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In my eyes today’s collapse was inevitable as soon as they decided to omit Sir Stephen Holgate from the presentation. He is the main man here, certainly far superior to Tom Wilkinson, who I thought was absolutely shocking. I couldn’t believe it when he described Marsden passing a question to him as a ‘hospital pass’, talk about foot in mouth. Marsden was average at best & his refusal to disclose anything re. p3 certainly didn’t help matters.

Without further news I believe this double bottoms in the 80p region. No new institutional investors are going to buy pre P3 results & we know Polar are reducing , will Polygon hold?

Cheers Rae! Agree there is so much to look forward to here, it's such an interesting space & you can easily lose yourself for a few hours reading about what is going on. Of the current unlisted projects, Plasm, Acala & Moonbeam all hold huge potential, but there are also many other left field investments which could easily produce material gains.

I also find myself looking at the Crypto market cap in a completely different way now vs 2018. Back then there were no companies with a trillion dollar market cap, now we have 5 with many other such as Visa over half a trillion. To me this makes the whole Crypto space seem incredibly cheap at 2 trillion, given it's unique worldwide reach & immeasurable potential.

Yep the addition of quote and deal is really useful. Was getting 142 to sell and 141.44 to buy around 30 mins ago when I added. My plan is to add£1k of shares a month for the foreseeable future, should result in a decent average & nice holding in the long run. As others have said, 130m shares isn't a lot, especially as there appears no need to ever raise again given our staking yields & tiny overheads.

I do think the fact that many smaller holders can now sell without needing to call their broker will be having an impact. It is a hundred times easier to do & much cheaper. Anyone that bought pre Nov 2020 is sitting on a 1000% gain, so I think there will be a period of profit taking and a flat price when there is no news. Ultimately it will have zero impact on where KR1 sits in 5 years time!

If the Internet Computer succeeds in it's objectives & takes even a 5% market share from AWS then it'll be worth hundreds of billions. Likewise if ETH evolves into a trillion dollar platform, DOT will also be extremely valuable at maybe 30% of ETH's ultimate cap, then KR1 will be worth many times it's current price.

The next year will be fascinating. Will heavy institutional involvement signal the end of the huge swings in Crypo market caps? It is certainly hard to imagine another 80% fall right now with so much institutional money in the game - in stark contrast to 2018 when there was virtually none. Time will tell!

Agree Wilson, it is bizarre!

This has become a value diagnostics play, a number of factors are at play here IMO;

- Lack of certainty around forward projections, accentuated by the DHSC dispute
- Lack of certainty around 2020 revenues and resulting fundamentals, which will be cleared up in the next 2 months
- Lack of clarity around the long term strategy, with this very likely to be cleared up in the next couple of months
- EURONEXT listing being used by nefarious parties to depress the price, no doubt allowing their mates to pick up shares on the cheap

All you can think is that at this point in 2 months when the 2020 finals have been released, the market will see the cold hard facts & re-rate the share to a sensible market cap.

I also think that the split of UK / FR shareholders must be nearing 50/50 now going off volumes of shares traded... I suspect that by September it could be nearly 70/30, so a complete reversal from last year. When does the UK start driving the share price??

I think it's really useful to benchmark against other Covid stocks, for sanity if nothing else.

Take GDR for example which announced Indian test approval this morning... current £56m market cap with revenues of £0.4m with cash of £3.8m. So it has an EV of £52m.

NCYT : £320m market cap, likely £150m cash, Q1 revenues of £36m excluding anything related to DHSC. So we have an estimated EV of £170m.

Why are we only valued at just over 3x GDR when in Q1 we very likely generated cash that would be close to the market cap of GDR in Q1? It is absolute madness IMO.

Excellent link Forensic, that was a really interesting interview & always good to hear another party confirming what we already know & what was emphasised by FF. There is no doubt that this is the best value Litigation stock on the market and what makes it even better is the fact they've been in business since 1998 - they know what they're doing!

It's got nothing to do with the city and everything to with shorters on Euronext, the ODDO 'target price' told you everything you need to know about the nefarious goings on behind the scenes over there. It's all a side show in the short term, an intra day 'resolution of dispute' RNS would certainly get them running for the hills...

After ABDX provided a more detailed DHSC dispute update yesterday I'm not 95% sure ours is also about unpaid invoices. My workings suggest a receivables balance of between £50-70m at year end, assuming most of this relates to DHSC then any positive resolution will really boost the share price. I don't think they've got a leg to stand on tbh, especially given we have precedent from the bidstats dispute resolution found at the weekend + an industry peer with similar issues.

From the £406m Bidstats tender;

"If DHSC does not proceed with the purchase as soon as possible it is likely that this supply will be purchased by another country (due to high global demands);"

Good luck defending the logic of not paying outstanding invoices when you bought up supply to prevent it going to another country!

Of course I could be completely wrong...so no investment advice intended :)

Bladey, the only reason this was ever trading in the 60's was Premier Miton selling down a 15% stake that they took in the IPO. They had been selling since early 2019 and good old Gervais Williams seemed to think it a good idea to sell the remaining 8% at 56p in the second half of last year. An Aussie II (Collins St Asset Management) has since build a 9.7% stake, so after persistent II selling the waters look clear for now.

I also don't think most will bail for 10%, not when FF has spelt our clearly that he believes potential upside is at least 8x... As for sellers from lower down, again holders of such a niche share are well aware it's severely undervalued, so unless they have a better place to invest (hard right now) they aint selling. IMO new buyers will outweigh sellers for a significant period causing a run up to current fair value, which I believe is around £1.50.

