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The NSI Act review can be extended by 45 working days I think it is. This potential for an extension is part of the review process if required and Thomson is just saying that the 30 day period isn't absolute.

Article link @Timetokill pasted is interesting re Kretinsky making most of his money transporting Russian gas to Europe. That has been his main source of revenue and could become worth nothing any time soon and the risk gets bigger day by day. European governments committing to reduce dependence on Russian gas, plus Russia using gas as a blackmailing tool mean K's former cash cow is much reduced and could be wiped out as another casualty of the war.
The other side of the coin is that IDS market value is much reduced and with the loss of gas transit revenues, the significance of IDS to Kretinsky becomes more important. Circumstances have also dictated some loss of control over events and will have affected the timing of his decisions, and his perspective on risk. He knows the value of IDS assets, the market value of the business, how to improve profitability, and that as a wealthy man a recession is the best time to get what you want cheaply. I believe he is a man in a hurry and if Rees Mogg allows wants to accelerate his plan take over IDS.

@Angershakz, I don't think NSI process would take into account such a circumstance of the transaction parties when releasing the result. All Rees Mogg is legally required to do is publish the final order. I would love to be there if during that meeting the order came through allowing Kretinsky to up his stake. Maybe the date of the meeting with the CWU has been chosen deliberately to coincide with the release date of the investigation.
Personally I think Rees Moggs instincts would be to go with Kretinsky, encouraging laissez-faire whilst sticking the boot in the CWU.

@Timetokill, You are correct, here is a quote from the article:
"The review process under the NSI Act is relatively opaque, particularly when compared with the transparency normally associated with the Competition and Markets Authority’s merger investigations. The only document addressed to the transaction parties that the SoS is legally required to publish is a final order prohibiting a transaction or permitting it subject to remedies. Therefore, a call-in decision does not need to be published."
Hopefully it ensures that no insiders will get a heads up regarding progress and outcome of the inquiry. Maybe news tomorrow?

Quite a lot of general info concerning how practioners implement this act which would explain why we have heard nothing regarding VESA and National Security and Investment Act, plus a couple of examples. Silence and secrecy seems to be part of the modus operandi, which is the way it should be. I'm thinking monday 10th is when the 30 working days are up.
https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/w-036-0486?contextData=(sc.Default)&transitionType=Default&firstPage=true

Thanks JB. Would be good to get Teslo's input as to how this can happen. i.e steady increase in sp whilst sell volumes outnumber buys by 4X or 5X. Market maker sets the price so he would have had to facilitate the sp rise. Sounds like a dubious practice to me. Next big news for RM is decision RE Vesa at the latest Monday 10th Oct, by my reckoning 30 working days are up then. If Vesa don't get approval sp will take a tumble.

Thanks for responses. My question though was whether one is able to observe short positions being created or closed in real time if the sp moves counter to capital flows without having to wait for it to show up on short tracker if it goes over .5%, or never showing up if the position doesn't go over .5%

AngerSharkz, how long after a short position has been opened must it be declared, I thought it was a couple of days?

If short positions wer opened yesterday then someone is expecting a retrace back down through the 180's. Vesa review outcome is due by Monday 10th Oct. at latest, so someone gambling it will be turned down?

I spent a large part of the day watching the RMG ticker and was perplexed that whilst the sp was steadily moving up, Sell volumes were outnumbering Buys by 4x or 5x, so the sp should have fallen. I had a look for reasons as to why the sp can increase when sell volumes outnumber buy volumes, and found this:"The price going up is determined by the movement of the bid and the ask prices. The control over that lies with the market maker. ""But you will often see a day where you have a price rise accompanied by capital outflow Or conversely a price drop accompanied by capital inflow. That is created by the short transaction of the trading period. So if the price rises and there is capital outflow that tells you that short positions are being established. If the price falls and there’s capital inflow that tells you that short positions are being closed."Anybody know what is meant by 'the short transaction of the trading period'? Would be useful to be able to spot when short positions are being opened or closed

By my reckoning 30 working day review period of VESA under National security Investment act has got less than a fortnight to be completed. When Kretinsky set out on his stake building quest in RMG he will have had a target price for the 30% of the company he can buy on the market before he has to make an offer for the company. I believe he will get the go ahead and the current turmoil in the company means he is probably going to be able to buy the company more cheaply than he initially planned, giving him a contingency fund. He will target the expensive USO and reduce the number of mail delivery days per week. Declining letter volumes and CWU are creating the conditions to give him the leverage to make strong coherent arguments to reduce the USO. There will be a reduction in employees as he streamlines the business, probably through natural wastage, thereby reducing redundancy payments. The money he will save buying RMG compared to what he expected to have to pay will effectively insulate him financially from industrial unrest for a long period of time.
RMG is currently a basket case with huge potential and has invested a lot of cash in new parcel hubs but the work force needs to be placated and brought back on side. If he does buy RMG he will make an absolute killing and this chat board will be over.

