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Core CPI rose from 6.8% in April to 7.1% in May. Average regular wages were 7.3 per cent higher annually in the three months to May, matching the previous three months. That is the joint highest since records began in 2001, excluding the period when data were warped by Covid upheaval.

Base rate currently 5%. How high will rates have to go to control it? I think at it could go above 6%. There's going to be a lot more volatility before inflation is under control and the market will go up and down with it.

Maybe we'll find out if we're reclaiming lost market share?

As you said, the market is not finished yet and there will be a few more ups and downs in the macro economy, and the SP will follow. Regarding interest rates, I'm not sure they've been effective yet, but there will be a lag between their announcement and tightening of the economy. This article from daily mail is interesting, is inflation becoming built in to the economy? Certainly food for thought :

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12285801/Fears-rates-HIGHER-figures-wages-soaring.html

Money, there's also the Q1 update around 20th July.

Thanks ND

Unusual trade at 223p, 7p below the close price:

04-Jul-23 17:39:00 223.00 4,800,000 Unknown* 230.10 230.30 11m O

Significant fall in business confidence.

The Institute of Directors said its economic confidence index slumped to minus 31 from minus 6 in May, the lowest level since December and the aftermath of last autumn’s political turmoil.

Here's a link to the article on Bloomberg:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-business-confidence-slumps-after-inflation-shock-iod-says-1.1940309

TheMoney, haha very funny, definitely your style of of writing Anger. Yes, the board has been a bit flat recently, and yes I do have optimism longer term for IDS. The argument with interest rates seemed to revolve around the polarities of either controlling inflation or tipping the economy into recession. BOE have upped by .5% deciding recession is the lesser of the two evils. Absolutely correct, inflation must be nailed, then interest rates will revert to more tolerable levels. Before that happens though people will tighten their belts and the economy will contract. Not good for SP's.

Was a very funny joke Money. Glad you're back, usually have a good grip on the facts and sharp on the response to BS .

Red, No idea why you would 'expect' me to anticipate a recommendation, but generally I recommend a post if I find it useful, as would anybody else.

Yes, I am invested here, and have been since the IPO. I am of the opinion that with their infrastructure and experience they should be taking market share from competitors. Currently this is not happening, and so currently my optimism is being tested.

The last 30+ comments have got zero recommendations. Tiresome, ego driven drivel nothing at all to do with IDS.

Getting back to the point;

.5% hike in base rate.

Inflation stuck at 8.7%.

June's PMI readings worse than expected.

Uncertainty regarding CWU ballot.

Dreadful full year results.

I try to be optimistic regarding the future of IDS, but at the moment it's difficult to find positive news in either the macro economy or anything specific to IDS.

BoE interest rate up .5% to 5%.

Thanks for that JB. However they've got Citadel advisors Europe, 0.79%; Shortracker is usually accurate and has a more recent record of Citadel advisors Europe, 0.49%, 5th May 2023. Nonetheless it confirms that disclosed shorts are a fraction of actual shorts. Not sure how much room there is for shorts to make a profit. Put shortrackers chart against the sp. chart. The correlation between shorts and sp is clear.

JB, I've been wondering what the 'actual' short positions are rather than the 'reported' short positions. The way short positions are required to be reported means that we don't know if/when they are actually closed.

Qube raised their short by .02% to 0.5% on 30th May 2023. Their last reported position was on 28th Nov 2022 when the sp was 235.5. During this period they could have extended or reduced their positions any number of times if they remained below the reporting threshold. I had a look back through the list to find the shorters who most recently have fallen below the 0.5% reporting threshold:

Citadel Advisors LLC 0.49%, 6th June,2023;

Citadel advisors Europe, 0.49%, 5th May 2023;

Worldquant 0.48%, 4th Jan, 2023;

Blackrock Investment 0.45%, 8th Dec, 2022.

Considering Qube's position has been maintained below the threshold for more than 6 months, it's certain that others also have open short positions. The actual total short position could be at least 3 or 4 times more than the reported short positions.

I'm wondering how this pans out. All of the shorts know that the sp will eventually bottom out and currently all are in profit. SP has been trading in a very narrow range for the last 10 days and unless this is the new normal, which I doubt, something has to give.

The question is, are we approaching the point at which the shorts take their profits and start buying back in order to close their positions? Dog eats dog and no one wants to be left behind, would be pretty good for the sp.

Anger, I once worked for a US pharmaceutical company worth billions who banned the issue of pens until further notice. It seemed quite a strange thing to do, and although I didn't consider it a problem, I was slightly perplexed. Looking back on it, the purpose was to focus the minds of people on waste in general by planting a seed in their minds that all equipment and materials have a cost. The manager was an American so maybe it was a psychological jolt method.

Anger, yes, to all those who were worried that Kretinsky might struggle to make ends meet, not only is he's more than comfortable, he's had an absolutely stellar year.

Article about Kretinsky's net worth:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/royal-mail-investor-czech-sphinx-to-pocket-650m-energy-firm-payout/ar-AA1bB85P

JB, that's positive news, maybe a response by the CWU to the possibility of RM's offer being pulled. Not sure when the video was posted, but sp has gone up almost 6p from 193.5 to 199.1 in the 50 minutes since your post. Investors want a deal and some certainty in amongst this chaos.

Brock, "quietly quitting" and "sauntering" are not in your contract, your only entitlement is your self.

You quote Jonny Rotten; "Ever Feel like you've been cheated?". Go and look in a mirror, the person staring back at you is cheating me.

Broch, good for you, when you're working outdoors and the sun shines it's one of life's pleasures to appreciate. I don't begrudge you having a decent life. What I dislike is your self- entitlement, your hipocricy and pathetic justifications to defend the indefensible.

Broch, the business is in trouble and your response is to saunter around and quietly quit? Here's a post from you:

"Angry Tate, why should I leave. I've had a good life out of Royal Mail. 2 sometimes 3 holidays a year, house bought and paid for, 2 kids through university,a half decent pension, a yacht in the harbour,change me car every 2/3 years, money in the bank,money to invest that'll keep me comfortable in 2-3 years when I retire."

So, RM have given you a good life Broch? I'd say they have given you an excellent life, so how come you're so bitter?

Also:

"But unlike some selfish folk, I want that for those coming up behind me, because I've only got it because those before me fought for it."

Ask yourself Mr Tate, what do you do that benefits others now and those that follow."

Noble sentiment Broch. How does you t*ssing it off and getting as much as you can whilst consciously doing as little as possible to help those coming up behind you? You're living off their backs!

Roland, Dave Ward recently had the realisation that he was beaten. In the blink of an eye he went from perpetual belligerence to caving in to an offer that was miles off what he had demanded. Why do you think that happened? I'm also curious to know what made you realise that you had been beaten?