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Agree significant delays happen but you can't expect anyone to forecast a major fire in the country that impacts fuel for the whole country!! It is not a common event and priority does go to key sectors such as hospitals! Anyway this is not Db's fault (yes I am defending him on this one aspect) and on debt repayment we are basically covered for the whole first quarter by the raise and it gives us some buffer. Not ideal but things happen in every mining operation. Small delays such as this if the time has been used wisely are not totally bad - especially as they will have got rid of the excess low-grade and that we are now in a better position going forward (as indicated by the rns). I for once are nor overly concerned and believe it is a matter of when we deliver and not if as I do think DB is starting to under promise as demonstrated by the reduced expectations for Kor as I think he has been given some guidance in this area after not delivering numerous times before!!
Hi Jammin86 - does a small delay really matter that much? I agree that this journey has not been perfect but ultimately if Kouroussa is near what it is claimed we will quickly pay down debt and within 2 years be in a great position with minimal debt and 200,000 being produced and all of this will be a distant memory. All we need is for DB to be right just the once on his figures and we will all be smiling. Hopefully come the TU we will al be in a much better place with commerical production reached and the fabled 200000 ozs about to be delivered!
It wont get sold for less than the price last paid or why would CIG invest! Agree this is a possibility around the 12p mark but if they deliver the gold as promised it will rerate as the debt repayments will be massive and within 2 years will be on a solid footing. Still a 50/50 in my eyes and i have an average of 12p so not happy!!
Could PFC simply decide to pick and choose their new contracts and what ones they give a guarantee to - the ones with the biggest margins (or ask for an upfront payment if the company wish for PFC to take on for the guarantee which is returned to them on completion?). This is pretty common in business and relatively simple to do and requires little capital investment but simply trust between trusted partners such as ADNOC and PFC. D4E will not happen as the company could drop a contract rather than go down this path and still have a larger backlog.
Agree - not a great update and although we all agree that long term it is more compelling for HBR most investors will have better returns from other companies for 2024 especially in SP growth so can't see this going well today
GG - you could produce for 50 years but whether it is economically to do so is a different matter which is why I would like your insights into commercial productivity as we all agree production will fall and there comes a point in all wells they are no longer economically viable which is the number I wish for as this is not my area of expertise but knowing this makes a huge difference to whether this is an investment or not - rather than keep asking I would appreciate your view on the figures and commercial output
Only 10 new jobs added today and over 200 new jobs in total - recruiting very heavily for all of the new work- must be in trouble as obviously they would cut roles if they were major risks
https://petrofac.referrals.selectminds.com/latest-jobs
And thanks vistaman for giving some idea to me as this is useful to know others are seeing similar - thanks
This is the important aspect for me - gas recovery is better than oil and is usually between 50-80% and why I got to approx. 12 years but people told me I am massively wrong with my figures hence what have I done wrong. Obviously production decreases each year so it is not simply 17 years halved if 50% rate so hence why I came to around 12 years as these are older fields I would assume nearer to the 50% - great if someone who was more of an expert could be more definitive.
So how many years of reserves do others get? And how do they get to this figure?
Thanks to some for the additional info - as the dividend is 25% at present (roughly) per year - not sure how anyone thinks you would get your investment back in a year (greygeorge) great if you could give the figures. Otherwise we all know who the idiot is!! However as stated I expected the sp to go down by around 10% so you actually lose a pound and gain 2.50 which is a 1.5 profit but people like myself pay 40% dividend tax so actually profit is greatly reduced. . Next year the dividend would reduce and so on. Thanks roddw1 - article was useful but still states debt takes 10 years to get rid off which I agree with but also have the wells to cap but if the reserves are only roughly 12 years it does not leave much over at the end. Thanks for the information
Thanks for highlighting this error - no it did not as I took it from the figures from the interim report 2023 (up to Sept)
I am not an investor but have looked at DEC accounts and did consider investing. Please ignore my ignorance as I am relatively new but this is what I have interpreted from their accounts. Their current reserves seem to be for about 12 years max. and it is expected that there will be a 10% decrease every year from current production which in turn will impact the revenue and profit. So in turn without further acquisitions I would expect the dividend payments and share price to also decrease slightly over time (however you are compensated by the dividends which make up the shortfall). Hence I see the current price as around correct as you get your money back in dividends but the value of the company and shares also diminishes each year but less than the dividend so every year you make a small profit. After 12 years the company has no reserves and you have got more than the money invested back (if you bought at the price today). Is that everyone elses understanding? Happy to be shot down as relatively new to the company and as stated considering investing if the price drops a bit more. Please do correct me.
What will happen will happen....whether a bull or a bear. Most of the talk now is just rubbish and views based on limited information and not that informative. I am long with an average just above the SP so my only concern is whether to top up more and wait either for the expected sp rise or potential dilution - same for us all no matter our position. Just a waiting game for us all and then for us all to decide on our exit strategy and when. GLA.
As US is shut today that won't be a factor this afternoon :)
Agree with slift post except that that PFC have not made massive cost savings and are hiring at a colossal rate. This is not a sign of a company that has major concerns and given the ownership structure very much doubt D4E would ever be majorly considered. I do see a 'partnership' or cornerstone investor but all roads all lead to protecting the main shareholders and that the company is aggressively winning contracts and hiring staff so their concerns are not major!
Wood group reported their results today - steady results and getting steadily better year on year with good future projects and more 'green' work in the pipe-line which should be a boost for PFC as well as the sector and contracts are improving for both in the future.