Member Info for ShearClass

Agree re. Bidstats, I just think it's unlikely that we only received £17.7m for a contract which was to supply 288k tests a week for 6 months... so some of that October / November amount has to be related to the first contract IMO.

They could well be trying to wiggle out of as much as possible given they spent £86b between Nov and Feb! It doesn't mean they'll be able to do so though. Either way, it would appear very likely that we have received £48m since year end to add to our £91.8m cash at 31/12, that alone will be a positive surprise to the wider market.

Nice to see the WQ short reducing too and a little recovery. Managed to add 2k shares earlier at 3.3917, never thought I'd see those levels again!

@ChrisToffer, I downloaded all of the DHSC >£25k spending data from Apr 2020 to Feb 2021 and may have an answer.

Our first DHSC contract RNS'd in April 2020 is below;

https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W45/738394473

Value: £63m, delivery; 26 Apr 2020 to 04 Nov 2020

Totals disclosed as payments by DHSC to Primer Design;

2020 £143,462,233.63
Jul £9,943,730.35
Aug £6,535,267.20
Sep £1,286,239.20
Oct £33,322,822.08
Nov £92,374,174.80
2021 £47,926,629.60
Feb £47,926,629.60
Grand Total £191,388,863.23

July - October 2020 totals £51m, this ties quite closely to the first tender. Key point being there were no revenue expectations for 2020, so if we only received £42m net of VAT from a £63m tender award then the market would be non the wiser. Perhaps this was also why we inserted the minimum order value into the second contract?

That leaves £140m gross / £116m net received for tender 2 and nothing paid for the PROmate orders in Q1...

To me it makes sense to assume that the payments made include VAT, if they do then we are £34m short of the £150m minimum payment.

£34m would be a material amount vs £277m invoiced / declared 2020 revenues.

Clearly this is a high level guesstimate. The main issue being there is over a month of crossover between the two contracts, however payments of just £17.7m to September for the first contract don't make much sense. Some of the £33m paid in October has to relate to that, and potentially some of the £92m paid in November as well.

@Christoffer, from the 24th Feb RNS:

Successful completion and publication of TVG validation of PROmate™

"As stated in the announcement on 29 January 2021, the UK's in-service validation of the PROmate™ assay using the Company's q16 and q32 instrument platforms was successfully completed in December 2020 and published by the Technology Validation Group (TVG) in January 2021."

Say we started to provide PROmate in early Jan and invoiced on 30 day terms. By the 9th April trading update nothing would have been at 90 days overdue. However, fast forward to 21st May and that changes... hence the two RNS's.

Agree with that thought process Soder, nicely put. It could also be as simple as NCYT consider invoices that are unpaid after 90 days as 'in dispute'. Q1 wouldn't have been at 90 days on 9th April but they are now... This was the case for ABDX.

@Starbright, I think you are over simplifying to a large degree. There is an awful lot of information that the market isn't aware of beyond the DHSC dispute, if the market is made aware of the companies future strategy, cash balance & the amount under dispute with DHSC, which it presumably will be by 29th June, will the share price still be at £3.50? You are trying to claim that the market has correctly valued all elements of NCYT & that no negative sentiment exists that has forced the price down to an oversold position...

The answer to our current valuation is the sum of a number of different parts, very simply it could be summarised as;

1. Perceived value of current fundamentals + 2. potential net present value of future cash flows + / - 3. sector or stock specific sentiment

1. There is very little clarity on what our current fundamentals are beyond having £91m of cash at 31/12 and £72m of sales in Q1 21. We don't know our year end net asset position was & how much remained receivable from DHSC, so can't judge if the cash position is anywhere near accurate. The DHSC dispute may or may not impact our known fundamentals...

2. Our future cash flows aren't at all dependant on DHSC, and regardless we are part of the NHS framework. The market has already been told we aren't getting an extension so that is priced in, hence the fall from £6.90. R&D will drive future cash flows far more than the result of the DHSC dispute, and we appear to have an excellent reputation around the world...

3. Sentiment is driven by newsflow & disclosures to the market, at the moment sentiment is very negative.

Within all of that are a lot of smaller factors that can have an amplified impact on sentiment + potential future cash flows, such as the LFT release.

As for being like betting on red or black, an oil company drilling a wildcat well is like that - fundamentals, future cash flows & sentiment are all tied to one event. NCYT is nothing like that.

Thanks for the reply nightmarewalking - have bought in now - that makes a huge difference to the contents of this mornings RNS... 197k shares on the buy side on L2 which is what has prompted the jump...

ABDX disclosed precise details of their DHSC dispute, what good has it done them? Sure, shareholders are aware of the amounts involved but it doesn't change anything in the long term. What matters is how the dispute is resolved and what the financial impact is. ABDX stated that they may have to cut cash costs if the dispute isn't resolved quickly, NCYT are on a hiring spree...

