Member Info for Simplyme

Gold at over $2550 - we should do fine :)

Jammin - I have adjusted the AISC for both mines to $1500 (it is forecast around $1500 for Yan and $1005 for Kour) - hence my figure of $1500 AISC average for both mines already took account of the lower gold production. At $2500 POG (currently $2520 gold price) historically Yan would be massively profit making as will Kour. With the exception of the last quarter - for the previous 2 years HUM has not has an AISC at Yanfolila of over $1701 - so would be making at least $800 an ounce at this price just at Yan. Even at $1700 AISC at Yan, a $1300 AISC at Kour would still produce less than $1500 average for both mines. It is the future that matters and as stated it is due to the high POG even less of a risk that DB will mess things up and if it underdelivers the mines have a large leeway to underdeliver and even then HUM would still re-rate. Happy for you to do any calcs you wish based on any meaningful time-frame which will demonstrate that Yan at $2500 POG does not make a profit as this scenario does not exist.

Hi wilco - agree with all that you state and that if it was not for the high POG we would be in dire straits. I like you have held these for a while and have hovered over the sell button a few times as it approaches my average (just over 10p) - this took a lot of extra buying and averaging down so that I now have a larger holding than I would ideally have wanted. Where I believe the situation is finally different this time is that even if DB does not deliver as stated (he always overpromises) we should finally still re-rate as even if we produced well under his target in 2025, for eg. 160,000 ozs at say $1500 AISC which are both well under his target/forecast HUM would still be making great money and FCF. If POG stays high we have limited risks and should pay our debt off comfortably. This is despite poor DB management but simply the macro-economics in play. For once I am slightly more confident as even with poor mismanagement we should still be fine and finally make good money.

New presentation is here for anyone interested: https://wp-hummingbirdresources-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/09/Hummingbird-Resources-Corporate-Presentation-Beaver-Creek-Summit-September-2024-Final.pdf

Great Presentation - being produced today but gives clear indications on gold expected from both mines for Q3 and Q4 - which must be based on real data for the first 2 months - around 36000 ozs for Q3 from both mines (around 18000 ozs each) and then for Q4 expected to get around 55,000 ozs - 25,000 from Yan and 30,000 from Kour. Our hedging though is in place until end of Q1 2025! But as it is only 15,000 ozs per quarter should mean that the majority is at higher price. No dugbe sale at these figures needed.

Application is being made for the admission of the 181,833,333 New Ordinary Shares to trading on AIM ("Admission") and Admission is expected to occur at 8.00 a.m. on or around 18 September 2024.

Following Admission, the Company's enlarged issued share capital will be 698,225,576 Ordinary Shares.

so simple maths is 516,392,243 shares before the 181,833,333 shares are added. so just over 35.2% dilution

Hi Punter - I don't know why you keep on going on about the riany season when this year has been one of the mildest in both Yanfolila and Kouroussa. https://www.visualcrossing.com/weather-history/yanfolila/metric/2024-07-01/2024-09-04

and for Kouroussa: https://www.visualcrossing.com/weather-history/kouroussa/metric/2024-07-01/2024-09-04

The level of precipitation is not that high bar a few days here and there at both sites and it has been a relatively mild last couple of months.

Yes - pretty obvious - I know PB (his proper name) from Evraz chatboard and he is from Germany. He is a nice guy who was heavily invested in Evraz and has also invested here - I believe significantly more since he sold his evraz share. I hope it works out for him as he does put a lot of effort into informing people and does good research on a number of shares. He is optimistic but that is not a bad traqit.

Hi Punter64, I agree in having little faith in DB forecasts as they often state an overpromise. However this is why I have little doubt that HUM will be fine. DB does overpromise and underdeliver BUT this is the huge BUT even on his usual miss HUM will be profitable and re-rate. Overall when DB misses with his production figures it is within a largish ball-park and that if HUM get anywhere near the figures quoted BY DB then they will be fine. Do I agree that AISC will be higher than predicted by DB - YES; do I believe production of gold will be lower - YES. However this is normal. Do I believe that HUM will produce over 110,000 ozs this year - YES (even under their worst forecast) and do I believe that their AISC for both mines for the year will be less than $1800 - YES (and significantly higher than what DB predicts). Even with these figures HUM because of the POG will be profitable and next year will be transformative for the company when AISC will reduce to less than $1500 average (across both mines) and we produce more than 150,000 ozs. No worries from me on HUM.

Vanilla rns - nothing that significant but dividend slightly up and debt down - so hopefully may buck the trend today as I generally expect a weak market today following the USA yesterday.

Hopefully oil stays at this price for two quarters as this price is under the pricing rate for the epl!

