Member Info for ShearClass

Euronext Paris is undoubtedly the reason for the current valuation, 99.9% of our revenue is derived outside France and 95% of our employees are based in the UK, yet as recently as last September's AGM, 70% of shareholders were from Euronext. This will have surely be closer to 50/50 now. The important thing to remember is that NCYT listed on AIM more recently than Euronext, so as far back as 2016 there was a desire to list outside of France. Dropping that listing would save significant admin, but will no doubt be a complicated endeavour...

Heading back sub $20k by the looks of things, this is reminiscent of Jan 2018... remember that ARB was 5p as recently as November!

Macmdude, the same shorters held the price in the £3 range during August + early September last year, had you been around then I'm sure you would also have been claiming things didn't add up. The shorters here are quant companies; their sells are automated based on a strategy of trading known quantitative facts, for example our historic 2019 PE vs market cap, which for NCYT looks silly due to the huge earnings increase last year. They got punished last year and will do so again IMO, but it presents a fabulous opportunity for those who do their own research.

Just watched the closing auction - 2.8m shares changed hands at £3.4, almost equivalent to the whole days volume, very unusual to see that. I think the first few months here are a great opportunity to accumulate at prices below the IPO level, as soon as the half year results hit the market & the growth rate + profitability is confirmed then I think AWE will take off. I took an opening position last week at 3.35 and will add further below this level. In the short term the lower it goes the better as far as I'm concerned, once the fundamentals are confirmed the UK funds will have to bite the bullet and buy in.

Always makes me laugh when you've got PI's declaring buys for 18k shares and trying to suggest there is manipulation ongoing whilst at the same time you have sells of 8.2m shares popping up at 4.5p... wake up!

The long and short of it is this; 546m shares will have been issued in this sorry saga & HEMO will have received a net amount of £2.3m. That's equivalent to 0.4p per share. This will be used as a case study for decades on how not to raise capital...

The very fact that they forecast £2m will last 2 years indicates this is overvalued, that is chicken feed in the industry they are targeting...

The fact is the £21m valuation commanded by Cizzle in the RTO seems rich for a company that hasn't spent a penny on R&D since 2017 (as per the prospectus). They are a million miles away from commercialisation & a lot of money will be required for 510k applications etc... £5-10m would have been more sensible, so if we see 4p or less then it may be more interesting.

DOT now at $48.60, interesting that cardano, DOT, Kusama & Cosmos and others are defying the fall in BTC, it’s fairly unusual to have such a split in the movement of digital assets. If Musk comes out and backs a proof of stake project then the ‘great flippening’ could occur quite quickly… all great news for KR1.

The difference with the tech IPO is that the company is already profitable as well as growing rapidly. The £360m raised will allow them to expand their headcount, product offing & R&D significantly. The media love nothing more than to scoff at failed tech listings, they’ll soon be eating their words here IMO

There’s already been a significant pullback… 2023 revenues are estimated to be $240m, 2020 EBITDA margin 54% which if maintained would deliver around £90m PBT. So at the current share price AWE is on a 2 year forward PE of 25, Fevertree is on 46… Overall, it’s far from expensive if they execute, and there are plenty of signs that they are a world class company that could exceed expectations.

Barclays are the only brokers offering it that I use (HL & ii aren't). I've bought an initial tranche as it looks much better value with a 20% haircut, market cap now around £2.2b, cash of £360m, profit before tax of $22m in 2020 (up from $3m in 2019), EPS 2.4p ish. Sure it looks expensive on these metrics, but I suspect PBT could be pushing £100m in the next couple of years given the global demand for microchips... that would deliver EPS of over 10p, putting it on a current forward P/E of around 30... Given their growth rate it's possible they could exceed this. It certainly wipes the floor with Darktrace...

I bet the BBC wouldn't have picked up on it if it had been a Primerdesign product ;)

@b2h, most likely because they need to scale up manufacturing, source materials, check whether it works with multiple different variants etc etc. A bit look Virolens that TT Electronics were involved in last year, nothing is ever as straightforward as is made out in press releases...

Added some more this morning around the 3.75 mark, it defies logic that we are back at the same levels as three weeks ago, but that's the market for you. For some context, we were at £3.45 last August, which was before variants were even a thing, before the DHSC contract and before another £287m of revenue had been booked! (£214m H2 20, £72m Q1 21), yet the market cap sits just £20m above what it was back then... amazing.

Valju, what does the price per share have to do with anything? It's market cap and Enterprise Value that matter;

NCYT: £278m, £92m cash at 31/12, likely £150m now, EV of £130m ish
AVCT: £677m, cash of £47m at 31/12, likely £40m now, EV of £630m ish

So they are valued at almost 4 x the value of NCYT, despite them having next to zero revenue... yes they have a pre clinical therapeutics business, but that was valued at around £30m pre pandemic and it's still pre clinical now!

It's an extraordinary variance, which if reversed would bear more of a resemblance to reality. It just shows what aggressive PR & associated positive sentiment can do vs honest PR and contrasting negative sentiment. We are currently valued at less than 1 x EV / Sales, despite having gross margins of 80%+!

From an hour ago;

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-third-uk-wave-could-occur-in-late-summer-if-reopening-continues-scientists-warn-12303671

SNPsig will be vital tool going forwards…

The $197 ICP (IOU) token was the unlicensed grey market that was trading prior to the listing, effectively like buying IOU's in an IPO that hasn't listed yet. That price is now irrelevant.

The coinbase price is $440ish as is Binance; https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/internet-computer/markets/ , not sure where the $200 quote has come from...

LSE volume almost double France today at 329k vs 168k, at some point in the near future I’d expect Euronext to stop driving the share price. Really is quite tedious to see Worldquant controlling two exchanges with their silly little short - so similar to the situation last September with Voleon, we all know what happened eventually!

Eggshead, so to clarify you think they hold £114m of BTC & ETH?! That sum is equivalent to 1500 BTC + 20k ETH… when have they ever had the resources to buy that many? Also in their interims at 30/06/20 they had £4.6m in digital currencies (pre DOT listing, but they had about $3m of ATOM). Your figures look way out to me.