Member Info for Simplyme

Nothing to do with gold price at ATH either? Probably a combination of all of these - someone accumulating as risk/reward is favorable; gold price high and potential leak!

Positive in that the reserves are staying consistent but more importantly that the low cost (by AISC) mine at Kouroussa LOM could be extended to 10 years which will dramatically increase the profitability of HUM and the positive statement from Dan ' As we rapidly approach the point of Kouroussa reaching nameplate production, and the favorable gold price environment, we are ideally positioned to deliver strong returns to all our stakeholders'. Two positives here - rapidly approach nameplate production (which is 120,000 -140,000 p.a. for this mine) and the strong returns to ALL of our stakeholders in that he is confident that this is now finally the turning point for HUM. (with the usual caveat that DB states lots of positives that are not always fulfilled)

The new HUM presentation states 120000 -140000 oz per year from Kouroussa for the first 3 years. Once it hits commercial production this translates to roughly 10000 oz per month. Currently we are at 3,500 oz per month (roughly) at this mine. With this volume increasing until commercial production we should still hit 50,000 oz for this year from Kouroussa which with 80,000 from Yanfolia should mean we are cutting it fine from a financial aspect (due to the high gold prices). AISC are not the total costs for HUM though as this is the cost for sustaining the current operations and we will have additional costs on top so I would not use $1500 per oz AISC but the total cost which will be nearer $1750 per oz. This means we should be touch and go on debt repayments but near enough for it not to be a huge concern especially as 2025 should be a golden year.

The feb presentation stated we would hit commercial production in Q1 2024 (this presentation was given only 7 weeks before end of Q1 so within 7 weeks) - we had 2 more weeks from Corica before they walked off and they have been back for 6 weeks - so 8 weeks in total but still we are not at commercial production and now it stating commerical production will be in Q3 with an update about 4 weeks from now - so what has changed that we are still as far away now with mining having now recommenced and with extra fleets??? DB has to meet his targets as he is the boy who calls wolf too many times and keeps making false promises!!

Only 6 weeks since start-up again so around 650 ozs per week (but probably took a week or so to get plant back on site and crews mobilised again etc.) So over 5 weeks it is 800oz per week - not great but not a disaster. However I note the new presentation has again stated 120000 ozs per year for the first 3 years so that is nearly 2500 oz per week instead of the 800 oz so not at commercial production yet.

Hi Guvvi - so you can work it approximately yourself here is the chart for april onwards - https://www.bullion-rates.com/gold/USD/Daily-90-chart.htm

Gold will most likely average over $2300 for the period april-June but as others have commented the gold price in March was much lower so the 90dma currently includes the much lower price for gold at the end of March. For ease if you wish to use the gold price for working out calculations it is roughly around $2150 for the last 6 months and around $2300 average gold price for the last 3 months.

Although generally good news I do have some concerns with the statements about being a going concern as there does seem to be numerous risks to quantify HUM as a going concern - -what are other thoughts on this?

And to be fair to David - due to HUM history and DB poor communications I can also see a 6 month delay before we hit 20p depending on when we hit commercial production and then waiting 3 months after this to ensure the figures and forecasting stand up to scrutiny. However as stated previously I also believe that even with our usual 'failings' and missing of targets that even if we did fail on the 200,000 oz per year figures and come in even 20% less that we would still reach a multiple of where we are in relation to our current sp. So even our usual 'fail' would still see a positive re-rate in our SP and if we actually did what we promised on the tin and restored confidence in HUM then I could see this going higher than the 20p quite easily.

I think some of the previous posts are a bit naive. We are undervalued because of some of the points raised BUT even if we were inefficient and have the usual issues we would still be valued much higher. If we produce only 160000 oz per year going forward (way under guidance) we would still be valued higher! To also state high gold price is of limited value is also ridiculous as we are getting $2350 per oz for all of our gold due to the high gold price which in turn again makes us undervalued. Even based on previous underperforming by DB it would take even higher incompetence to muck this up and not produce a much higher sp. We have an additional fleet on site now and once we hit commercial production I would expect a 50% increase in sp within a week and once a confirmed forward guidance for kouroussa of anything near 8000 oz per month then I would expect another 30% jump which gets us to the 20p valuation without much trouble. If LOM is extended and Dugbe updates are positive again this should increase the sp even further. On risk reward this is one of the best mining plays as it is producing, has 2 mines operating and also has a huge potential third mine. As debt decreases so will so rise and the risk reward is hugely to the upside at present. If you compare to other mining stocks no matter what way you wish to measure we are undervalued- happy to be shown another producing mining stock that is less valued than HUM based on any metrics!!

I believe DB will start the dugbe project end of next year if gold price stays high- at $2400 gold price we should make over $140m pa (after all in costs have been subtracted) and based on production of 200k. We would be debt free by end of 2025 and only need $400m to build Dugbe. I believe this is his grand plan and if the LOM are extended for current projects then should be feasible. Just hope it all runs smoother than operations currently!!

