Member Info for Simplyme

Hi Quady - can you explain to me about how the earth has had numerous ice-ages (without man even being around) and the earth heated up and the ice melted without man having made any impact? Also can you explain to me how the ice kept coming back (again even before man was around) and this during a period when the earth was also covered in much more trees? People forget that 'man-made' is only for the period covered by when data has been getting collected which in the grand scheme of thins is less than a split second of the existence of the earth - but of course must be correct and paid attention to!!

Most people run their houses nowadays on that basis - I will buy that item now as I know I have my wages come at end of month or indeed upgrade the car as I know I am getting promotion in a few months. All HUM are doing is pushing their debt out due to the increased gold ozs they will soon be obtaining so that they are in a better position to pay the bills when they get their 'pay-rise'. It is modern society and people constantly do it - as long as they produce the gold in the future it should not be a huge issue.

Your point TEO1? where does this $3m really matter in the grand scheme of things?? I have seen major companies make mistakes in their RNS's and it is not that material whatever the figure should be? If it was $185,000 instead of $3.4m would it matter that much? What really matters is the upcoming figures from KOUR, YAN and the AISC for the next quarter as well as the future guidance especially for KOUR based on the mine reaching commercial production. If these figures are good then we are all aware that the debt will quickly get paid down and if not good then there is a problem. Let's not overcomplicate things. Since the last RNS period covered there has been 7 weeks of mining so any range from 12-20000 ozs could have been produced over this period and anything from 25000 - 40000 ozs for the quarter and you are worrying about 1500ozs? It is the range that is the worry!! I am more focused on the bigger picture and these figures are actually much more important!

6 months ago - this is why people put so little value in your view goldinvestor as you do not move with the times (or at least your views don't get updated). 6 months ago POG was under $2000 and commercial production had not been hit and virtually no gold was being produced, I am sure that interest rates may have been different, price of oil etc. and there was a real risk of inflation/recession . I am sure even you know there is a correlation between POG and interest rates and the wider macros!! HUM is now able to be invested on a more considered approach now with more accurate information and future - we know interest rates are likely to come down; POG likely to stay at these prices or rise and also that KOUR is producing at least 15000ozs a quarter and likely to be higher. Yes the debt is roughly the same as 6 months ago but the future is much brighter - you would need to be an idiot not to see that! Not saying it does not have risks but what doesn't? You and others like David are stuck in the past and with your views

You also have to consider the tax credits they will have for building the mine at Kour which will probably mean limited tax for the first few years for this mine and that every time you pay off debt the sp will rise - so a better picture once this is considered. Also if resources are upgraded and LoM increased then again sp should rise. Still a few triggers for higher sp (including the obvious POG as well!)

Agree tornado - no placing and debt repayment for next 3 years is the plan (and was the plan previously). This is what I expected - just pushed the debt out further but will be able to pay this all off within 3 years (depending on price of gold obviously but as long as it stays over $2300 I would not be concerned). This is a good outcome for all as if the mines perform to a decent level (not even the level DB predicts), it will be relatively easy to pay off the debt especially when the hedge ends. This loan gives more breathing space and allows Hum to get to commercial production.

Agree - excellent news - production ramping up, the monsoon season is now on the downward slope (for those who don't know July, Aug and Sept are the worst months and from mid Aug it starts to ease off). Even worse case now we should make enough in Q3 and Q4 to make the debt repayments if POG stays high. Kour will more than meet the hedges required for the next 2 quarters and then in 2025 the golden period of huge profitability will arrive and the payment down of debt. Coris having seen the books (and probably getting weekly production updates from Kour) are happy to stump up $25m at only 12% - I repeat ONLY 12% which is a standard rate not even high interest in current scenario. All looking good and the faith by Coris bank demonstrates this as they own a huge chunk and are happy to put their hands in their pocket at standard rates. As long as POG stays high we have no worries.

Hi Gold investor - why are you always looking for the negatives and not being factually correct?

You state that POG is zero beneficial at moment which is not true - by POG being over $2150 per oz we get the full top end hedge collar and get paid $2150 per oz (only $2075 last quarter average) and also any quantities over the hedge produced are at spot price. You can even state it the other way on mine production if you wish - Kour itself should produce more than what we have hedged per quarter and hence Yan will be getting near $2500 (current price) per oz!! How is this statement not correct? Also you stated we would get no finance deal and now we have (as I stated) which with the high POG means we are hugely derisked as a company! There is no other way to look at this.