Indeed so hard nowadays if you don't have 3 holidays a year you are deprived!! I did not have an overseas trip until I was in my twenties and it was camping in France - very exotic - boy, how lucky the older generation have had it!!

Yes - In the past having less holidays than now; having less benefits than now; prepared to do any job for any wage; working 60 hours week with 3 weeks holiday a year and less 'national' holidays = all much better in the good old days when you could work till you drop. Now a 4 day week and the privilege of working from home and producing nothing or even being able to do hard work. Indeed stay at home and life on benefits - I had no heating, outdoor toilet when I grew up - so much easier and no gadgets to do all the housework (unlike nowadays!!). Indeed times are hard if you don't have a great sound system and Alexa to turn the tv over for you (and hundreds of channels as so busy nowadays they need so many). Christ - even the bins have wheels instead of having to lift them manually. So much harder nowadays!! p.s. I used to cycle 12 miles each way just to get to work as could not afford a car for numerous years!!

Hence the value of Dugbe could be based on the other mine just or this one but realistically, it should be sold somewhere between the $100m and $200m but my personal view is nearer the $100m valuation. This would still make a massive difference to HUM as they would concentrate on two mines and have much less debt.

Hi Bushytailed - yes you are correct that I value this at a 40% reduction as the only deal that is comparable in the last year in my view was Marathon Gold acquisition ( the only pre-production asset sold) which had 5.114m proven R & R and was sold for $248m. Details are here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/research/mining-ma-in-2023-robust-activity-focused-on-gold

However this mine was not totally comparable as construction was also 50% complete at site: https://vocm.com/2023/11/15/calibre-mining-acquires-marathon-gold/

This is not the case for Dugbe so hence the lower price of $100m which in my view also reflects the higher POG (I did reckon perhaps $120m). Sorry this may not be the news you wanted to hear but i just try to be realistic.

Hi Punter64 - don't think you understand the Dugbe mine ownership structure- Pasofino own 100% of Dugbe and HUM own 53% of Pasofino. Hence if you sell all of Pasofino Gold (the company) you own 100% of Dugbe mine. HUM will get 53% of whatever price Pasofino is sold for (although may also agree to keep part of the mine etc.)Personally I think the figures of $200m are too high and think that nearer $100m is more likely (aware others will disagree with this valuation) but if sold for $100m HUM would get $53m (and no longer have an interest in Dugbe mine). As the largest shareholder they ultimately will decide if Pasofino accept any bid and the value it is sold for.

Thought this would be useful for most people - it is the pasafino presentation on Dugbe. https://s26.q4cdn.com/952577408/files/doc_presentations/2023/01/1Pasofino-Corporate-Presentation-Jan-2023.pdf

Not only is is low cost at $1005 per oz AISC but the tax rate is very beneficial at only 25% income tax rate and 3% royalty charge - all very good and the government takes 10% of the mine but the previous are very good terms. It is near a port and major miners are already in country. Others can read and make up their own mind based on this rather than made up rants and issues raised by others.

If we get a decent price for Dugbe then all good but the main concern is still getting the gold out of the ground at both mines and hitting commercial production at Kour. I realistically expect to get around 33-38,000 out of both mines in Q3 which at an AISC of around $1600 and an average selling price of gold of around $2250 actually means we should be fine from a financial perspective. And for Q4 we should get at least 43-50,000 ozs out of the mines at a lower AISC ($1400) and a higher average price of gold at $2400. This is when the real money starts to be made and from this point onwards. If the mine production comes on line as expected (caveat that DB is correct) and we produce 200,000 oz in 2025 and gold stays as it is at around $2500 and aisc is around $1300 for both mines this will seriously rerate irrespective of Dugbe and any sale. The focus must still be on getting gold out of the mines and lets not get side-tracked by Dugbe - 3-4 weeks until next results!!

So here is a professional giving valuations for 'gold in the ground' - surely not as skilled or knowledgeable as our own goldinvestor but has some value: https://aheadoftheherd.com/getchell-gold-a-case-study-of-gold-in-the-ground-richard-mills/ . Key highlights are that average price paid was $63 per oz but that median price was $39 per oz. Using the lower end it still values Dugbe at over $80m and also the article states that with gold rising the values should increase.

Have to agree $100m I feel would be around the expected price (I actually put a ball park of around $80-120m) - may go slightly higher than this price due solely to gold price and if it increases but even then if we got $100m I would not be unhappy. Of which HUM would get around $50m which would ensure we could concentrate on our two existing mines and have no future debt worries which I would also be happy with. However feel DB would like to get an even higher premium than this and the deal will not happen. Anything over 50m for HUM itself would be a great deal.