Member Info for simx

That was announced around 10.30 am this morning, although I'm sure that some people will have found out sooner. Release time of this news fits the timing of the price fall, but not sure it would warrant its scale. The price is certainly being driven down today despite buys %50 > sells. I wonder if there's an agenda here? See my other post about a huge buy and its immediate negative increase on the share price.

350,000 share deal, 2 minutes later share price falls 2.5p, somehow this feels wrong!

brave man. lets hope you're right

Here's an article assessing RMG's results. Thought provoking with an emphasis on the positives:
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202205/royal-mail-efficiency-offsets-volume-declines?utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=E00RN&utm_content=Share%20research&theSource=E00RN&Override=1&utm_campaign=E00RN_Share%20research_update_Holders_New&utm_source=AdobeCampaign&utm_medium=email&theSource=E00RN&e_cti=12170074&e_ct=T&Override=1&deliveryName=DM22291

Your lordship, try this:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/april2022
These are the latest retail sales(April) from which I took the figures I used, your link was for March data.
Aprils figures are more encouraging and in terms of value as a percentage of total retail sales: online increased from 26%(March) to 27%(April). When the value of online sales in March and April are compared, Aprils online sales value was up 6.2% on March.
Online sales have been unwinding, but a consequence of Covid is that consumers shopping habits permanently changed. Perhaps the March and April statistics are giving a sense of the % value at which online vs total retail sales will rebase post-covid.
Also if you have any other useful links would be good if you could post them instead of using the word 'anecdotedly'. There have been many posters and many anecdotes regarding RM in the past which have been untruths and a lot of people are wary of such comments. Thanks for the links though, real information always gratefully received.

Anecdotes are dubious and not reliable information.
April's retail sales grew by 1.4% compared to March. Stripping out the contribution of food stores, non-store(online) contribution to this growth was 0.5% versus a decline of -0.2% for non-food stores, (ONS data). Online contributed more than bricks and mortar monthly growth.

Angersharkz, these figures are released monthly around the 20th of each month. Will be interesting to see how the trend in online retail sales will go. This data shows a decline in online volumes post covid. We are now in another economic crisis. Plenty of jobs but very high inflation. Base rates are crawling up, but so far there have been minimal increases compared to historical rates when inflation has been high and base rates were the blunt tool used to control inflation. Central bank must be very nervous about what would happen to mortgage rates and defaults on mortgages even at a level of 3 or 4%. Could cause the property market to collapse alongside huge numbers of repossessions. Politically it could be an election loser. The big question is how will the consumer choose to shop during the current extraordinary economic conditions. People became adept at online shopping during the pandemic and it may be that during hard times the consumer will continue to go online searching for better value. There is a possibility that high inflation could actually help royal mail parcel volumes.
I'm not making any predictions, but the next few months of data may give an indication of how the consumer is navigating their way through this crisis.

Useful link showing retail sales volumes and comparatives for April 2022. Contains a section dedicated to online retail trends.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/april2022
Non-store retailing sales volumes, which are predominantly sales from online-only retailers, rose by 3.7% in April 2022 led by stronger clothing sales.
The proportion of retail sales online rose to 27.0% in April 2022 from 25.9% in March and remains substantially higher than the 19.9% in February 2020 before the coronavirus pandemic.

£303M for Royal mail PLUS 370-410m Euros for GLS are the 2022-23 operating profit forecast's.

Half-year report 18th Nov,2021, covering 26 weeks ending September 2021 has this to say about international parcels, which amount to approx. 10% of revenues:
'Royal Mail International (excluding Parcelforce Worldwide) has seen significant headwinds with volumes down 43%, driven by largely external factors outlined previously including reduced air freight capacity, increased conveyance costs and the transition to a new trade deal with the European Union.'

These are the figures for parcel volumes and revenues for the period covered:
2021 2020
80 134 Volume(million units)
397 470 Revenue(£m)

Of these 3 headwinds 2 of them, 'reduced air freight capacity' and 'the transition to a new trade deal with the European Union' should by now have been significantly mitigated since the report was released.
Parcel volumes declined 43% , revenue has declined only 15%. This implies significantly higher package prices and when combined with reducing headwinds for this part of the business RM should be returning to more normal international parcel volumes with a price increase per package of around £1.50!

Inspired me to listen to breadfan for the time in years oligarch. That riff still hits the spot.

Oh yes, I made an error, and it was enthusiasm. However the information i just posted is not a spur of the moment bout of enthusiasm. The first part are real numbers, the second part of my post is s projection regarding future parcel volumes.
Thanks for going through my 4 posts, not sure why you would do that when I have cited the sources of my information.

Just looked up uk parcel volumes on statista.com and found these numbers, which are millions of parcels:
2019-2020 2020-2021
Domestic 2319 3562
International Inbound 308 408
International Outbound 193 202

I was trying to find something more contemporary than this but these were the only concrete numbers I could find. However:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/united-kingdom-domestic-courier-express-081300789.html
Contains a report for projected volumes up to 2025 which is very positive and confirms to me that investments made by RMG will be rewarded well into the future and that the current share price is a bargain!

In the last 5 days RMG have had these broker ratings:
Deutsche 275
Berenberg 650
Barclays 640

RMG January 25th Q3 trading update Forecasts:
Royal mail £430 million adjusted operating profit
GLS 400 million euros

I think the teaboy must have done Deutsche's analysis. RMG are a screaming buy !!!

Letter revenue, for 9 months to december 2021 was £2.8 billion compared to £2.566 billion in 2020 over the same period.

Royal mail are increasing the price of 1st class stamps by 10p to 95p, and second class stamps by 2p to 68p. If letter volumes are sustained this will help cushion the impact of labour and fuel costs. The increase of stamp prices takes effect on 4th april 2022.

Before anyone decides to jump off a tall building, this site may have the wrong closing price. This trade:
24-Jan-22 17:01:05 460.00 1,997,000 Unknown* 434.30 434.40 9m appears to be kosher, and at 460, a buy. Also another large late trade.
BBC price chart makes much happier reading, with an almost vertical leap to have the closing price at 4.60, to end the day nearly where we started. Someone with deep pockets sees this share as having value, and looks like the bottom has been well and truly found with an emphatic bounce!