Member Info for skittish

I think this is the plane taking off - beyond dodgy!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4gf_-SoXQ0

Tiburn - i'm not sure it is an actual refinery as the refinery at Pointe Noire looks quite different and is much larger - but it looks clearly gas/oil related - i guess it could be to deal with gas (which is now usually flared) whilst the tankers deal with the oil.

ilets23 - our drill pad is around 4 km north of the red roofed building. They are both clearly shown on Google Earth. We are I think 17 km north of the Pointe Noire refinery. The kink in the road is actually NE of Tilapia, for some reason the road which follows the coast suddenly diverts around a km inland, and our pad is within that area.

What I've tried to highlight is the massive Chinese investment literally next to us.

They wouldn't have done this if they weren't expecting a very significant return.

Whatever us under us/them must be worth putting very significant investment to get out.

This could be very large indeed.

The zoom earth links don't appear to work automatically, but if you highlight them and then press "go to" it will take you to the relevant satellite image.

The aerial video is here and is dated 4th November 2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUDO5dL6vmw

It shows

1.07 Chinese oil/gas facility 4 km S of us

1.42 Communications facility, with satellite dish

1.51 Gas/oil facility

2.15 AAOG facility presumably in the middle of drilling 103

3.00 Estuary to the north

3.34 AAOG again

And beautiful countryside!

Silly price......

Yes, I'm afraid I agree.

This could be really big.

I've been trying to interpret (again) recent satellite images of the area around our wellhead area north of Pointe Noire. This is easily identified by a kink in the N5 coastal road.

The websites I've been using (if anyone wants to take a look) are

https://discover.digitalglobe.com/

https://zoom.earth/#-4.534546,11.789312,16z,sat

and Google Earth

The different websites have images from different dates so it is possible to date the times of various constructions in the locality.

As I've already noted within the last 18 months the Chinese appear to have built 6 well pads within 1 km to 3 km from our own well pad. The closest is actually on the boundary of their licence and our licence area. They couldn't get any closer if they tried. These don't appear on Google Earth, as they are too recent but Digital Globe imagery from 26th January 2019 clearly shows them forming a neat "X" just to the SE of our rig area.

This

https://zoom.earth/#-4.533038,11.778741,16z,sat

is a slightly older image which dates from around mid 2016 (judging by other construction) which shows the AAOG well pad facility on the left and a much larger facility under construction around 1 km to the SE. This new facility, presumably again Chinese is again on the boundary of their licence and ours.

It shows various ground works and ramparts under construction, which look oil related. Later photographs on Google Earth show part of this facility after constriction (but unfortunately mostly not of high resolution), with what appear to be a queue of HGV oil tankers waiting to load.

This was the first large facility to be built in the area.

The closest Chinese drill pad to AAOG was constructed immediately N of this facility in late 2018.

4 km to the S of us another large facility has been constructed. It is very large and looks to have storage tanks close by. most of the facility is completely covered by a red roof, preventing identification of its purpose. However a Google Earth image from March 2017 shows part of the facility prior to the roof being built. This indicates it to be some sort of oil/gas related processing facility with many pipes etc showing.

A jetty has been constructed to allow ships to dock and presumably deliver/take off cargo.

Around 1 km inland of this large red roofed facility is some sort of satellite communications centre shown centred here

https://zoom.earth/#-4.571427,11.817177,16z,sat

this appears to have been the first facility constructed.

The overall impression is of massive, presumably Chinese, investment right on our doorstep.

If we've put in $20M to get our facilities upgraded and drill 103, then the Chinese investment to build all this must be $100m+.

I can't find any reference on the internet to these new facilities - however there is an aerial video - another post to follow....

Yes, there have been some big buys over the last week or so.

Maybe some read across from EPO of people are expecting this to be in play shortly.

I had never really supported the theory that Mastercard were bound to make an offer for this eventually, however the recent action over at EPO has changed my mind.

I would say most people here know the information before release - it is simply a matter of defining which particular piece of information it will be.

(Assuming there is to be an RNS today, of course......)

Yes, DS and JB are probably looking for a distressed asset, similar to Tilapia, some P but lots of E potential.

Probably looking to pay a similar price, $5M to $10M, as the present operator (whoever) hasn't got any money to invest and may lose the licence if they don't.

At 1,800 bpd we will be getting in $1.5M per month based even on 56%.

Maybe SNOC will give us a bit of a bung, maybe not.