£240m has been wiped off the company valuation since the 9th April RNS, £520m since the day before the full year trading update. We are now valued at £85m less than the day before we announced the DHSC contract... Taking our current cap & deducting year end cash of £91.8m we have an EV of just £154m, this is only around £40m higher than Sourcebio & ODX and £60m higher than Yourgene who had 2020 sales of £18.1m...

And that's ignoring the elephant that is AVCT. At present AVCT and NCYT are at complete opposite ends of the sentiment spectrum. They still don't even have a professional test, yet have added more than £250m to their market cap since the start of 2021, that's more than our current valuation!

ValJu. What PR stuff do you want GM to do?

What good would publicly disclosing details of the DHSC dispute do?

If you need some reassurance go read the contents of the 23rd April R&D RNS (released only 20 trading days ago), it even reiterates that; "PROmate™ remains the only direct-to-PCR assay approved by the UK's Technology Validation Group and enables near-to-patient testing with results in under 90 minutes."

The market has assumed, without any form of evidence, that the DHSC dispute WILL impact Q4+Q1 revenues. Both the 9th April + 21st May RNS's both use the word MAY.

As per 9th April RNS, "the Company supplied PROmate™ in Q1 2021 in accordance with DHSC demand." If DHSC has simply over ordered in Q1 then I will be very surprised indeed if they can simply cancel these orders - what sort of precedent would it set if the UK government can effectively change their mind about contractual sales because it turned out that in hindsight they ordered more than they should have done?

Further, see here for the DHSC technical report on PROmate, published in Feb; https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957995/TVG_Report-PROmate.pdf

"The validation performance of the PROMate assay aligns with the acceptable performance characteristics for sensitivity and specificity for the point of care (rapid testing)."

So they have publicly disclosed that performance is in line with expectation. They have ordered a material volume of the assay in Q1. They have now realised that they have too many assays (as per 9th April RNS that this will likely support roll out plans for the rest of 2021). Why is that Novacyt's problem? And why should GM need to spoon feed this to shareholders in fuzzy rose tinted language in the midst of the dispute?

Patience, belief & comprehension of released information is required here. Easier said than done of course.

Why do they disclose how many were in the overall study but not how many were in the US arm? I can also confirm that a copy of the poster is NOT available on their posters and publications arm. I'm afraid without the geographic split of patient numbers this data means very little. What if the US was just 20 patients?

I wouldn't worry about shytecoins, most of them are on dodgy exchanges and you would never feel safe putting more than a few hundred quid in them! KR1 has been unfairly impacted by the decline seen in BTC miners since the mid Feb highs, however many of it's projects will grow in strength over the next few years and will hopefully gain enough exposure to be properly understood and valued by the wider market. Is DOT worth $3b $30b or $300b? Impossible to really say right now. Same as with ICP.

Proof of stake & web 3.0 projects make sense to me as an inevitable evolution of the digital world. Proof of work and the speculation it attracts is looking increasingly outdated and questionable though. Sure, there is scarcity in BTC, but that means nothing if people don't want to hold it. Negative ESG connotations mean this is starting to become a reality. With DOT tokens being key to accessing an ecosystem, it's a lot more logical that they would attract a higher value over time if that ecosystem gains in popularity.

KR1 are in pole position to access the best new projects and I'm convinced that at some point in the next 10 years £2 a share will seem cheap...in the near term there could be some pain though.

I have NAV of liquid tokens at 79p… all very reminiscent of the January 2018 crash. DOT and ATOM are currently down 63% in 7 days… The fundamental problem remains that all crypto prices are effectively pegged to BTC. I believe this will change over the coming decade but it will take time as they need to develop proper fundamentals.

I hope PI’s aren’t too exposed here, having first bought KR1 in Jan 2018 at 16p and seen it fall to 4p I suspected this was coming sooner or later but the speed of the drop is still shocking.

Do we have an estimates on the per test royalty we will be receiving from the likes of Fit2fly? I was on my NHS patient access login this evening and noticed that Fit2fly were the recommended (only) provider for both 2 day & next day services at £145 - £165 respectively.

For those unaware of the link to Nova; https://fit2flytest.com/

“Our accredited laboratories that process your test are part of the VersaLab network powered by Primerdesign. Using only the Primerdesign gensig® RT-PCR test kits, the gold standard in PCR detection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”

Even at a very prudent 10% royalty we are making ~£15 for providing the gold standard in testing… however you could easily imagine us taking 20%+ given our world class reputation.

I very much doubt our esteemed analysts have factored in material revenue from Versalab, however given the progressive government stance on holidays + huge demand, I can foresee this being a big revenue driver.

So many strings to our bow, yet will still have so many sad acts on here trying to talk it down from £3.57!