I dont get that high a sp as we also have significant debt to include in these figures - however as noted a value for dugbe should be included which in my view is equivalent to the level of debt. Also aisc is likely to increase over time for the harder to reach gold and lower grade so I have a sp closer to 40p- still significant upside and if LOM is increased this will rise also

10p is my average but can't see it stopping there. Looking at the figures even if they produce 1000ozs a week from Kouroussa on average for this year (50000 for the year) and 80000 from yanfolia this is still 130,000 with all in cost of say $1800 ( I never use AISC) we would still pay off $65m of debt just missing out on our target of $71m (based on $2300 average gold for the year) and then if the mines ramp up to the 180000 oz next year (still under target) with an all in cost of $1600 and gold staying the same average of $2300 that is $126m we could pay off - be debt free and have cash in bank of say $50m as sure we will have exploration costs etc to extend LOM and Dugbe. I do not think DB will sell dugbe and wants to develop this himself - hence the excess money will be used to build mine 3 I believe (big project and more concerns!!) but could see this all come to fruition in about 5 years - hummingbird having 3 mines and hopefully around 300-400000 a year producer!! SP then will depend on LOMs etc but hugely in excess of where we are today!! Keep the faith GLASH but if gold stays high just for a year or two then I can't see any issues. Takeover at a low ball offer is my biggest concern and I could see this happening at around the 15p mark.

Hi Folks - sorry have not been on the board for a while as I keep a keen eye on MCG (and some other shares). I have bought some more today as hopefully we have hit the bottom. With elections coming up in UK and USA I can see interest rates coming down and hopefully profits up here at MCG! I do believe it makes sense to hold off on the US sale as they are not in dire straits and getting a much higher price is in all of our interests in the longer term - am quite confident here that this share will generally be in an upward trajectory soon and hopefully we will all see over a pound in the near future!! GLA

Well - I have now listened to the presentation and have committed some more funds!! Now my average is around 10p as I see that even if we get 1500ozs a week from kourroussa this gives us 63,500 a year and with 80000oz from yanfolia we should produce over 140000oz this year. Say a total cost of $1800 (aisc is not the total cost) then at $2250 for rest of year average we still make $63m which we can pay off debt. Aware that just like all banks being slightly adrift is fine as long as a plan is in place and if it all works out, LOM gets increased for both and aisc and total costs come down then I see a rosy future!! DYOR but these targets are not overly stretching and we would be fine imo

Hi Beadlem - I agree with you that the shares would even in a share offer scenario be worth more than the share offer price as they have a huge backlog and the financial distress would be removed. What I was highlighting is that a 10:1 dilution in shares does not decimate the share price as the added value is added to the value of the company and even if the raise was priced at 15p it would not have a huge negative impact on the share price as it is already at only 23p and the most it would go down to is the raise price (which would demonstrate if sold out that the company is highly valued and the offer price was too low) and if offer sold out then I have little doubt the sp would be over 23p where it was when I made this comment. It would not be a shareholder wipeout which the previous person was stating and likely have limited impact on current sp and at this price not a total loss.

Hi Badvoc, you have to also add the value added to the company/ reduced debt etc. If shares get diluted 10 to 1 but raise 600m (15p a share) this has to be added to the value of the company. Hence new company might have 4.5bn shares instead of the current 520m (with value of 120m) but would be valued at say 0.7bn which means the shares fall from current 23p to only 15p. Very rough but gives a picture of the impact but is a going concern with 8bn backlog.

HI Gold investor even at your figures of 120koz at $1800 costs we are not too bad! 60000 at say $2100 (due to hedges and reduced gold price at start of year) and then 60000 at $2350 (less than current gold price) we would still make $18m and $33m which is $51m we could pay off the debt and as we both know once we hit commercial production the IASC would go down significantly and the amount of gold produced would increase and we would next year be in a great position. Nor concerned at all even with your figures.

Actually the current situation is much better than I expected as we are producing decent gold. 'Since 18 March 2024, operations at Kouroussa have continued with the processing plant operating at the expected levels with mining via the small existing ETASI support mining fleet and the Company has achieved several weekly gold pours averaging c.700 oz per week.' Averaging 700oz per week is 3000oz per month and over 36000 oz. per year from the lower grade and with gold at say $2300 this is near $30m at say $1500 aisc and 80000 from other mine with AISC of $1700 and $2200 price for gold (most hedged at $2150) that is another $40m and this is not far from our debt payments even without the ramp up! This is a huge de-risk in my view.

On margin call - the hedge is over a 9 month period so at present the exposure is near nothing as for most of this period gold was under the $2150 - it is only for the last month and also as it spread over a number of months our exposure is limited at present and spread out over a longer period (if it is even on a margin call)

As gold goes thorough the $2400 barrier - I again looked at the potential figures for HUM. If they achieve 150,000 ozs this year (start mining soon again!!) even at an AISC of $1700 this will still generate $90m for debt repayment (60000 at hedged price of $2150 and 90000 at $2400). Way over what they require for debt repayments and figures used are a higher AISC than forecast and with less gold produced than forecast). It just shows the potential if this starts mining at todays price and how bright the future could be if we can get the gold out the ground (the million dollar question)