Member Info for skier1

There is no indication of the placing price until after the book closes. Quite a risky placing. This still looks way overvalued, and probably won't be anywhere near the ideal £2-3 level it needs to be at.

China is Australia's no.1 trading partner...

Australia would be forced by NATO sanctions to de-trade with China, or China would turn its missiles in the direction of Sydney. Either scenario is bad news for Australia and HFEL.

There is significant "China risk" here.

All the major Western countries are in the same boat. UK, EU, US, all the same. High inflation, worker shortages, airport chaos. Everyone cut during Covid... everyone is struggling to retool and rehire after Covid.

UK exports to the EU are higher in Apr 2022 than Apr 2019, before Brexit.

It is time to stop the Brexit hysteria. Brexit won. It is over. Time to move on and face the new world.

Sounds like wishful thinking ;-)

China is a huge risk for this fund. If President Xi decides he fancies a holiday in Taiwan over the next few years, or even a vague rumour of it, this will sink under a quid (£1) in no time.

The average PE ratio for Western banks worldwide today is only around 6-9, so LLOY is not wildly undervalued at the 6 level. Especially given the overhang of roaring inflation, recession, windfall tax, bank closures, monkeypox, superflu, covid, and thermonuclear war.

In the near-term, LLOY needs to avoid a close below 41p, as that will signal a push back down toward the 35p range.

Dow back under 30k and in the -20% bear zone.

Rates going up.
Sentiment, growth and profits coming down.

The 0.25% today does look low.

But the BoE has one eye on the red Tories' clueless tax rises from Q2 2022. They have ripped a huge chunk of cash from people's pockets.

And the BoE will have one eye on the M4 money supply. That forward-looking indicator has been pointing to a sharp slowdown in UK inflation from Q4 2022.

Yup, big cash for tiny revenue and a few pots of cream.

And the FTSE100 today is pretty much back to 1999 levels, again. What a cr*p index.

As predicted, the Fed raise yesterday was 0.75%, and the Dow spiked 500+ points.

Back down again today, possibly 1,000 points. The bear-bull tug-o-war is in full effect.

Not good news for LLOY. It wants to "bowl up" to 50p, but the Dow will not let it.

As predicted, months ago, THG plunging down into the 50-100p range.

Looking at the momentum and charts here, this now looks set to slide under the 50p threshold.

Nobody wants to catch a falling knife in a recession.

A 0.75% hike will show the Fed is serious about reversing US inflation.

If the Fed piles in with a 0.75% "shock and awe" rate hike tomorrow (Weds), it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Dow rally 500+ points.

Don't get too carried away. So far, this is a low-grade lithium mine, entering the hurricane of a global GDP recession, and a lithium industry price forecasted (by Goldman Sachs) to collapse -70% by 2023.

"What's not to like here..."

Err, the share price has plunged -24% in weeks, while they keep blowing money on marginal buybacks and showering tons of free bonuses and shares on execs and staff.

Cash is among the best-performing major investment categories of 2022.

YTD 2022...

* Cash = +1%
* FTSE = -4%
* LLOY = -14%
* Nasdaq = -28%

Anyone who put £100k in cash around Xmas will now have...

* Cash = £101k
* FTSE = £96k
* LLOY = £86k
* Nasdaq = £72k

Take it as a valuable life lesson.

It is well known that 90-95% of oil-gas-metal explorers fail or lose money.

You're basically pouring millions down a big black hole, while the CEO sits in the desert or forest getting a tan.

"I believe this is a time to be very frugal and be mindful of the risks involved with any investment in the current economic conditions".

You're 6-12 months too late!

The time to start switching to cash was in H2 2021, not 2022.

Switzerland always says one thing... and quietly does another. Most Swiss take no notice of rent "controls". They charge whatever they like. Average Swiss rent per home today is around *£2,000 a month*. And the population still has unimaginable wealth that the UK can only dream of.

Regarding UK wages, they go up relatively to match houses. Home costs were 20-50% of wages last century. They are 20-50%, this century.

What's more, UK "soaring" house prices take no account of home upgrades and extensions. Factor out those expansions, and UK house prices have only risen in real terms a tiny average of +1% a year since the 1970s.

Let's repeat that and make it clear.

1. Most everyone rents in Switzerland -- and it is just about the richest major country in the world
2. Home costs in the UK have been 20-50% of wages for decades. Little has changed
3. UK house prices are not soaring. Real rises average +1% a year for decades. Wages, taxes, multi-earners, and finance multiples have risen to match

Everyone has a roof over their head. There is no stigma to renting. House prices remain (relatively) as affordable as ever.

It is time to stop the housing hysteria.