The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Here is some of todays data from US. I would interpret this data as the US economy and inflationary pressure cooling. This should take the pressure off interest rate increases. The market liked it. Hope it displays as formatted:
Time Event Actual Dev Consensus Previous
FRIDAY, JANUARY 6
15:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM)(Nov) -1.8% -1.30 -0.9% 0.4%
15:00 USD ISM Services Employment Index(Dec) 49.8 -0.20 50.2 51.5
15:00 USD ISM Services New Orders Index(Dec) 45.2 -4.85 58.5 56
15:00 USD ISM Services PMI(Dec) 49.6 -3.23 55 56.5
15:00 USD ISM Services Prices Paid(Dec) 67.6 -1.24 71.5 70
12th April 2022 Vesa released RNS informing of share aquisition at around 330p. I think his January 2022 purchase was around 430p. He'll almost certainly wait until the January purchase price has lapsed re its effect on the price he would have to pay per share if he were to make a takeover bid. However, he will also be aware that by April confidence may be returning to the markets and the causes of todays depressed markets could be unwinding. CWU strike will probably also be dead in the water by then which will be a big positive for IDS sp. If he does intend to make a bid these factors are certainly going to influence Kretinsky's timing.
Agreed Maximus. Ward has already lost. If strikes don't work on Black Friday and Christmas, then they aren't going to work in january, february, march, april.... . Problem for Ward is that this dispute is as much about maintaining the cashflow from CWU members as anything else which has compromised his approach.
JB absolutely correct regarding the deliberately misleading way he's written this. I think most of us were initially uncertain about what the situation was on first read of Wards statement. No disrespect meant to posties, but amongst any group there will be a high percentage of people who would be misled by it. It's ambiguity with intent to confuse, but I think it will backfire because people will see through it, many of them CWU members. By now many CWU members resolve will be being tested, and some will see this for what it is, a lie. Putting their livelihoods at risk on the words of a man out to deceive them who as you say made it appear management co-wrote the proposal, and then reneged on it. His behaviour is beyond the pale. Telegraph article showed the unity of management. When the dusts settled I reckon that Wards more likely to have gone than Thompson.
This is really peculiar behaviour from Dave Ward. He's either opened the whisky 5 days early or he's desperate, because he knows he's a one trick pony, checkmated by the £1.7 billion war chest that isn't a war chest. But everyone knows it is a war chest. He's had the arrogance to write the joint statement with zero concessions which he must know will be rejected. The attempt to bounce this with a 2 day notice period adds to it's pointlessness.
He must have a reason for this, however 'out there' it may be. Perhaps this is an attempt to add another trick to his repertoire, win the media war and public opinion? If so he's going to be hugely disappointed , because the one thing that can't be argued against is that all management are totally up for winning this battle. Maybe more strikers are returning to work, or he's realised that strikes in January will have a fraction of importance compared to the strikes that management have already seen out. Something is making Ward nervous. Did I mention the £1.7 billion war chest?
@Angersharkz, I think the telegraph article says it all regarding where we are now. Management are united and have the support of £1.7 billion which translates to being able to withstand strike action for a very long time. They are taking CWU's strikes targeted at the most profitable days on the chin. Once we're through to the new year and volumes drop off strikes will be far less damaging, and more posties will have returned to work clearing any backlog. Dave Wards a one trick pony with no strategy. The next strike ballot will be very revealing and in the meantime the commitment of many strikers is crumbling.
Reading the article I don't see any sign's of Management weakening. For a while I've been waiting to see a united front from management, there it is, Thompson's certainly not on his way out, plus £1.7 billion war chest. It's an absolute commitment to winning the dispute and remodelling the business. Has this always been part of their strategy?; mutual antagonism was anticipated from the beginning, draw out the strike CWU helped with that, then when the strikers are beginning to feel the pinch and more than a trickle are breaking the strike, hit them with a show of unity, commitment and the power of a lot of money to back up your hand. This could be a strategic masterstroke and will certainly demoralise some of the strikers, with less money and homes to heat in Siberian temperatures. The managements not for turning, once again Dave Wards been outmaneuvered.
Here are the figures. Pretty good:
Wednesday December 14 2022 Actual Previous Consensus Forecast
07:00 AM
GB
Inflation Rate YoY NOV 10.7% 11.1% 10.9% 11%
07:00 AM
GB
Inflation Rate MoM NOV 0.4% 2% 0.6% 0.7%
07:00 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate YoY NOV 6.3% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6%
07:00 AM
GB
Core Inflation Rate MoM NOV 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6%
@scamp, I think this is the trade you're talking about:
25-Nov-22 17:01:33 245.19893 4,108 Buy* 241.00 241.10 10.07k O
I think google use the last trade of the day not marked as unknown as the closing sp price. In this case it's a BUY of 4108 shares and an anomaly rather than a reflection of the end of day sp. Have a look at the share trades page.
Interesting JB, Qube research taken a new position of .54% and citadel up .12%. Maybe they think sp has topped out and are anticipating turbulence as the CWU and management confrontation continues to be deadlocked. RMG's plans for a remade remodelled business are going to be driven through but I doubt it will be plain sailing.
@Anger, don't forget the ****up when the CWU had to forgo a couple of their planned strike days because the paperwork wasn't correctly formulated. Tragic for the CWU membership that their leaders couldn't even get that right. As stated by many others the biggest losers will be those who lose their jobs whilst DW continues to draw a very fat salary. Easy to be bellicose and idealistic when the consequences of your actions don't affect you.
JB, shorts look for momentum then amplify and control it. Noone expected zero progress after so many days of talks, and the content and tone of the CWU release suggest arbitration is going nowhere. SP rose with the negotiations because no one believed DW would commit hari kari but he is, in slow motion. Tomorrow will be interesting trying to pick the bones out of nettle soup.
I thought the price was either the highest price he paid in the last 12 months or fair market value, whichever is highest. Kretinsky could easily reduce the highest price he paid in the last 12 months just by letting the clock run down for 6 months. Fair market value may be the basis for valuing the company. GLS is predicted to make 380m Euros profit this year, with high single digit growth year on year. Got to be worth 3-4 billion euros. Add to that RM's value, though I have no idea how to value RM's assets and liabilites, although goodwill has taken a hammering.
@Dowsie, I believe the uso is something that Kretinsky identified very early on as an obligation which severely hampers RMs profitability and unfairly allows competitors to dump the very expensive last mile of mail delivery onto RM. This is not a level playing field and he will have many angles of attack and levers to put before the government who will be sympathetic to his perspective. The uso will not disappear but it will be reduced as mail declines, addresses increase and it becomes increasingly loss making in its current form.
Pretty much nailed on that VESA will make a bid for the company, not sure that he will asset strip, but will rationalise assets to fit his plan. Kretinsky will have a lot of leverage with the govt. to change the USO and streamline operations. Government will let him manage the business as he sees fit as long as he fulfils a reduced uso, and he will make a success of it. Why asset strip when he has a readymade cash cow and the conditions falling into place to milk it for many years? Asset stripping is a one off payoff. He already has experience of this type of company and knows how to make it work. From the beginning he always had a plan.
CWU are incompetent, a barrier to progress and kretinsky will tell them how the business is to be ran and anyone who doesn't like it can go, but those who stay and get onboard with his vision can expect a much better future.
Many CWU members will be in despair with the latest display of their unions failure to competently manage their end of the relationship with their members who are losing money every strike day, damaging the viability of their employer. For many members the CWU's negligence and poor performance in this dispute will be reason to cross a picket line, especially if they are mortgage holders.