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FCH having to work much harder to get their 280k shares today ;)

Interesting to compare today's announcement with that of Ilika's on 6th December, which said;

"This is a significant milestone as it means that the Goliath solid state pouch cell is now able to match the representative energy density of incumbent lithium-ion pouch cells, achieving an effective energy density of 250 Wh/kg and a capacity of 0.715 Ah."

Vs the RNS today;

"Gelion has achieved a high energy density milestone by fabricating a 395 Wh/kg lithium-sulfur 9.5 Ah pouch cell (commercial cell format). This result represents a c. 60% increase in the energy density (lower weight) compared with current lithium-ion batteries (approximately 250 Wh/kg)."

Ilika ran to £80m market cap on that news, GELN currently sits at £28m (and vs the £154m it IPO'd at a couple of years ago...)

Could easily run back to 50p here IMO.

The market makers take the p*ss on a daily basis here, why LSE permits uncrossing trades of 18 shares at 6.08p worth a grand total of £1.22 is anyone's guess. It's mickey mouse behaviour done to manipulate the closing price and could easily be fixed by put a minimum value on UT's of at least £10k.

But yes, we've just got to ignore the low volume nonsense. So far this calendar year we haven't had a trading day breach 1m volume (~£60k). Total volume year to date is 13.3m shares. Contrast this to the 3 days after the LCM funding was confirmed last August when 10.6m shares changed hands.

IMO we'll breach that in a day when quantum lands, and if a settlement was to appear then all bets are off!

Not sure it matters too much given the £5m market cap...

"There can be no certainty that a Transaction will be concluded; however, given the significant processing infrastructure in the region, the Company is confident of receiving multiple commercial offers."

Market makers scared stiff with a fake 17% spread, volume of the charts and easily the highest ever recorded. Bullish signs IMO.

Very different feel here today, shares rising on every buy... Does very much look like yesterday may have been the end of the seller. Fingers crossed we can now push higher, volume has been excellent.

It is, and even more bizarre to report them on the day they announce the uplisting! I'm hoping that the propsectus will give some detail on number of shares held by PDMR's / staff, as it's a bit of an unknown right now. On that note, it would have been nice if they had disclosed how many shares / unvested options the MD was still holding.

Couple of quarterly data points should land in the next week or two; shareholder movements & average cash balances / interest rates for Q1. Interesting to see where shares head in the next couple of weeks as the change approaches.

Resistance is a 2.49p, just needs a bit of buying volume to get through and it should move much higher IMO.

I think there is a good chance of that happening Koolhead. Resistance at £23 has been insurmountable since it was first tested in August 2021, when that is broken it should provide a major technical boost. Not having the quote driven, market maker controlled SETSqx system meddling with the price should provide a lot of positives, worth reiterating that it is currently almost impossible to buy share in Alpha if you are based outside the UK, you can place bids in the daily auctions but good luck getting filled for any size. All of that changes come next month and I suspect a lot of new liquidity will enter the market.

Ah, likely from 26 mins onwards on this video; https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=8fvuZ94J1jk

The CEO talks about an speculative model where the QP 'got a bit excited' and put a middle case NPV of $242m on the open pit alone. However, this is then qualified by stating that CAPEX would be prohibitive for a stand alone project, but if you gave 40% of the economic value to a concentrator to process the ore & use their facilities, then you would be left with an NPV of say $120m with only $10m needed for CAPEX.

I can well imagine someone like CAML being attracted by economics like this given they have the processing facilities...

Based on above & today's RNS, I struggle to see the CEO entertaining offers of less than 10% of the $120m NPV speculated above. It also wouldn't surprise me if he was to get substantially more than this.

Worth pointing out that CAML currently produce 13-14k tonnes of copper per annum, so 100kt+ of new inventory would move the needle for them.

Market makers trying really hard to shake shares out here - the usual LSE nonsense where 2 big buys are absorbed but a couple of moderate sells immediately have an impact. Time to hold until June and see where shares can get to.

@David6576, where did the CEO state 40-80 times undervalued?

Looking at the recent newsflow, this does look very interesting given it's trading at ~30% of early 2023 highs and there has only been 10% dilution since then. Need to do more research, but it appears a maiden JORC resource is due imminently? The $500k grant from BHP certainly looks very interesting & I like that the CEO owns >10% of the company and they have only raised once in the last 2 years. Today's news could be the catalyst needed for a re-rate, volume already 12x the 20 day average...

History here https://www.jpmorganchase.com/about/our-business/historical-prime-rate

Been above 7% since Nov22, average is 5.86% since March 21.

