As a past investor here I looked at the rns today and saw that the war as expected is having a toll but also that a lot of their staff are in the army. They cannot simply increase production like some wish even if trade routes re-opened and they have a lot of fixed costs. I think this will do fantastic if the war ended but at present it is going to drip downwards in my view until the war stops as they are losing staff/money and although a great product they have fixed overheads. It is sad and hope the company does great again in the near future but can see a difficult route to profitability again until the war ends. GLASH
On fuel - the ivory coast has promised 50 million litres per month (the country uses 60-70m per month) and a first tanker arrived tuesday - https://weafrica24.com/2024/01/11/fuel-crisis-in-guinea-the-government-ask/
this should help and most expect the fuel shortages to be alleviated by mid Jan
https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2024/01/guinea-fuel-disruptions-likely-nationwide-through-at-least-mid-january-update-3
All of us don't know the future and place our bets on the side we believe will come out best. If the shorters were always right then we would all be rich - just follow the shorters!! However if the shorters are right in this case the SP has still doubled from its lows - how can they have been wrong which some would believe you never happens! Irrespective of anything else if they exited at 14p and shorted again at over 40p as this approach would have made the most money so where is their expertise? the shorts are trying to mitigate their losses that's all and like us all make as much money/lose as little as possible. There is no magic wand on the future for either side and 10% shorters does not make them right - why have other companies not bought in now then? Think about all angles.
Yes - but did he have over $100m invested - this is a producing gold mine(s) where getting extra funding was not an issue. Look at PFC. This is not a non-producer or dream but is about the 2nd mine being productive - not that it won't but to what level and CIG would have been privy to all the reports to make their loans etc in the first place. Hence I feel once this mining level is confirmed in the next month or two the true value will appear which as stated should be the min of the offer price or why else would CIG commit so much! Could it be nearer 20p - in my view likely as again my would CIG put more money in - because they saw it as an opportunity
Hi Frogkid - the positivity is that their major lender who will have access to ALL of the information has invested around $25m into the organization on top of most of the debt already invested. If they had major concerns this would not be an option to them and they even paid a premium for this privilege over the SP as it is today by circa 10%. If I could foretell the SP for next month I would be very rich as I could short or buy depending on this and I have no crystal ball but their investment is a huge positive sign that the new bottom of the SP is at least the price they paid of just over 11p.
Think it may be a positive day today but agree that the mining update/fuel issues etc. need to be resolved and the mining figures realized as promised! The biggest issue in all investments is trust and unfortunately the BoD have very limited trust from PIs but do seem to have the full trust of the major shareholders such as CIG and even their own board are investing. Hence on balance even though I don't trust much that comes from DB's mouth the people who matter (not us) seem convinced that this will come good. Not ideal but gives me some surety although I have averaged down to virtually the SP price so have limited risk.
Must be why E. Nutter, other board members and CIG who will know the company and their expectations better than any one person here are so happy to spend near $30m on Hummingbird resources. It could all be a big bluff by Betts so that no-one complains that he sold the company off cheap and that the mine is actually producing much better than anticipated and as such they are getting a steal! Anyway I see it as a positive, they have committed backers who are putting their money where their mouth is and happy to take the risk at over the current sp. That is a real positive as they know the figures and have seen the reports.
Hi Warthog4 - your comment has not aged well!! It seems they must be agreeing with me now - over 29p to buy!
Seems reality of the situation has set in and they are deciding that the risks are too great. I believe they just wanted a lower exit price - simple risk/reward on their behalf and to reduce their losses. Not rocket science and they work exactly the same as all of us - try to max their profits and reduce their losses.
Agree PFCVetran - I am not overly concerned about the SP and recently added again at 27.5. I see this as an opportunity as the backlog and the RNS as you state has given me great confidence in this share. A company that is employing and still hiring so many staff all over the world and keeps winning contracts is a great place to be. They also choose to pay a guarantee of $100m and also have not stated any major or indeed any cost-cutting (usually the first thing to happen when trying to save money/preserve cash). It is obvious the senior management do not have major issues with the position and others are fear-mongering and as stated already the company keep adding new positions which is NOT the actions of any firm in trouble. DYOR but the new positions, new contracts and the recent RNS are all I needed to be confident.
Don't know how nay one could be negative on this? They initially wanted $30m and it was obvious that the offer to the 'other' shareholders were symbolic and we all agree who would buy at a premium? Indeed I am amazed anyone took up this offer at all. The main aspect of the fund raise is that CIG and others including board members are fully committed, are putting near $30m into the company which takes the risks of not getting to commercial production down to virtually zero. This is a huge derisk and huge positive - there is no other way to spin this and actually makes us all more secure and basically puts a new floor on the share price.
Well pretty good news on the open offer with the near $30m raised including board buying. Should keep the lights on until we hit commercial production and then re-rate. Can see this rising today as a lot of the risk has now subsided.
For a company that is not a going concern in the view of some they sure do have a lot of new jobs just published :
https://petrofac.referrals.selectminds.com/latest-jobs
122 new jobs advertised just since Christmas
Just topped up again at 27.5p - can't see any outcome in my view except a good return over time (not a trader) and will not sell until at least tripled! Agree they have their short-term concerns but overall even if a low ball offer comes in it will be at a much higher price than this!! DYOR and make your own decisions :)
Harbour energy was similar but that did have a substantial sale of assets and multi bagged from its lows (more than a twenty bagger) so it is possible but not that likely and that was at the point of getting wound up by a somewhat similar BoD
Rns also gave a production update
Operations
The Company has stopped natural gas and NGL purchases. Oil production for the 4th
quarter, up to December 28, 2023 averaged 1,083 bbl/d (gross).
Ondon, United Kingdom; Calgary, Canada: December 29, 2023 – Canadian Overseas
Petroleum Limited (“COPL” or the “Company”) (XOP: CSE) & (COPL: LSE), an
international oil and gas exploration, production and development company with
production and development operations focused in Converse and Natrona Counties,
Wyoming, USA, announces (the “Announcement”) (i) US$2.5 million of committed
common share financing and certain amendments to the outstanding Bonds (as
defined below) of the Company, as described herein (collectively, the “Financing”) (ii)
the execution of a Forbearance Agreement with its senior lender and (iii) the
appointment of a Chief Restructuring Officer.
Other terms of the Financing include:
Completion of the Financing is expected by the January 15, 2024 and is
intended to be used for working capital purposes.
1,312,232,633 common shares (the “New Shares”) are to be purchased at a
price (the “Subscription Price”) of GBP 0.0015 by Anavio Capital Partners LLP
or an entity or entities associated by it (the “Purchaser”).
The Company will grant the Purchaser warrants equal to at least 100% of the
number of New Shares, with each warrant entitling the holder to purchase a
Common Share at the Subscription Price, expiring 26 August 2028.
The conversion price of the Bonds will be amended to the Subscription Price
per conversion share. The maturity date of the 2027 Bonds (as defined herein)
will be extended to 26 January 2028, and the maturity date of the 2028 Bonds
(as defined herein) will be extended to 26 January 2029.
The commencement date for any exercise by the Company of its parity call
option under each of the Bonds will be extended to 1 January 2025.
The exercise price of the existing warrants will be amended to the Subscription
Price, and the expiration date will be extended to 26 August 2028.
The Company will appoint one additional independent non-executive director
to be nominated by the Purchaser by no later than 31 March 2024.
Putting my thinking cap on - CIG must know when roughly we will hit commercial production and it must be relatively soon for them to agree to the sp buying price. Think an rns may come soon or just after the placement day so that CIG get a bargain and we all don’t take up the offer. We shall see