Member Info for Simplyme

The one positive from the RNS is that they are looking at keeping ALL of the work/pipeline and getting guarantees for this - no mention of cutting down on work or workforce or cost-cutting exercises. Also this removes any doubt of them as a going concern - it is just about how much dilution but with a stronger balance sheet and huge profitable pipeline this is not a company that is planning for failure.

I think the point he is raising is that our gold is hedged at $2150 so the upside above this figure is limited. Also the producing mine will have high AISC and reducing gold until the underground section is producing which is H2 2024 - so not yet! Obviously getting $2150 for the gold we produce is still a positive but this is probably only about 15-20,000 ozs at moment a quarter from BOTH mines

Actually - it is next Monday - I miscounted!!

Hi DB -it was widely reported and yes originates from the Corica statement which stated 28 days / here is one example https://kommunikasjon.ntb.no/pressemelding/18060143/corica-mining-services-corica---suspension-of-mining-services-for-hummingbird-resources-plc-at-kouroussa-gold-mine?publisherId=90063 the 28days is today so should be update on Monday as this was made public even though no need to do so.

Corica set a deadline of tomorrow for settlement of debt and deed of company guarantee so will get an update one way or the other on Monday. Corica as a company has never entered into litigation with any company so hopefully a compromise will be reached.

We all should take considered risks and keep an open mind. I am invested at a 12p average (and am not averaging down) and am relatively comfortable with this investment. All people can state what they want - as long as they are not trying to mislead on purpose I see no issues. Ultimately Hum is a producing gold mine in 2 countries with dugbe to add the cherry on top. The risk/reward with this share is very positive in my view and if you have done your due diligence then you too would not be overly concerned. Every company has ups and downs and Hum will produce over 100,000 ozs this year no matter what (issue resolved at some point and some gold still being produced). Even at these figures and with AISC of $1700 we would still be valued higher than we are currently. Short term blip which will soon be overcome - we have had other challenges before and always will but the company has always kept going.

Paul - the big difference in your example is that PFC needs extra money only because they have all of these additional contracts and could decide not to bid for them or even outsource some of this work (reduces their level of guarantees). This was not an option for GKP. PFC decisions are still within their control as at present they can decide to drop some of the backlog and reduce this but simply wish to retain them as they want the profit from the contracts. Hence extreme measures do not need to be considered as they have the option to reduce including workforce and will also get legacy patents and guarantees back soon. The need for much greater liquidity is because they also want and expect to have an even larger backlog of work in the near future which will need even more guarantees. Having a huge backlog is a nice problem to have

And not breaking financial covenants and an update coming next month. They are also having ongoing discussions with clients around the required scale and timing of performance guarantees - if they get these reduced or timing changed then there is even less of a requirement to get the money in quick, do a D4E etc. Seems fine to me

Looks like our hedges may cost us money soon - but a great problem to have only getting $2150 per oz for our gold (limited to only 60,000 ozs) which I would expect 10000 ozs already have got the full rate and not impacted by the hedges. Worst case scenario I see 40000 ozs out of our 160000 ozs this year not getting full market rate which if it comes true is great as it means 120000 at over $2150!! Can see us rising significantly shortly

I agree with never investing more than you can afford to lose. However in this investment I do believe it is heavily weighted in the investors favour as PFC are in control of the outcome and their decision-making gives a clear steer. They bid for the work expecting to get some and got more than they expected (not a major issue but has caused cash flow issues) but they can reduce their bidding pipeline if they wish at any time (they haven't), cut costs if they thought there is an issue (they are currently increasing their workforce and putting new roles on their website every day!!) and have employed a specialist (on huge wages I am sure) to steer them safely through what I would call slightly rough waters as they have been to successful in pipeline bidding!! The actions of PFC are not of a stricken company who sees no future but rather one that is taking the right steps to ensure they are as successful as they can be. GLASH - I am pretty confident we will get good news soon but always dyor

On TAX: For Guinea (Kouroussa) doubt there will be anything but min or no tax paid in first year as we have $60m deferred tax when we bought it from Cassidy Gold and tax deductable costs for the build - so expect zero here and we also may have some tax offset for Mali as well. Overall expect not to pay less than $20m(30% tax rates in both jurisdictions) which is covered in my example by the $25m. Obviously interest payments etc. will reduce over time and tax increases once the tax credits are used but it should easily be covered by our gold if we get 150,000 oz. out the ground which is under the lowest value given.

