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The major investors will all have a different averages. I think Kretinsky will have done the research to assess this before his bid.

Not much time left so the new bid has to be good enough to get large holders to align with kretensky. The next one on the deadline to carry the rest. I reckon it's about 688 million shares(72.5%) that he doesn't already own. If he increases his bid by £1 per share from 320p to 420p it would cost him £688 million. He know this is probably his only chance to buy GLS and RM. He made a lot of money last year. He understands the perfect opportunity has a context and he will see this as the moment.

Hurtsparrow as you say, 'if the article can be taken at face value'. I'm inclined to believe the essence is true, the Telegraph is very well connected and it wouldn't be wise to provoke their ire at such a delicate stage, rather give them the heads up that there have been discussions.

The fact that the board and Kretensky are having discussions, and that Kretensky has given fairly wide ranging assurances suggest that the door is open. Redwheel, who have around 5% of IDS equity said after the first offer that GLS was worth 350p on its own, and on that basis I think his final bid will be north of £4.2.

He has a war on his doorstep coming ever closer, and gas pipelines are very fragile. I think he would really like to have his money invested in a safer part of the world.

Appreciated hurtsparrow. This section of the article was particularly interesting:

"The board of Royal Mail has held meetings with shareholders in recent weeks as it prepares to mount a defence against the approach.

But in a sign the company is softening its position, Royal Mail executives are now understood to be discussing the potential undertakings that would be required from Mr Kretinsky if any future bid were to be accepted.

These are understood to include guarantees around jobs, as well as other politically sensitive issues such as the Royal Mail brand."

Hurtsparrow, not subscribed so only read the headline promise of no job losses and his intent to launch a fresh bid. He's tested the water with his first attempt, bid number 2 will be at a price judged to gain allies. Bid number 3 to clinch it?

Isle, 'It wasn't so long ago that Daniel said he had no intention of making a bid for IDS. Now, this makes him a liar for stating that.'

Kretinsky may have not have had the intent to make a bid for IDS when he made that statement. None of us know his intent, and none of us would be so rigid as to hold ourselves in perpetuity to something we said last year if our circumstances had changed significantly. Correct me if i'm wrong but didn't his companies generate £3 billion profit for him this year? I think it's reasonable to assume that what was true for him last year no longer holds, and I would find it difficult to call him a liar. More of a fluid businessman.

Money, Kretensky should be a lot closer to understanding how much the institutional holders are demanding. For the last year market value of IDS has been based on an sp of around 250p. A large part of the perceived value of IDS is based on potential and being at the starting point of a more stable economic period; an updated USO saving £x amount per year, CWU showing signs of working with management, inflation controlled, interest rates due to fall, an economy on the upswing, consumers spending more. Tangible assets are measurable, but future potential of the business is

where the wrangling re perceived value of IDS will be focused, and where the positions of buyer and seller will need to come together to make a deal.

Money, if that's kretinsky's best game of poker with the hand he's got I'll be both surprised and disappointed, unless his next bid is all in at £4.50+. Kretinsky has proven to be the real deal and made a lot of money dealing with some probably very unpleasant Russian oligarchs. He's also spent a lot of time and money to get to the position to possibly own a company he really,really wants. So far everything that has happened has been very predictable, a seemingly deliberately poor offer rejected, which I am sure kretinsky anticipated. The only thing that I don't understand is why he has let the clock run down for so long without another bid. It will all be revealed very shortly how he intends to play this out, the ball has been in his court for 16 days. Could he have planned for 2 more bids? I think there is that possibility and there are still 12 more days to the deadline, and yes, this is probably the only chance he will ever have to own GLS and a quite possibly resurgent RM.

Isle, Kretinsky really wants to own IDS. Everything that has happened thus far that is in the public realm is as he anticipated, he hasn't given up, just playing his own game.

LDB, I think if Kretinsky was to pull a stunt like that the Govt. would take a serious look at his behaviour and question whether he is a fit and proper person, and if he can be trusted to own a company listed as being important for our National security.

I'd love to know what Kretensky's been doing since his initial bid was rejected. The clocks running down and almost half of his allotted time has been used up. We know he will have done all due diligence before he made his offer. He's also extremely serious about owning IDS and has spent around £1 billion positioning himself and made his bid when:

IDS market valuation close to historical lows; GLS consistently profitable (£350 million p.a); R.M. becoming increasingly competitive; CWU far more compliant, finally realising strikes don't make the brutality of competition go away; R.M results will be good, market valuation of IDS will reflect this and will increase; U.K economic outlook improving , with interest rate cuts anticipated in the not too distant future.

Kretinsky knew all of these things at the outset of his offer, which he knew would be rejected. He also knew what his next offer would be and it was already financed when he made the first offer.

He will have been searching for allies amongst institutional investors, but this could be a game of brinksmanship that may go all the way to the wire.

