Member Info for simx

Red, it was posted on Thursday 2nd Nov, and the poster had this to say: "The reason for todays' rise is, however, probably more to do with this reiterated BUY recommendation from Citigroup.".

On Thursday 2nd Nov sp rose 10p, and was also 261.8 noon, precisely the same price as that mentioned in the article. The odds of that happening are pretty huge which made me believe that this was a recent recommendation. As Derek pointed out though, the recommendation does refer to RM changing it's name to IDS last month, which would confirm this to be old news.

Red, was posted on ADFN board on Thursday 2nd Nov. The analysis references seasonal (hours) contracts which weren't in play in september 2022, so I believe it to have been released on 2nd Nov 2023.

Just found this on another board, believe it's dated 02 Nov 2023.

Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C)

Analysts have reiterated their buy recommendation for shares in Royal Mail, which officially changed its trading name and ticker to International Distributions Services PLC (LSE:IDS) last month.

Citigroup analysts have lowered their target price, where they believe the company’s share price would create ‘fair value’ for shareholders, to £3.25 per share.

The current listed share price for International Distributions Services PLC (LSE:IDS) is 261.8p per share, as of Thursday mid-afternoon.

Analysts said they believe that pay increases will be offset by improvements in productivity, operations and network optimisation.

They analysed cost savings from seasonable contracts, reduced sorting hours and sickness rates.

Citigroup analysts estimate that the potential disposal value of the company’s real estate is worth about £240 million, given the network optimisation at Parcelforce and Royal Mail depots.

“We believe that c.10% of pay rises between 2022 and 2025 amounting to £400m will be more than offset by the proposed productivity, operational improvements, and network optimization,” Citigroup analysts said in a research note on Thursday.

Red, Sid just to clarify, those figures were for the total trades in IDS at that point in time, not my personal position, looking back at my post it was ambiguous. Fell to a low of 242, no significant move in the main markets, no news, just major manipulation of the market.

3k sold, 70k bought, down 5p.

Red, all's well now. Seems to have been fixed shortly after I posted.

Anyone else unable to see trade data? Since 3.30 ish yesterday no new trades have been displayed, it's not just affecting IDS.

Moneyshark, the rally on this side of the pond petered out rapidly, and never even started in the US, though DOW and S&P could recoup some of their early losses before US markets close. Markets are being cautious and looking for more positive data to confirm inflation is being tackled. If that can be done in the US whilst economic activity remains robust we would have the soft landing that's being hoped for. As long as the data stays positive the bears will get more nervous. We've also got results due mid november, which I was anticipating to be really bad, though the complete radio silence from IDS makes me curious. I've also spoken to a couple of posties who have made comparisons with christmas, which I know is not to be regarded as gospel, but possibly results could be better than anticipated.

Key economic data released today in EU and US:

ECB keeps interest rates unchanged at 4%.

US economy firing on all cylinders, GDP Q3 forecast 4.2%, actual 4.9%. !!

US continuing jobless claims increase by 50k more than forecast

Initial jobless claims increase 210,000, marginally higher than forecast

Core personal consumption expenditure 2.4%, 0.1% below forecast

Looks good to me, very strong GDP growth combined with other data indicating a reduction in inflationary pressure. UK markets have reacted positively to the data, looking forward to seeing how US markets respond at 2.30.

Money, lets hope the sp of the trade you were planning to make moves in the opposite direction of what you wanted. could be a silver lining for you.

Moneyshark, I made a trade a couple of minutes after your post. Did a couple of dummy trades earlier in the day, didn't execute but an offer was made. Didn't notice any interruption in the trade data during the day. If you posted at the time of your trade the exchange was definitely up because I had been taking an interest in trades and sp for a while before I executed the trade. I'd say that you've been told rubbish. Oh, I was also watching the main indices and there were no interruptions there either.

Newdealz, you've made some great calls last couple of days, nice one.

Newdealz, I haven't reached your level of analysis. I use google finance for real time charts, lse ticker to see 15 min delayed trades, and find they work well together to get a sense of the current sentiment. Also fxstreet for live macro news. All are free.

I thought today could be a good day to get back in again if the sp dropped further. Spent a long time considering when to get in and saw the trade on the ticker. Trade price of 270 caught my attention, sp went sideways, us data at 1.30 was dull (great news), saw the DOW and S&P open in neutral territory got back in at 254.8. We're of the same opinion Newdealz, thanks for a more scientific description to back up the conclusion I came to. We'll find out soonish.

The answer is a big order was filled at 270.

Houndog, I agree with your conclusion that EVRI are taking market share. Royal mail parcel volumes in Q1 this year were down 9% compared to the previous year. EVRI are clearly confident that they will retain these new customers which is worrying for RMG as the aim to return to profitability 2023/24 relies heavily on reclaiming customers lost during the recent industrial dispute.

@Moneyshark, Inflation is declining, mainly due to the fall in energy costs. Core cpi declined from 7.1% in May to 6.9% in June, that's just 0.2% in a month. It is moving glacially slowly in the right direction, but still a long way to go to the 2% target.

ND, buy order just got filled. 2X 1.2 million buys. Looks to me as if sp will continue to decline. Govt. is intent on stifling the economy with base rate increases, peak at 6%? who knows, but disposable income is being squeezed consumer demand will contract.

Money, I agree about liberium. However, the best source for guidance is the horses mouth, IDS's own report. Since the report monetary policy has been tightened by another .5%, further reducing discretionary spending. Q1 report next week will give a clearer picture but it is not going to be good.

This from IDS annual report:

"The current financial year, 2023-24 is expected to be another

challenging one. In the first half, a combination of the 6% pay

increase in April 2023 and the currently weaker revenue trajectory

are expected to combine to mean the adjusted operating loss in H1

is expected to be higher year on year"

Fool have consistently lived up to their name. Proactive investors outlook is closer to IDS's own guidance.