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Inflation is not an issue - indeed steel and coal are priced in dollars and most costs are in you roubles (which is getting weaker)- the overall impact is that costs are down massively due to foreign exchange and this will negate the inflation. Evraz for the last 5 years before suspension made more than $1bn a year which it paid out in dividends and paid debt down. It should be debt free by now imo

Only 3 days to go until we get a large boost in the sp (in my view) - what are others views on this? Much later than normal but worth the wait?

Hi All - I think the issue many have on this board is that people are picking and choosing specific facts to suit their narrative!

I agree that DB as CEO of HUM was quite loose with his language and always painted a rosy picture but actually the yearly forecasts in general were in the ballpark of expectations - always a slightly higher AISC and lower production but in the general ballpark. Some derampers on here are specifically looking at one Q to make their points (Q2 this year) and ignoring previous Qs when there is not an issue and the rampers are not taking on board there is an issue with the ramping up at Kour and that there may also be an issue with Yan now. The truth is until Q3 comes out we are all guessing and irrespective of Q3 (which due to the wet season may not be great) it is actually Q4 which is make or break for the company as there will be no excuses and this will determine the whole viability of Hum as a company. I am an investor and hold a significant amount (which I am not adding to) at an average of over 10p. I know that DB was too rosy glassed but over the years he was not massively out on his forecasts but his constant missing of targets made it hard to believe a word that came out of his mouth. Based on his previous record of always over-forecasting and underdelivering I am confident that 200,000 at $1200 AISC (roughly) across both mines is likely the high end of expectations. Basing it on his usual miss I would anticipate around 160,000 at $1400-$1600 AISC is more likely, and which would be good enough to re-rate Hum as a company. The only major question I have now is - is the expected gold actually in the Kour mine? If yes, then all good and Q3/Q4 will determine this which is why they are key and if not as stated previously we will all know by Q4 as there are no excuses. The rest of the chat between all of the rampers and derampers at present is just a waste of time and Q3/Q4 will put real data into the equation.

Trump likely to win election so 'drill, drill, drill' will significantly increase the USA production figures and coupled with no hit on the fuel/nuclear facilites of Iran I see fuel being under pressure for the next few months/years unless demand picks up again.

Hi Bushy - if you look at Coris bank history - they are a bank that is highly trusted and heavily involved in the mining industry. I would have more trust in them than the BOD at HUM as they have more skin in the game and would not be giving out large loans without having completed lots of due diligence. This is one of the reasons I am still confident that the ship will turn for HUM and that the path forward is still viable. Coris are confident they will get their money back and that the risk to them on losing their investment must be small.

I think there will be a new world order irrespective of the outcome of the Russia/ukraine war (which I think is now largely irrelevant). The growth of the BRICS, new payment system and partners that can be trusted not to seize assets is the future for most. The reliance on the dollar will diminish but by the freezing of Russian assets it shows that the western world cannot be trusted and their abuse of the sanctions and banking system will not have gone unnoticed.

POG through the $2750 barrier now!! Getting less risky this share as Gold rises - still need to get the gold out the ground but at these prices even inefficient HUM should be making decent money. Every time it rises it means the Q4 figures will get better as the AISC will be lower due to the dry season and higher production of gold - even 35000 ozs for both mines at an AISC of $1800 and average price of gold sold (including hedges) of around $2600 will produce around $25m fcf to pay off debt. Even DB can't mess this up now even if the mine produces under expectations!

I have an average now of 67p and have a largish holding and are very confident this will come good. War will last another year max and as long as FXPO survives then this should rerate. Just hope the ware ends sooner as it is a total waste of life and was preventable.

Hi TornadoTony - totally agree that Dugbe is a lot of investment - and that it is not as easy as people imagine or as desirable. However, a bit like an old classic car - it has some value irrespective and if major investment is inputted it can be worth much more. Suppose a bit like HUM as well!! The value of HUM once tax credits, getting the expected gold out of the ground and increasing the LoM at both mines I estimate to be worth just over 30p for the SP (in an ideal world) but agree with many on the board that HUM at present is far from an ideal position but also that this could change quickly.

