oil was recovered from Djeno, or what the pressure was - it must have been FIZZING.

Dates are also important - 103 was completed on 26th January.

Well left for 45 days takes us to 11th March, which neatly was a Monday. Testing say took a week, 18th March.

JB in the Congo that week, sees SNCP, picks up results and samples, brings back to LR Synergy.

ATOG registered 23rd March.

Rose Petroleum directorships 28th March.

Confirmation of 12 metres in the Djeno (bearing in mind that this wasn't even the main target in the Djeno) appears to have been the catalyst for all sorts of activity.

Big plans ahea

cont/ drilling.

There is a lot of oil down there.

I've now found a new source of recent satellite images, so i'll post a few details of those when I've correlated them.

Exciting times ahead I'm sure.

I was surprised this morning by the negative reaction to DS and JB becoming directors at Rose Petroleum.

To my mind this really is very, very good news indeed.

My view is as follows.

DS has stated that AAOG's method of operation is to target distressed assets, with some P if possible, substantial E upside and then develop them.

ROSE has no P, but there is P 365 metres from their acreage, it has really significant E upside, many millions of barrels (1.4Bn is mentioned somewhere) and to call it distressed is an understatement. 5 years ago its share price was equal to 400p, it is now around 1.7p. They haven't even got enough money to drill a single well, and the sp has reacted accordingly.

So it appears to fit all the criteria laid out by DS for him to be seriously interested in it.

The RNS says they've brought experienced oilmen on board viz DS and JB, but 6 months ago DS and JB struggled to raise even death spiral finance for AAOG - so

Q - what has changed?

A - 103C and an almost ready CPR on Tilapia.

Whether ROSE issues millions of new shares in exchange for finance and AAOG taking a majority stake or ROSE shareholders take 1 AAOG share for every 10 (or 20) ROSE shares DS and JB will end up in charge of ROSE (or maybe Anglo American Oil and Gas - if renamed) and the company will become a wholly or majority owned subsidiary of AAOG.

JB is a deal maker, that is his history, and here is a deal being made before our very eyes. He will shortly IMHO be CEO of that company.

Why are 103C and the CPR important to ROSE?

Because that will enable DS and JB to raise the finance to get ROSE drilling.

Either the income from 103C will do it or the CPR is so good, that it will enable serious money to be raised against the Tilapia assets. I wouldn't be surprised if DS hasn't already got the nod from financiers in response to a draft CPR being passed around.

No coincidence that ROSE and ATOG appear on the radar in the same week.

DS knows he has a clear runway.

This means that the CPR is really as good as DS has been hinting that it is and he is supremely confident 103/104 will produce as he says.

It is simply a matter of joining the dots.

As for the chimps - this relates to CNOOC next door to us at Tilapia.

I've puzzled over their apparent facility around 1km from us - settlement ponds and tailings dumps are obvious, but no rigs or big tanks or flares.

https://ibb.co/QcR9czZ

The answer lies in chimpanzees.

All the CNOOC drilling pads to the east of Tilapia lie in a chimpanzee sanctuary.

https://ibb.co/jhK7pWV

It appears that they are able to drill within the sanctuary but all the waste mud and tailings must be dealt with outside. Hence the facility located immediately outside the sanctuary boundary.

What appear to be tailings dumps can be seen here to the north and east.

https://ibb.co/DfNdjQb

That appears to be a very large quantity of tailings and waste. So they have done a lot of

Could you make it 912 next time - the old ticker can't stand too many 911's?

Good ol' 911 trade @ 15.51

"News pending" - unless someone is playing tricks of course.....

It certainly looks like someone has been spooked, although volume wasn't excessively high.

I'd be surprised if MC were jumping the HS ship bearing in mind it is supposed to be one of their three pillars, and they've supported it for around the last 5 years or so, and particularly in the last year with additional funds.

Also the NI IPO is a quite recent development, and it seems strange they would opportunistically give up Homesend in which they hold 65% for 10% of NI.

Lets see what tomorrow brings - maybe some commentary.

This is also interesting -

"Under the deal, Mastercard and Network International will also create a strategic partnership to drive adoption of digital payments in the Middle East and Africa. Network International has emerged as a leader in the Middle East in helping retailers accept cards as a payment method both in the physical world and online. The payment sector in the Middle East has been seeing brisk business in recent years as more people use digital payments to make purchases."

I guess this could benefit ESG if MC were able to direct some of the NI turnover via Mastercard Send.

Having said that there seems to have been quite some selling today, and a big 10% drop immediately prior to close!?!?

https://www.pymnts.com/mastercard/2019/mastercard-investment-network-international/

Mastercard, the payments company, is taking a big stake in Network International, the payments company servicing the Middle East.

According to a report in The Financial Times, Mastercard will take part in Network International’s initial public offering (IPO) in London in April by making a $300 million investment in the listing. It will amount to Mastercard purchasing 9.99 percent of Network International’s shares, reported The Financial Times.

www.datocapital.uk/companies/Anglo-Tunisian-Oil-%26-Gas-Ltd.html

TLP-103C will actually provide an income of around $2.3m net per month.