@Harchris, below is the trading volume history since Jan 2020 (left column) + value traded (right column, valued estimated by multiplying closing price for the day by volume, but gives an idea). May is on track to be the lowest volume month since July 2020, with only August 2020 lower. Is it chance that this has coincided with a period of sustained price weakness?

Sell in May & go away / overall market weakness / people taking advantage of a break in the sun now it's allowed? Volume will return, likely when the results land...
2020 458,513,427.00 1,533,843,624.33
Jan 15,049,284.00 5,531,603.11
Feb 127,641,838.00 135,102,616.98
Mar 69,477,441.00 95,853,732.95
Apr 64,169,760.00 231,331,579.67
May 20,704,104.00 73,073,410.72
Jun 21,676,186.00 56,156,875.57
Jul 17,934,237.00 50,398,945.20
Aug 10,036,211.00 30,597,021.68
Sep 22,577,925.00 97,197,006.18
Oct 47,361,034.00 420,856,582.45
Nov 30,431,461.00 241,631,714.13
Dec 11,453,946.00 96,112,535.71

2021 96,379,477.00 602,631,788.95
Jan 15,279,929.00 151,104,519.79
Feb 19,638,008.00 151,858,960.67
Mar 10,938,622.00 77,587,478.62
Apr 40,753,620.00 182,781,905.70
May 9,769,298.00 39,298,924.18

@Bluelight, I completely agree, it’s mad. A few points to add;

- Remember the initial couple of days after the DHSC contract was awarded? We closed at £4.70 the night before, gapped to £5.30 on the RNS, ran up intra day to £5.80 and then started to decline. The next day we hit £4.90 in the first hour, almost as if nothing had happened. It was only once momentum started to build and we broke out that new money started to pour in. Within a couple of weeks we sat at £10… yet initially there appeared to be nothing more than a shrug from the French…

- There is no clarity on past or future revenues, this has be a very rare situation in itself but it won’t last forever. I’ve never seen a special situation like it, it’s a dream setup if you believe in the company & haven’t gone all in or too heavy.

- I also think the dual exchange setup is a huge reason why we are valued at £250m. Buying on LSE doesn’t seem to have any impact on the price, even though most of the time volume is 50/50. If ODX or AVCT were listed on Euronext Paris and that drove the share price there is no chance they would be valued where they are…

I’m still very confident here as our cash balance, R&D & hiring evidence a thriving company with many opportunities ahead. Situations like this are where you have to trust your own research & judgement, the market can’t be irrational forever in the face of cold hard facts & cash generation.

Appreciate the heads up - my guess is that we’ll sit at the current level for the time being, any rise up to 380 will get shorted. Useful info on AMAT, you must have done well there! Anything else in the space you would recommend researching?

itsawrap, you've got yourself confused there. Uncertainty means the market usually assumes the worst, as it is currently doing with NCYT. That is what the comment 'markets don't like uncertainty' means. Some market participants do like uncertainty as it creates opportunity, however on the whole it puts potential buyers off.

@Mactrader, completely agree NCYT have been unfairly treated, and the current valuation vs other listed Covid diagnostic stocks is bonkers. My way of rationalising things is to re-read the H1 results update from 16th September, this confirmed we were expecting a minimum of €100m EBITDA for 2020, that alone would make the current valuation stupid. Add in the R&D, innovation & Q1 non DHSC revenues and it's a really crazy situation.

In my opinion, the dispute is almost certainly over the 'minimum value' of the contract and / or price per test, if it was regarding products or performance then that it would surely have had to be disclosed to the market today. The fact we insinuated that DHSC had enough promote to last the rest of 2021 suggests they overbought in Jan or Feb. My suspicion is that the Q4 dispute relates to over purchase of winterplex tests and the lack of a flu season. Time will tell as always.

Technically and fundamentally very strong at the 360p level, very intrigued to see where things go from here and happy to hold for the journey. We have a margin of safety that no other Covid stock can come close to.

Speaking of AZN, I don't know if it has already been pointed out that the lead author for the excellent paper published a couple of days ago (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.05.21256396v1) was ex Astra?

https://www.linkedin.com/in/daryl-borley-23a07565/?originalSubdomain=uk

Another very good recent hire...

This will get shorted to h*ll and back now, even after the 28% drop what justification is there for a £1.5b cap? Lossmaking at present with forecast pre tax profit of £88m by 2024... it's a mad valuation. 200p target price over the next 6 months IMO.

That link is pretty exciting...hard to believe we aren't involved given Monday's RNS + previous blogs etc.

In other news, does anyone else find it bizarre how illiquid Euronext is given our market cap?

https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPALNOV/

How can 7 small sells (largest one 6128 shares) drop the price by 14c?! That's about £8m off the market cap from less than €100k of trades... These prices are an absolute gift...