Member Info for ShearClass

The level 2 order book is looking really positive now, PEEL are offering 7.25, then SINGER & Winterfloods are 7.50, SCAP & MREX are next at 8p. If buying continues to outweigh selling then there appears very little resistance.

The market cap here vs US listed peers such as Seer ($3b), Nautilus ($1.4b) and Quantum-Si ($1.4b) is nonsensical. It's also worth noting that in 2013 PRM hit a 74p off the back of their agreement with Thermo Fisher, which is still performing very well. They had 196m shares in issue then vs 295m today, but even so the valuation of £145m is 7x the current level...

With collaborations & strategic clarity promised in 2021, I really can't see too much downside from the current levels? Especially seeing as they are cash generative...

hahahaha, sold at a loss to join at a crazy low price? Do you realise there was a placing of 193m shares at 1p on 6th April?? What do you think those holders are going to do with their shares which are sitting at a 170% profit? Total volume since the IPO has been just over 100m, so any sellers have plenty left in the tank. Oh and there are at least 40m founder shares that were issued at 0.001p which don't appear to be locked in...

Multi year breakout of the 5p range is significant, backed up by the 900k director buy which is a material amount... I think this goes much higher, it appears materially undervalued vs peers.

100m shares issued when the company was incorporated in March 2020 @ a price of 0.001p (100m shares for £100k), a further 193m were issued in a placing at 1p per share on 6th April 2021 including some 4m to BLU. So why is this now trading at 4.3p? It should be cash value (3.5p) at best, but that doesn't explain why the share price rose 500% in 10 calendar days between two placings...

Jab 2018 didn’t recover, any significant new regulation could lead to a severe drop - what would worry me here is the amount of selling last week across all listed crypto shares, followed by today’s drop. It all seems coordinated, and let’s face it the valuation here has already baked in $200k BTC!

I couldn't agree more BRod74. The fact is if you weren't over exposed when the news dropped on Friday then this is a fantastic opportunity to double your holding and significantly reduce your average. Conversely, if you had 30/40/50%+ of your net worth in here then it's easy to see why you would be very upset with management. Another reminder of why risk management is the absolute key to successful investing.

When comparing what we know of NCYT's financials at 31/12 to SourceBio's results this morning, it becomes obvious that the current price is an even bigger gift than before the H120 results were released last September. Back then with the share price hovering around £3, we had zero knowledge of the impending government contract. Our visibility was only on the €72.4m H1 sales and period end cash of €19m. Yet even at that stage the market valued NCYT at £210m.

Now we are at £4 / £290m with a confirmed cash balance of £91m and that would very likely have excluded a significant receivables position due from DHSC (and pre the £72m of Q1 sales). Now that bottom appears to be in, I've taken a decent position for the first time since January, the risk/reward from these levels is too good to ignore IMO.

@Harchris, ALNOV + ODDO are the problems here. The ODDO note in particular gives an obvious target for shorters.

I do think GM needs to issue a public response to such a farcical 'underperform' note, as per the October RNS, ODDO's role was described as 'an independent Franco-German financial services group, for the initiation of equity research coverage in France for the Company.' Personally I think this is purely political & represents the current poisonous relationship between the UK & France in relation to vaccine supply, nothing else makes sense when you consider cash generation & potential for future M&A based on the warchest they had at the end of 2020...

As suspected ALNOV is dragging down the price with volume still over 2x that of AIM. What they need to do is spin off Primerdesign and list that on the main market and leave Novacyt on Euronext Paris with Microgen etc. Sourcebio reported 2020 revenues of £50m and a cash balance of £8.4m this morning and have a market cap of £150m vs the £280m here, the difference is almost equal to the NCYT market cap! Nevermind the fact that Q1 revenues exclusing any DHSC contribution were almost equal to FY20 revenues for Sourciobio... insane.

At the end of the day NCYT are effectively a British company listed on the French exchange, and we all know what relations between the British and French and like at present. If Primerdesign was listed on AIM it's market cap would be far higher than at present, look at ORPH for example, it's now over £300m and doesn't have anything like the cash or revenue that NCYT has. If ORPH was listed on Euronext Paris would they be valued at this level? Not a chance IMO. But that is the problem here, the French listing drives the price and no revenue is made in France... Medium term as more shares move to UK shareholders, I suspect that they might consider canning the dual listing, it would certainly improve share price stability and reaction to newsflow.

In the short term I don't see how NCYT avoids dropping to €4.1 / £3.54 after that underperform note, so buying here is like swimming against the French tide IMO. The question is how will the NCYT board react to this? I'm assuming they are in a closed period at present so can't buy on the open market... they could initiate share buy backs though...

The problem here is the uncertainty that now exists re. the government dispute on the £150m+ contract. You also really don't want to get into a dispute with the government either... even if you win it just means no more future business. Sorry to all that have lost big here, I hope the long termers have taken plenty of profit.

Certainly a big chunk of them cleared - the best analogy I've heard is to imagine the sellers shares on a set of scales. When a chunk gets taken off like the 2.4m earlier, the scales rise. That's the share price. If they aren't completely out then they are a good deal closer now. 4 v 2 on L2, so the order book is strengthening considerably.

Now at 117-3 in buys v sells... a big delayed sell of 530k has been printed from last night. Significantly above average volume will help clear fidelity quickly, hopefully we can rack up 10m plus over the next week.

62 trades this morning, 61 buys and 1 sell... £500k of volume. I've rarely seen such a one sided situation.

The conversion price is set at 25.5p, it doesn’t matter whether the share price at the time they convert is £1 or 1p, they pay the same amount. Clearly they believe it should be valued above the current level or they wouldn’t have converted!

Some good buying today, a push beyond 20p isn't far off now at all...technically that was a textbook bounce off the 200 DMA / support at 17p.

Re. Fidelity, between their notification on 12th October that they had 26,508,352 shares and their most recent on 12th March that they had 13,427,162, they sold 13, 081,190. Total volume in the period between notifications was 49m shares.

Since their 12th March notification total volume has been 10m shares, however as others have pointed out, at least 80% have been buys. I'd say we need another 20-30m of volume to clear FIL. The average daily volume for the last 20 days is 680k, so another 30-45 trading days at that rate. However, a couple of chunky days can speed things up considerably. 2021 interims are in 36 trading days, so they could be the ultimate trigger to send this towards 200p+

Either way, I've taken a position as it's very possible that Monday's update will move the SP to new highs.

81992 shares bought at 18.87p at 9.34, sold at 18p at 10.33, if whoever made that trade is reading this BB then I hope they feel embarrassed!

There were a few 100k buys yesterday - it's probably the same individual who's overexposed themselves and then shat the bed. Strong horizontal support + the 200 DMA at 17p, if news arrives on Monday then the market has perfectly walked the price back to previous support. In mid December Webbs would have been saying it was heading back to previous levels, it then bounced from 16p to 40p...

I see the little sellers continue to drop off, no doubt selling at a loss to chase other risers (the way to disaster). I suspect we'll get a drilling update next week as that's what was mentioned on the recent call. Also positive to see the gold price rising again :)

Looks like the Duferco overhang is clearing / cleared, should see a rapid recovery to the 18-20p level for starters. Technically it's also bounced off the horizontal support at 15.4p which acted as resistance for so long last year (7 rejections before it broke through!).