If not we could be on $2.7M a month for around 8 months. That is $22.5M - enough to pay for 104 and a new asset - and borrowing hasn't even come into it.

DS was quite clear - there is not foreseeable prospect of a fundraising at this level as it simply not only dilutes shareholders but will also dilute himself and the other execs with options at 20p. They aren't on big salaries and will get their rewards through the options.

But more importantly there isn't any need for a funding with around $22.5M due by year end.

And on his present track record he will bring in the 1,800bpd by the end of March.

Read his lips - it is all fairly simple, and all adds up.

It is still there!

If Bill is saying £1M coming in per month very soon and that is a net figure, then that is roughly equivalent to 56% of 1,800bpd @ $50pb.

1,800 x 50 = $90,000per day x 30 = $2,700,000 per month.

$2,700,000 per month x 56% = $1,520,000 per month / 1.3 = £1,163,000 per month to AAOG.

The figures appear to add up.

And no wonder the Chinese have just built 6 oil drilling pads all within 2 km of our block!!!!!

Even if we only get $50/b, that's $2,700,000 per month.

56% is $1,520,000 per month.

But if SNPC don't pay the $10m we just take it out of their share of the revenue.

More than enough to fund 104 in its entirely, even if it were to come in at $15 million.

I cannot believe that DS has just plucked these figures out of thin air, without doing the flow testing.

Particularly as the figures are 600bpd from Mengo and 1200bpd from R2.

R2 was meant to be around 400 and Mengo about 500.

The 31/1/19 presentation specifically says up to 250 from R2, and up to 500 from Mengo, so the new figures must be based on something.

If it is flow testing, the NOMAD will be all over this and it will have to be RNS'd before the market opens.

Happy days.......

1800bpd - about double what was expected.

Flow rate RNS in the morning?

I would think flow test results within the next week or so, followed by licence extension and then CPR in around 4 weeks time.

Then there will be no holding this back.

Although he will be talking to a different audience - maybe more "sophisticated" investors - although I wouldn't know sophistication if i fell over it........

As Mastercard are spoiling the party for Visa over at EPO, what about Visa putting in a bid for ESG.

Okay, ESG only own 36% of Homesend, but they could force Mastercard to bid here.

And Homesend are set up as an independent company. The last thing Mastercard would want is Visa getting an insiders look at what they were doing.

They'd effectively be saying - you leave EPO alone and we'll let you get on with it at Homesend.

Bearing in mind many tens of millions of shares were traded on Friday there could be some interesting holding notices due tomorrow.

Could show which way this is going to develop over the next few weeks.

10/1 against.

It will come, but not just yet.

Thanks Sl.

It gets even more interesting if you look really carefully at Digital Globe and compare what is on their photographs to what is on the AAOG website and the prospectus.

From the DG photographs of the pads on 26th January 2019 some of them clearly have equipment already installed, difficult to tell what, but maybe tanks etc.

The closest pad appears to have nothing on it but there appears to be a construction facility? immediately to the south of that.

This suggests that this pad may have only recently been cleared, and at the other pads construction may still be ongoing. All the work has been carried out in the last 20 months or so, as the original pad had only just been cleared in April 2017. In the DG high resolution image you can actually see a truck in the middle of tipping soil, so as to level off the pad area!

CNOOC must be fairly certain something good must be down there otherwise they wouldn't construct 6/10 pads within such a short period of time.

The closest CNOOC pad to us is around 1km from our 103 well, as of two weeks ago there appears to be no equipment installed, or at least which cannot be seen with the resolution available.

This pad is interesting for several reasons.

It almost appears in the video on AAOG's own website!

At 1.16 in the video there is a wide angled aerial view of the site. The CNOOC pad is only around 100 metres out of shot. It is not clear when this video was taken, but maybe it is no coincidence that the wide angle shot is cut where it is, so as not to show rival activity.

Also on page 89 of the prospectus at fig 5.1 a structure map of Djeno and boundary of our licence area is shown. The boundary of our licence is around 1 km east of 103, which is exactly where the CNOOC drilling pad is located. They've put it as close to the boundary of their licence as they can get it without actually encroaching on our licence area.

It is also clear from the Djeno structure map that this structure may well extend inland (although this is not actually shown on the map), so if that is indeed the case, then the new CNOOC well pads are likely confirming that. No doubt they will have done their own seismic etc before commencing construction.

Question is what are the CNOOC wells targeting?

R1,2,3?

Mengo, Djeno or even Vandji?

No doubt all will become clear in due course.

But it is looking like we are in something of a sweet spot.