Hi TornadoTony - why don't you run your simple maths model again with POG at $2730 (less than current price) and include value of Dugbe (say $35m to Hum). The figure for SP will be over 20p. Also HUM must have tax credits for the build of Kour which should also be factored in.

Actually TornadoTony - you are making a lot of assumptions with your statement - no extension of LOM at either Yan or Kour (which have both been stated is possible and viable). You have also not included any value for Dugbe in your figures or indeed the simple fact that POG is well over $2400 as I type and predicted to be over $3000.

Even if Q3 is not great and we only produce 25000 ozs I would still not be worried at say an aisc of $2000- this would be termed a ‘disaster’ but with gold at near $2750 we would still pay off some debt!! Say $2400 average gold price for Q3 but increasing every quarter as gold keeps rising there is the expectation of average gold sale price of $2500 in Q4 which if we even produce 35000 ozs at $1800 aisc is still a healthy profit. It is a matter of timing and every quarter the price of gold stays high the less risk there is

What would be great is if someone could tell me what the rationale is for getting sanctioned by the US and others as it would seem to be not consistent and that is my point.

An individual on here argued that evraz was sanctioned due to Russia invading Ukraine in 2022 and hence it is justified. This glosses over the issue that many countries are sanctioned and many have not invaded anyone. Indeed Russia was sanctioned before 2022 but evraz wasn’t and the rationale for sanctioning evraz is total bs. Indeed 80% of the world have not sanctioned Russia (or indeed anyone) and it is only the elite few who decide who and what for.

That is my point - other countries including the UK and USA have done worse than others and have not been sanctioned and yet in a democracy we believe it is fine to be exclusive and treat others different and dictate/ bully others by sanctions and can’t see the hypocrisy of our actions

Quite simple - they invaded Lebanon which was the rationale given for Russia being sanctioned.

You could argue anything if you only look at one side as there are always arguments for both sides. But attacking UN by Israel and other acts much worse than others that are sanctioned. Ask yourself why Bosnian people and companies have been sanctioned in the last year by uk and USA - who did they invade/ attack

Hi Jotom- deflection is not giving a sound counter argument and name calling - very simple to do for the uneducated. Pointing out that similar actions are not taken by our government or other governments for similar actions highlights the hypocrisy of our government who indeed should have been sanctioned themselves alongside the USA for the Iraq war. Where is the idea of democracy and consistency against others who do the same crimes?? Double standards should never be accepted and consider has the right to be judge/jury as they who cast the first stone……..

And there are numerous Israeli owned companies on the ftse - when are their sanctions beginning???

Hi Jotom - so when is Zim the shipping company from Israel getting sanctioned? Different rules for Israeli companies?? And Israel?

Troajan

It is simple to get news story that tells any story you want - the media manipulates the news to suit their agenda. See below:

https://english.news.cn/20220902/735703a45cfd458791179d4c0a80e727/c.html

All nations use the media for their own ends.

The USA did not commit genocide in Veitnam or Iraq??? The point I am making is that all powerful countries have throughout history wrote history and did deeds that are genocide. Hitler, Putin are in a list alongside other western leaders such as Nixon and Blair but we believe what the news tells us - no side is Snow White

And UK is a satellite state of the USA. Both Russia and USA cause most wars - they look after their own interests first and foremost and other countries pay the price. They are no better than each other - ask the former yugoslavians, Iraqis, Koreans, Syrians, Afghanistanis or Georgians- so much death for their interests and it is not for ‘democracy’ or communism.

The hedging was specifically mentioned in the last presentation - it is much smaller and not as bad as others have stated, at start of October they stated it is 34,000 ozs that are hedged at $2230 per oz and the hedge lasts until April 2025. This is less than 6000 ozs oer month that is hedged and the re-lining was also mentioned in the latest presentation and took around a week. They also stated that they are still within guidance for the year. Most of these answers did not come from DB to be specific as well.