I think 8 x can certainly happen, in fact if things go well it's more than feasible that it could do more than this. If you had bought BUR in early 2015 you would have paid £1.21 a share, by the summer of 2018 it had reached £20 a share. So it did 16x in 3.5 years, mainly just from opening progressively larger asset management funds and thereby increasing capital employed in cases. Once momentum picks up & it becomes trusted by PI's (and restarts dividends), these prices will feel like a dream.

No pump and dump in that video. An excellent fundamentals based analysis that hits the nail on the head. I don't think it's fair to say that the management haven't tried here, Patrick said in a recent results call that his ambition was to grow lit into a billion pound sterling company in the next 3-5 years. Anyone that heard that should have sat up and taken notice.

They also commissioned this research; https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/935008/litigation-capital-managementinitiation-of-coverage-935008.html/long which has a very similar thesis to the FF video but is far more prosaic in it's presentation. The FF video will attract a whole different generation of investor, however what I particularly liked was his emphasis on it being a true long term hold; if these buying heed this advice then we should all benefit.

I have a similar NAV Phoebus. It excludes any BTC holding but it's impossible to imagine they don't hold any. I also pro rate the LIDO & Stake Dao holdings as these vest over 23 months, so it's not accurate to add the whole amount to NAV today (others don't do this).

The bottom line is NAV is only part of the story. The annual staking yields are £15.1m as of this morning, the actual figure is likely to be a bit less as not all coins are staked, but it's still very material and will accrue at a very high gross margin. At a very conservative P/E of 7 it adds 50-70p to the NAV. So I think real fair value is over £2 right now.

And that's before Acala, Plasm & anything else that's lurking in there (Shiden Network) is taken into account.

Aww, did I upset a Justin the Clown fan?

They won't be able to cancel the first £12m tranche, or if they do it'll have a severe penalty. So a minimum of another £9m to be converted, which is a crazy amount for a £14m cap. The other huge error is not setting a minimum conversion price. I agree the blame lies with all inside parties here, it's truly one of the biggest f**k ups I've seen. I also question what they are doing releasing interviews that criticise Mint Capital. They make it even less likely that Mint will be open to amending conversion terms etc.

Vlad said in the TMS interview that they couldn't do a vanilla equity raise at this stage. I see this as so naïve. This is/was a very popular PI stock. The day before the CLN raise the share price was 8.5p. If they had announced a £5m raise on primary bid at 7p it would have been oversubscribed IMO. It certainly would have been at 4/5p! Instead, PI's have bought shares all the way down and the money has gone straight to Mint Capital instead.

He was completely against the idea of a CEO being brought in to run the commercial side whilst he focused on the science, I also see this as very naïve, the CLN facility is embarrassing and makes him look completely out of his depth. I really like the company and despise predators like Mint Capital, but Vlad has made a horrendous error here & with £9m still to convert it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better in my opinion.

Hadn't listed to anything from the 'weekend rampcast' for some time, who knows what will happen to POLX by 2027, but I agree with his sentiment, even if I think the guy is a joke. Good to see a break through 70p resistance, hopefully we'll continue to push higher - only just over 5 months until PDUFA now!

“Therefore likely current cash as at 30th April would be around €147m“

@ShaunP, you’re omitting the likely material receivables balance at the end of Q4. Below are my estimates;

We know H2 EBITDA was at least €161m, applying a tax rate of 20%, this would left profit after tax of $129m.

If you were to plug in that Payables, Receivables & Inventory remained the same from 30/06/20 until 31/12/20, the theoretical cash balance at year end should have been;

Cash at 30/06 - €19.6m
Cash generated in H2 : €129m
Less CAPEX (IT-IS) -£6.5m

Total= ~ €140m

As actual cash was €101m, we can therefore deduce that receivables most likely increased from the €28m balance given at 30/06, unsurprising given the increase in revenues. I find it unlikely that they increased their inventory beyond €15m, and Payables were only €16m, so can’t influence cash that much.

Adding Q1 21 + April and you’re likely looking at $170-200m.

Whichever it is, it’s an incredible cash position for a £300m market cap diagnostics company! Obviously all those balances ignore the DHSC dispute. We’ll find out for sure on 29th June...

I think AS has performed magic tricks to get the share price where it is, truly it is without parallel to create a stable ten bagger whilst missing the primary objective by a year...

From the 8th April 2020 RNS (when the share price opened at 30p)

“We are aiming to have developed Affimer reagents for a COVID-19 test by the end of May that can be transferred to Cytiva and potentially to other global diagnostic manufacturers to implement in a test strip".

Sound familiar?

Whatever happened to Cytiva? Their name wasn’t mentioned once in the full year results.

How anyone can have faith in anything forward looking is beyond me. In May 2020 an LFT would have been genuinely transformational, a year on it’s going to be one of many...

Also why launch in Europe first rather than the UK?

Bon voyage to all who are invested here!

I feel like the current share price is now an even bigger bargain than it was at the end of August last year. Back then everyone on this BB was in disbelief with a share price capped at £3 despite us reporting H1 revenues of €72m and having €19m of cash.

Bear in mind we now know that even without any contribution from DHSC, H2 was better than H1. We now also know that Q1 2021 was better than H1 2020! And yet the current share price sits only 40% higher than it did back then.

We are potentially looking at a diagnostics company with half its current market cap in cash, revenue run rates of £30m a quarter ex. DHSC and an incredible R&D team that appears to be on the verge of creating a one stop shop for every type of Covid testing product you could imagine.

It's simply incredible to compare our valuation to other AIM listed peers, IMO there is no way this continues post full year results & new product releases. I would LOVE IT if we beat AVCT to landing a commercial contract for an LFT antigen test.