Don't see the repayment of debt being much of an issue tbh!! Even at $1500 AISC and with production of 150000 ozs (below the lowest guidance) with an average gold price of $2000 (which since HUM have hedged 60000 ozs at min. this price, there is an even lower risk of not achieving this price as a minimum) we would still make $75m and have $25m leeway with the recent fund-raise! Hence the chances of not paying the debt is very low!! Hence once commercial production reached we should start the re-rate!

Amazing that as soon as we start talking about hedges gold goes above $2060 an oz. Good for HUM if we can get the gold party started at Kour!!

And no-one has actually mentioned the more detail on the hedges which seem very prudent and a good range - never under $2000 per oz which gives us $500 per oz profit as a minimum up to $2150 (Sure I stated roughly these numbers previously and everyone doubted this!!) which gives lots of protection and surety that we meet our debt repayments this year

On Kor - basically the worst case scenario is it runs at full production of 9 months at 10,000 oz. is how I read it - the first 3 months this year to get to full production and produce around 10000 oz. and then the rest of the year a minimum of 10000 a month. Considering it was expected to do around 120,000 -140000 a year on full production initially I do think that DB is being conservative and the fact it produced on lower grade material 5000 oz. the last quarter I am content that the figures are easily doable (barring no other events happening!). A vanilla update to me but good future prospects which is good

Hi Bushy - I do my valuation a slightly different way - as mining always has a shelf life and gold can't keep getting produced from the same pit and runs out. I work it out on the mine running out of gold and company not investing any more - just getting the cash and letting the company die. So say 6 years at 200,000 - no major new discoveries and AISC at $1400 so EBIT of $120 - pay off debt, pay taxes etc. and all surplus cash then goes to shareholders as dividend. Still gets to over $300m returned to shareholders - still over 35p for each share.

By road (all major roads by the way - it is 574km and takes only 9 hours using the N2 (one of the key main roads in whole country)

Agree significant delays happen but you can't expect anyone to forecast a major fire in the country that impacts fuel for the whole country!! It is not a common event and priority does go to key sectors such as hospitals! Anyway this is not Db's fault (yes I am defending him on this one aspect) and on debt repayment we are basically covered for the whole first quarter by the raise and it gives us some buffer. Not ideal but things happen in every mining operation. Small delays such as this if the time has been used wisely are not totally bad - especially as they will have got rid of the excess low-grade and that we are now in a better position going forward (as indicated by the rns). I for once are nor overly concerned and believe it is a matter of when we deliver and not if as I do think DB is starting to under promise as demonstrated by the reduced expectations for Kor as I think he has been given some guidance in this area after not delivering numerous times before!!

Hi Jammin86 - does a small delay really matter that much? I agree that this journey has not been perfect but ultimately if Kouroussa is near what it is claimed we will quickly pay down debt and within 2 years be in a great position with minimal debt and 200,000 being produced and all of this will be a distant memory. All we need is for DB to be right just the once on his figures and we will all be smiling. Hopefully come the TU we will al be in a much better place with commerical production reached and the fabled 200000 ozs about to be delivered!

It wont get sold for less than the price last paid or why would CIG invest! Agree this is a possibility around the 12p mark but if they deliver the gold as promised it will rerate as the debt repayments will be massive and within 2 years will be on a solid footing. Still a 50/50 in my eyes and i have an average of 12p so not happy!!