Currently Kretensky owns 27.5% of 950million shares, which leaves approximately 690 million shares that he needs to finance the purchase of. His current bid of 320p will cost him 2.2 billion to purchase the outstanding 690 million shares he doesn't yet own. A new offer of 385p would increase the cost of his bid by 65p per share, which would be approx £450 million on top of the 2.2 billion of his initial offer for a total valuation of 2.65 billion for GLS and RM. This is still not a serious bid and will be rejected. I think his next bid has got to be above 400p before he gets any allies amongst the institutional investors, and higher still for a successful bid.

Mike, Kretinskys been building a stake here since at least early 2020, when the sp was totally bombed out sub £2. Difficult to divine whether or not he has always had the long term goal of taking over IDS, he has however continued to build his stake until he is now in the current position of being able to launch a bid at the time of his choice, i.e. cheap share price and positive alignment of IDS's particular position and that of the wider economy. This is precisely the time he should be making his move and he has been waiting for this moment. Kretensky knows £3.20 is way off the mark. He knew it would be rejected, the response has been registered, and seems to be somewhere around £4.50. Kretensky will be making another offer and knows he will never have he opportunity to own GLS and RM at a better time or price. He has until 15th May, he hasn't got himself into this position just to make a disparaging offer then throw his hand in, and I think if his next offer is not £4.20+ he may well have thrown the opportunity away.

Kretinskys updated offer should be out soon.

I read somewhere that the board were meeting this week to prepare their defence against Kretinskys bid. Redwheel and other investors are also taking the bid seriously. Even if the defence against Kretinsky is the Nations security, the main players haven't mentioned it thus far, so it is clearly not cut and dried that the act will be applied.

Money, in some ways a buyout and a fat cheque in a single payment would be nice, but I also believe that IDS is on the cusp of achieving its potential and delivering consistent dividends year on year, which, depending on your average share price (particularly long term holders) could easily be 10%+ p.a. The sp will follow and 320p achieved in the next couple of years. I also have a feeling that Seidenberg is a cut above, and capable of doing something special with RM. His plan for the USO was researched, simple, and compliant. I think £4.50 mark would do it for me, but nonetheless the future of IDS is beginning to look more interesting than it has for many rears.

IDS has got the best delivery structure in the country, especially after the investment in the new sorting/ distribution hubs.

The USO will be updated and restructured along the lines defined by Seidenberg because any other course would be suicidal, and the regulator are fully aware of this. Final results released May 22ndish(?) will be good; The timing of Kretenskis bid is no coincidence, and as the largest shareholder he know things we don't.

Macro economic data has turned a corner. Inflation is due another large drop next month when the reduction in energy costs feed in. The consumer is going to feel a lot wealthier, particularly with interest rate cuts looming in less than 4 months. There could not be a better time to buy IDS, especially at the currently absurdly low sp, as it limps towards a startling recovery on the back of an existential conflict with the union, after which even Dave Ward had an anvil on the toe moment and recognised that blinkered socialist ideology and dogma will kill the business.

I don't think there is any doubt that competitors will be looking at IDS. Kretensky has the edge because he only needs to fund the purchase of 72.5% of IDS. If he were to increase what he is willing to pay from 2.2 billion to 3 billion, the offer per share would be £4.36. Kretinsky knows IDS is a cash cow, and Seidenberg will certainly bring RMG to profit.

The potential for IDS at this point in time, the bottom of the economic curve, is absolutely huge. A renewed offer of circa £4.50 would be closer to the ballpark, and will have been considered by Kretensky.

Its late in the day, so I thought I'd just do a quick sum to calculate how much it would cost Kretinsky if he were to pay £3.20 for each of the outstanding shares:

Total number of shares= 950,000,000. He owns 27.5% already, so he has to fund the purchase of the remaining 72.5%.

950,000,000 x .725 = 688,750,000 shares he doesn't currently own.

688,750,000 x £3.20 = £2,204,000,000.

He's got £2.2 billion down the back of his sofa.

IDS rejected initial bid of 320 as opportunistic, a significant undervaluation, and ignoring future potential of the group.

Response from an 'inside source':

- "Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky is working on improving an offer for the owner of Britain's Royal Mail, a source with knowledge of the plans said on Wednesday, after his investment vehicle said it had made a non-binding bid this month which was rejected."

IDS's reasons for the rejection of the initial offer of 320p were comprehensive, and made it clear to Kretinsky he's well short of the mark. If the source is correct about another offer, and the strength of the boards rejection of the first offer is taken into account, Kretinsky knows he is going to have to increase the offer significantly to gain any traction with his bid.

Let the horse trading begin. Kretinsky knows if he really wants IDS, which he clearly does, he's going to have to up his price. I wonder how much more he's factored in?

Carrington, RNS the bid was 320p