Gold investor - I do agree with some of the things you state and would agree much more if POG was under $2000. The high POG has given Hum a lifeline as we are getting $2150 approx for our hedged gold and currently over $2400 an oz (know this over $2500 at present) for the rest. This makes a huge difference to profitability and why Hum will get finance. Agree they are in a big hole but if they produce even bottom guidance at a higher aisc than predicted they will be fine if the number of ozs from Kour keeps increasing. Even Yan should break even as a minimum at these prices and as long as POG stays high the future is rosy. I agree if POG was not at historic highs we would likely be diluted or go bankrupt but at present we should make a profit this year and next year pay a huge amount of debt off (if gold stays high) - it is that simple in my view

Anyway we will all find out in the next few weeks - an RNS ensuring our finance shored up as a starter and then the Q3 report in October.

For clarity - I am invested at a little of just over 10p average - I do believe the next 2 Qs are the most critical for HUM and if they get through this period that it will be great value even at 10p. With gold currently around $2450 it mitigates the risk to some degree but to be clear this is still a riskier investment and that for the next few quarters HUM cannot really afford a massive setback. I am a realist of the risks and the level of debt (largely due to building KOUR) but can also see if Q3 figures especially for KOUR are good ( anything over 16000 ozs just for Kour) and same or slightly higher for YAN will do that this company could have a serious rerate. However DYOR and there may still be bumps in the road

Hi teo1 - I wish you did read and research as you would find out that only part of the gold being mined is hedged and only for the next couple of quarters . To simplify for you (I think simple may be best for you), basically Yanfolila is hedged at around max $2100 per oz until end of year (which at current price will be for every oz) and Kouroussa should be at full spot price of gold. I would expect both mines to produce roughly the same this Q3, so we should get around $2250 average for our gold in Q3 but at a lower AISC for BOTH mines in comparison to Q2. Hence the more KOU produces the better as we get full value for this gold and make the most profit. If you also read and look at the historic AISC for YAN you will see for the full years what the AISC is: 2019 $986; 2020 $1147; 2021 $1536; 2022 $1782 and 2023 $1331 - none of these figures are above $2100 for the price for the year which demonstrates the last quarter (Q2) is not representative of the AISC and will reduce over the year. Hence next quarter the more gold from KOUR the higher our average price of gold and again if you bothered to read the annual reports and RNS's you would see they always highlighted most gold in H2 from BOTH mines - simple rule on mining is more gold produced; the lower the AISC and why the last quarter with so little gold poured that the AISC was so high. We can all pick and choose figures but lets keep it factual and not choose figures to suit. If YAN has a typical or even bad year it will still be profitable and KOUR should be the one that starts to be a real 'goldmine'!!

We all agree debt is high and that without the high POG, HUM would indeed be in dire straits. Luckily the gold price is over $2400 and as such this has given the company some flexibility and crucially makes it profitable (I would not like to imagine the state of the company based on Q2 results with POG at $1900!!). However with POG at historic high levels it gives the leeway to the company and its backers to move the debt out as it will be a win-win for all once the gold starts to come out of the gold in greater quantities (which even sustaining current rates from KOU of 1200 ozs per week average, if POG is $2400 and AISC of $1400 as stated produces $60m per year !) Debt is only an issue if there is high risk that it is not going to be paid back and as it can easily be shown by current prices this is not a real consideration unless POG goes much lower. Hence DavidBrent you can talk all you want about the debt etc. but it is not a factor in the current conditions so I do not see why you are constantly scare-mongering about a situation that is under control simply due to the high POG. If the POG goes under $2300 I would start to get concerned but until then the risks are minimised. If my bank knew I had just been given a huge pay-rise and could meet my repayments they would reschedule my debt and this is no different. If not, even then other lenders would step in albeit at a higher rate but all still manageable (solely because the high POG in HUMs case). Feel free to keep posting but please do put it in the current context.