Russia and China both have a semblance of being autocracies, with presidents for life. This is the image of strength and stability that they like to project to their people and the world. Whether the China rumour is true or not, if the generals become seriously upset with the direction of their country, they have the power and connections to make it happen.
Generals, FSB, and oligarchs are the power bases in Russia. I doubt that Putins rhetoric regarding nukes has gone down well with the military because it is clearly the last resort of a gambler who has tried everything else, failed and ruined the country's image and prestige. Oligarchs have seen their ability to live the life that wealth brings curtailed and many would like the war to be over and get back to making money. Who knows which way the FSB would go, but early in the war Ukraine were saying that they had informant's from the FSB helping them.
Putin's popularity is waning despite the nationalists, and if it comes to a choice between Mother Russia versus a leader on a never-ending losing streak, Mother Russia will be the choice and Putin 'retired'.

Rumour of coup by Chinese general Li Qioming with current leader Xi jinpeng under house arrest and not been seen in public since SCO meeting in Samarkand on 14th September. China has issued no denials or response.

If this turns out to be true it likely illustrates how regime change could occur in Russia, ie. led by generals and happening overnight. I haven't read anything as to whether Li Qioming is more dovish than Xi jinpeng, but Xi jinpeng has been ratcheting things up re Taiwan and been aggressively entering Taiwanese waters and airspace in Taiwan.
Interesting times.

Angersharkz, to me energy price hikes due to Putin and his war have been the catalyst for inflation and resultant tank in the general market. If the war ended and there was a new regime in Russia with 'cleanish' hands things would change massively. It would completely change the current narrative and uncertainty. If energy prices went back to normal levels energy price caps set in europe and uk would be much cheaper to fund requiring less central government borrowing. The other things I mentioned are more specific to RMG and would help the sp bounce but the underlying downward trend would continue.
Looking at the conscription just announced in Russia, these new troops will be rushed to the front with poor training, moral, bad kit, and resupply problems facing a battle hardened ukrainian army. Russian army could collapse because they don't want to fight leaving Putin to either use nukes or give up. I would be stunned if Russia followed the nuclear path. I believe Putin is more likely to be removed from power and a rapprochement made with the west.

RMG chart looking a bit dire. I was thinking about what could generate a bounce or contribute to slide in s.p. :1) Kretinsky gets the go ahead re. National security and investment act. (10th/11th Oct at latest?).2) Putin falls out of a window, Ukraine war ends, energy prices return to normal levels, inflation falls.3) CWU strike collapses, return to work, new T&C's applied.4) UPS Q2 results (25th oct.)5) RMG half year results (around 20th Nov)This is hardly an exhaustive list, just some of the things which seem significant to me in medium term. Any additions welcome.

If Rees Mogg is making the decision, he may also want to make a statement with this decision so early into his tenure. He may be the most right-wing tory in this government which makes a great deal of difference. However, he will be tough on the sale of businesses which are deemed important to national security and technology transfer. I don't think RMG fall into this category, and I think it absurd to believe Kretinsky would be viewed as a friend of Putin. He would be quite horrified at the suggestion, with an invading, murderous russian army a stones throw from his own country.

Oligarch, Kretinsky will have had people looking at all the rules and regs for a long time. He will already have anticipated every rule and regulation concerning what he can and cannot do re. business and union laws, and have a path through which he can navigate to buy the business as cheaply as possible, and then run the company at a profit. He will also have anticipated any conditions attached, particularly the USO, and will have his ducks all lined up, he is not a novice or a fool. Furthermore, any benefits shareholders may accrue will be secondary to his own, though hopefully they will align to make RMG more efficient, profitable, and clear goals which the union can see as being mutually beneficial. Change must come, particularly in this economic environment.

I'm leaning towards thinking the Govt. will allow selling RMG to Kretinsky. This appears to be a more right-wing , free market, version of the tories. They will look at RMG's problems and see the union as a big part of them, dictating to a business how the company should be ran, which is anathema to a business orientated government.
Conditions will be attached, particularly the USO.

It could be less than 30 working days, but I think with the passing of Queen Elizabeth II it's more likely to be later rather than sooner.

Anger, I believe the review period is 30 working days, which would exclude weekends and bank holidays, taking it to around 7th or 10th Oct depending on how many bank holidays are in this period.