Don't forget we will get 100% of the income until SNPC's $9.5m is paid.

This in reality will be their "short term repayment plan" - I believe the 18th February 2019 payment was just to keep AAOG happy for the time being.

Assuming we get cash from oil-flow in May of the $2.3M per month, $1.012M will be SNPC's share, the remaining $1.288M our share.

So the $9.5M owed will reduce by $1.012 per month until fully paid around February 2020.

So all the cash generated up to around $21.5M will be ours.

By then 104 should be well underway, if not actually completed. In reality I don't actually expect SNPC to pay their share of this either.

But it actually doesn't matter, as on 5000bpd revenue, at current prices, will total around $7.5M per month. Their share of 104 will be repaid within a couple of weeks.

And likewise on all subsequent wells.

The really hard work - which was drilling a difficult 103C on a shoestring and without any contribution from SNPC - has nearly all been done all that remains is the frac and getting it to flow - which should be the "easy" bit.

An circular area has already been cleared to the west of the 103C pad to site the gas flare.

https://ibb.co/sskR4DS

the existing gas flare now having been moved from immediately adjacent to the 103C pad to well to the east of our pad area. It will be easy to site subsequent rigs in a neat north westerly line from 103C.

After first flow from 103C it should be plain sailing - with money flowing in, 104 should be paid for within just 5 months income.

That should be the position by end 2019/early 2020.

After 104 subsequent wells should pay for themselves within just over a month.

Then Tilapia will be a cash cow - not only for AAOG but also SNPC and the Congo government.

I'm not even bothered about the licences - I'm not expecting any new on them anytime soon - by early to mid 2020 I'd expect DS to be looking to farm out to the likes of Eni or Total because full field development - and we are talking 50,000bpd+ - will require serious $, but perhaps more importantly serious expertise and a depth of knowledge that AAOG and the small team there does not possess. Once the majors are involved any remaining licence problems (if indeed there are any) disappear.

I expect that DS would wish 104 to come in prior to any farm out, as another discovery in the Dejno, will confirm the 5000 bpd per well and then we also have the Vajni wildcat. But after that a farm out really becomes likely.

So the 103C result was the first step up, the CPR will likely be the second, then oil flow, then cash flow - and after that there will be no stopping this.

Just remember that all the really hard work has been done - step by step - from here on its onwards and upwards.

Was going to post this yesterday evening - but LSE wouldn't cooperate - so saved it for today FWIW.

I'm fairly chillaxed at the moment.

DS saying that the technical meeting went well -

" technical team had a very good session with them last week"

and

" the price is bonkers in light of THEIR view of what the results are"

(my emphasis - they being LR Synergy) really confirms that the CPR will be stating that Tilapia has in the region of 300M barrels.

He can't actually say it, yet, but he is pretty darned close.

They obviously agree with what AAOG has been saying since the 26th January RNS.

Meanwhile - a video.

This appears to be at the time of the original 103 spud, circa August 2018, lots of local worthies getting very excited. It was obviously quite a big deal in the locality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlSBC1y7H6k

It shows the site at a much more advanced stage than the video on the AAOG website, pre 103, and since this video the site has been expanded yet again - see satellite images posted earlier and the video from November 2018 with our intrepid aeronaut Jeremie Lecocq!

It is clear that some major investment has gone into our drilling site and it has been transformed since 2017.

Yes, it obviously is of some significance to the ESG board.

They possibly have the best insights here.

But whenever they do an RNS the shares always seem to go down, before recovering slowly in the weeks after.

We live in interesting times.

This must rank close to Gordon Brown selling off much of our gold ultra cheap.

The Times today -

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/worldpay-to-be-taken-over-by-rival-to-create-43bn-electronic-payments-giant-trj6qs7hn

"The purchase of Worldpay by Fidelity National Information Services for $43 billion makes it the largest merger in the electronic payments industry.

The deal will create the world’s largest electronic payments business by market value, linking banks and credit card companies with billions of consumers who are increasingly shunning cash.

Worldpay, formerly Streamline, was set up in 1989 as a subsidiary of National Westminster Bank. Natwest was bought by Royal Bank of Scotland in 2002 and the payments business was renamed RBS Worldpay. RBS then developed the business through acquisitions in Europe and America.

In 2010 the bank sold RBS Worldpay to Advent and Bain, the private equity firms, for about £2 billion, to comply with EU rules on state aid after its £45.5 billion government bailout during the financial crisis. The private equity firms floated Worldpay five years later at a valuation of about £5 billion. At the start of last year Advent and Bain sold Worldpay to Vantiv for £8 billion.

Worldpay, headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, processes about 40 billion transactions a year in 126 currencies. It has 3,700 employees around the world and reported revenue of $3.9 billion last year."