Member Info for simx

Thanks isle, yes, CWU should be more careful this time.

AS, must say I haven't really considered DK's position in the current mess that is RMG. He is a successful businessman and as such will be wanting to lower his average price, and the current 5% return is attractive. Doubt if he would bid for the whole company though, managing RMG appears to be a conundrum nobody has managed to achieve, and the risk attached has the potential to make a very rich man become a beggar.

Big stakes being played for with CWU, With an estimate of £40m being the cost/saving of each 1% of the CWU pay deal, so potentially a massive hit to future profits. UNITE deal will be chickenfeed in comparison, and how the negotiations between RMG and the 2 unions are conducted will reflect this. CWU current stance may have an element of posturing at the moment, if they demand 9% prices would have to increase significantly, undermining RMG's competitiveness, although this could be mitigated by the fact that all competitors have similar cost pressures. We still don't know the new offer to UNITE, but I feel that RMG's negotiations with the CWU will be a lot tougher. The wage demand is one thing, the change in lifestyle imposed on posties by the new working conditions is potentially even more onerous. There will be a lot of horse trading re. pay rise v conditions. I'm leaning towards RMG workers joining their CWU brethren and going on strike at the end of July.

Angersharkz, as I implied, Mr T. could appear to be incompetent, a reckless gambler or both, with the collateral damage of the CWU now knowing how he plays his cards, weakening his position in negotiations with them. So far everything that has happened has been predictable and thus hopefully anticipated and prepared for by the company. If he's caved in then he's had it, because that is not a reasonable backup plan. I think his reputation would be better served if he hasn't offered enough to avert a strike by UNITE. Hopefully we'll know soon what the offer to UNITE is which will be very illuminating. This could be his Maggie v scargil moment and he's decided to take on the union. Think I read somewhere that his father was a miner.

I thought UNITE ballot was now about striking on 20-22nd July, ballot result in on 19th? CWU strike ballot result in also on 19th July. Not sure how many concessions can be given to UNITE without CEO making himself look like a weak fool whose cunning plan failed. Not a good look for a CEO and would destroy the aura of toughness he is trying to project to the CWU. There must be something in the new proposals put to UNITE otherwise it wouldn't have been put to the membership but I think it's questionable whether it will be enough. CWU will be watching how this plays out carefully.

Isle, don't think he's for turning. He may have believed there was a tiny chance UNITE would accept their offer, but realistically always had this path of a new offer planned. Will be interesting to see how much is in the new offer to make UNITE put it to their members.

Royal mail have made new proposals to Unite who are putting the proposals to their members and will ballot members from tomorrow until 18th. Work to rule has been suspended, strike may still happen depending on outcome of ballot.

I was expecting the market to give some sense of the direction of travel this week, but the sp has just moved sideways on low volumes and narrow range.

Angersharkz, UNITE vote for strike action was announced on 29th June and sp fell 15p to 268p despite the fact that it was nailed on that they would vote yes to a strike. The CWU will vote to strike and the effect will be many times more damaging than UNITE's action. SP has already touched 258 a couple of times. Anticipation of the dividend may create support. Official Govt. retail figures for June come out towards end of month which could have an effect. My guess is around 240 before exdiv date.

Regarding Olli's question, re: can the buying dept. of Blackrock lend shares to their selling dept. ?
I also had this suspicion and thinking that the Buy was another way of giving additional leverage on the share price to Blackrock.
JB discovered the trade type to be TNCP which is defined as 'Non Price Forming Transactions and Non Price Contribution to Discovery Indicators' , suggesting the 5.66m Buy is not allowed to affect the sp, and the trade data isn't allowed to be included (by the broker?) to calculate where the supply curve and the demand curve intersect when setting the price.
So, now that Blackrock own these shares in a separate buying department, do the conditions attached to the buy still apply? If this is the case then when Blackrock decide to sell these shares the broker can't allow their sale to affect the sp, ie. they can't be used to drive the sp down. The conditions attached to these shares would then be voided on completion of the sale. This would make sense to me because otherwise there would be a huge conflict of interest .
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if there were ways that transfer of stock from Blackrocks buying to selling dept. could be hidden, or if the conditions attached to the buy were immediately voided and did not apply to their future sale. It's all very dubious and a struggle to find definitive answers.

Angersharkz, thanks for the info. We do know blackrock's short position is 19,024,400 shares, and on the 4th July they bought 5,663,000 shares.... so a proportionately significant buy. Could this be the preparation for another assault on the current sp of 267.7 ?

Just done a quick sum, which I hope is correct, please check and point out any errors.
Total RMG shares = 956,000,000
Blackrock short = 1.99%
Number of shares in Blackrock short = 956,000,000 x 0.0199 = 19,024,400
Number of shares in the Buy = 5,663,000
= 29.8% reduction.
I'm either very wrong, or this is a huge reduction in the Blackrock short position. If it's the former, you won't hear from me for a while.

Angersharkz,
you make a good point, It stood out like a dogs b******s . And yes to your other questions.

JB, surely yes, I was watching the ticker and the trade had no impact on the sp. which would be bizarre if it were just a normal buy. Just found this:
'price discovery involves finding where supply and demand meet. In economics, the supply curve and the demand curve intersect at a single price, which then allows a transaction to occur. '
The trade isn't allowed to affect the sp or any data which may be used to determine the sp.

4th July is independence day, quiet day for trading so that goes with keeping it under the radar. If one assumed that the buyer would specify the price they want to pay when the order is placed, then the broker would need to ensure the sp allowed for that price to be achieved, which could be easier effect on a quiet day.

Do you know how long it would take for large orders to be placed and filled?

04-Jul-22 12:46:06 272.00 5,663,000 Buy* 270.70 270.90 15m O
Barely touched the sp. Could it be a short reducing their position?

Angersharkz, not sure what would be charged for level 2, probably wouldn't be worth my while. Only dealing 1000+ shares, with hargreaves, who are fairly expensive with their commission @ £12 each buy and sell. Every now and then I get enthusiastic and work out when I want to get back in again. My main aim to be out for the big drop, which always happens with rmg, get back in at the bottom(£2 would be nice), knowing that this will climb back to £6 with a 30p+ dividend.
Nonetheless, managing to accumulate more shares despite the loose game plan and grossly inefficient way I'm managing things haha.

Just made a sell, showing up as a buy on this site's ticker(AGAIN!). It's such a simple thing to flag a trade correctly, which makes me think that whoever is responsible benefits from the increased doubt and confusion.

The 138k is a buy then. However didn't move the sp that much. Other much smaller buys had a much greater effect, eg the 27k buy.