Lets look at figures - $150m in debt maybe more - Yan is loss making etc. No future etc. Cost of commissioning and ramp up at Kou is around $150m all in - so we are roughly even. Yan mine has also been built over that period (it was not free to build) and we have also obtained Dugbe and have had exploration costs - so net result overall is that HUM as a company are up. Hum has 2 producing mines and gold is over $2450 as I type. The above statements are all what we agree on or are facts. Yan is loss-making some say but only at an AISC of more than $2400 which even in recent times has not been the norm for the year although exceptions have happened the odd quarter! It would except last quarter have made money (the hedging has cost us additional money at this point in time but this will run out in another 40,000 ozs). Even at $1800 AISC at Yan which is higher than the normal it will make money. So Yan is not loss-making but not making as much as normal, worst case scenario for H2 is another 30- 35000 ozs at $300 profit gives around $10m (gold at $2100 hedge and $1800 AISC). Kour last 4 weeks of June produced 800 ozs gold average per week, the 4 weeks of July at 1200ozs per week (all from presentation) and it is a positive trend but lets stay negative with our future forecasts as it some would say the most likely scenario - so 1400 ozs weekly average in August and 1600ozs in August and 1800 ozs in September and this is the best it ever gets to and stays at this rate (staying negative). Lets also say $1500 AISC average for the year for Kour and for 2025 an AISC for Kour of $1300 (both high). So based on these negative figures, Yan will make $10m the rest of this year and Kour will produce 16800 ozs in Q3 at $1000 profit an oz ($16.8m) and 21600 ozs at $1000 profit an oz ($21.6m) - all figures based on $2400 average gold price for H2 and $1400 AISC. HUM as a group makes in H2 $48m profit to pay off debt and in 2025 Yan at 70000 ozs at $1800 AISC and Kour at 90000ozs at $1300 AISC (lower production and high AISC for both) with gold at $2400 average makes $141m profit and we should then be roughly debt-free. This all relies on high price of gold and agree it is a risk if price of gold falls (but with interest rates dropping and likely to drop more this scenario is unlikely). Hence as long as gold stays high this should be fine although this is without any major mis-haps. The usual caveat that gold price can go up or down from this but in the current macro conditions is more likely to go up. DYOR but this year is the most critical hence the SP

Hi All, the debt of HUM is basically the cost of the new mine to commission and get up to speed - this will be paid back in less than 2 years and this is just the start of the journey. If a company was set up today with just Kour mine ready to produce at commercial rate (no Dugbe or Yan) and had $150m debt but just about to hit the high grade with gold at over $2400 and an expected AISC of $1000 with 100,000ozs being produced for 6 years min. we would all be rushing to invest if the SP was just over 6p. That mine alone would be worth at least 25p SP and if the LOM increases at Kour and Dugbe is added on top then the value in sp would be much higher. It is not rocket science. As stated the next few months will clarify the position but I see little reason why funding will not be forthcoming as the above is the situation we are in and as long as gold stays high there are limited risks in refinancing - hence short -term suits all parties.

This update is at the lower end of everyones expectations - this is not great and the usual jam tomorrow. The only positive aspects are that KOU is producing higher ozs and should continue to do so getting 30000 oz for rest of year should be achieved (I am going low on purpose) and also going by lowest guidance for Yan we should produce 35000 oz there. I will raise the AISC average to $1600 (know Kou is guided lower) but if gold stays at $2300 for rest of year we should make 65000 ozs and make around $45m - not perfect but 2025 would be the yea that makes the difference. If DB can delay the debt payments as stated and we get more consistency at BOTH mines then this should be fine but if there is another disaster or the price of gold drops we have major risks.

Actually I believe they do not even need to deliver what they promised for this to rerate. Due to price of gold this has given the company massive leeway for success so even 1500 ozs per week from Kou will be enough instead of the promised over 2000ozs per week. So even a half decent update will be good enough and allow HUM to pay down debt fast. So to reiterate, considering that we were producing 800ozs a week before we even hit the high grade ore then hitting 1500ozs per week now from Kou; Yan just being on track and an AISC of less than $1700 average for both mines will be great in my view. So say 80k from Yan; 50k from Kou at an AISC of $1700 with average gold price for the year of $2300 we still make $78m. Next year say 80k from Yan and 100k from Kou at AISC of average $1400 and average gold price of $2300 gives $162m. Next year will be transformational and as long as we get through this year and start producing the ozs on a consistent basis then we will have no debt and have 'hit gold' with this investment.

Or simply that they were (as expected) keeping a close eye on the trend of gold production at Kouroussa and following this trend, expect to be able to announce the reaching of commercial production alongside the Q2 update and wish to release all this news together. So rather than have a RNS then another one a few days later do them together. Makes perfect sense to me.

The hedge is at $2350 per oz so we are still getting that price now for our gold and the higher price for the ounces produced over our hedging quota. No matter what way you do the figures, on $1500 aisc for Yanfolia and producing 80000 oz just from this mine at $2350 average price for the year would produce a healthy profit to pay down debt and all the ounces from Kouroussa to be added on top if at say an aisc of $1800 for 60000 ozs with a price of $2350 average for year then this should be enough to pay off this years debt. Hence all we need is some update from Kouroussa on aisc and production to know the full picture. Next year once the AISC for Kouroussa goes down and the production up to 100,000 oz. that is when the serious money will be made.

But they have the cash to settle the court case even if required to pay all at once. Not having any debt and having cash at hand makes the risks very small as to the company being a going concern based on the court case. As they are making money even in these circumstances then the company would continue to operate or heavens forbid they could take on some debt of a few million. The bigger concern is the war and a potential strike on the company assets.