Yes definitely an interesting day, top work on the CEO engagement & confirming timelines.

It's at the date of expropriation as per the BIT, which is 15/03/21 when the mining laws were changed and MMDR2021 was introduced. Gold was ~$1750 back then. The flipside is that interest on any award accrues from that point. Usually they apply the US prime rate, which has sat at 8.5% since July 2023...

Good to see the Stocko coverage, PI ownership here is abnormally low (HL & II clients only own ~2% of shares) so any sustained PI buying should be a favourable wind.

Alpha currently 2 analysts providing coverage, Liberum and one other that I can't locate the name of. Liberum are valuing the treasury income of a PE of 3 with the cash flow discounted at 9%... Most 250 stocks around Alpha's level have 6-10 analysts covering them, so we should expect to see several 'initiation of coverage' stories in H2. Where they place their price targets is likely dependent on how much info Alpha want to provide them, if they can get hold of some 5 year forecasts then look out!

Kitrash, do yourself a favour and read some of the posts today before making such unnecessary comments. For one thing, the resource size in today's RNS is now 7.2moz vs 6.7moz in prior releases, so that is relevant and highly material new information for a £12m market cap.

I'm glad that the collective view agrees with my first impression at 7.30am, companies that go into these scenarios like a bull in a China shop aren't going to come off well. It needs to be managed in a highly professional manner, which is why you need experts like LCM driving things.

It's all moving in the right direction as far as I'm concerned and we are steadily building a solid community of shareholders who hold a similar opinion. The next key date is 2nd May for the Bhukia auction, between now and then there is a window for a surprise RNS which could be utterly transformational given the market cap. Impossible to say what the likelihood of a deal being reached is, but I'd say it's a fair bit higher than it was last autumn. If no deal is reached, then we'll have the NoA and claim quantum.

Nice to see the first £20 on the L2 order book spread, still trading at an EV/FCF yield of 16.3% & an EV/ Equity ratio of 2.8x vs the IPO to end 2022 average of 6.2x. A return to the historic average provides a share price target of £36.60 (and a much more sensible EV/FCF yield of 7.5%)...

Gallmat, great spot on the updated resource. This is all in conjunction with the auction, here is the gazette notification with quite a few details. Notably 124k tonnes of copper too

https://mines.rajasthan.gov.in/dmgcms/Static/files/Mineral%20Block%20Summary%20of%20Bhukia-Jagpura%20Block%20district%20Banswara.pdf

You have to read between the lines, if India had stonewalled Faskens/LCM/PAT then surely the NoA would have been filed. LCM have similar experience in the GreenX Metals case vs Poland and Poland blanked everything. LCM aren't amateurs.

I'd imagine that any discussions with India will be under strict NDA, so even disclosing that there had been a response could be difficult. That's why we have got the cryptic RNS this morning.

Hold for gold IMO.

Hmm. Doesn't this suggest that they are potentially in negotiations though? IMO it's all tied to the 2nd May auction date, clearly if they sell Bhukia to a 3rd party then any 'amicable' settlement is impossible.

Always remember that this process is being driven by Fasken's & LCM, LCM don't give a company $13.6m in funding and then let them interminably drag out the process.

Reading between the lines, a settlement prior to the auction date now looks possible.

If India have received strong interest in the pre auction process and are confident in a bid of >$1b then paying us a significant % of that would seem to make a lot of sense.

Either way, the end of the beginning is very close, imagine selling now and missing out a £1 share settlement agreement!

@sheepy, the UK ISA hasn't helped much? It hasn't even been launched yet! It's likely to start from April 2025.

Alpha has suffered far more from fund outflows than the average LSE share due to the fact it was the most popular UK small cap stock in many fund portfolios. The outflows have been none stop for the last 24 months and Alpha has gone from being a highly rated (for the UK) growth stock on a PE of ~40 at the end of 2021, to a value stock on a PE of ~9x today.

Obviously some of this derating can be explained by Alpha's exceptional prudence with it's treasury income stream. Had the same product been created by 99% of other listed companies then I suspect it would have been dressed up very differently in the accounts and used to pump the share price so that certain parties could benefit. Not so here, which is a great sign for long term holders.

As @koolhead and others have posted over the last few weeks, I think it's fairly obvious that Alpha should continue to thrive over the next 5-10 years. On healthy stock markets like the US, Australia & Scandinavia, it is eminently feasible for £800m small caps to grow into £5b+ mid caps. In the UK it is exceedingly rare, with the only FTSE 100 examples in the last 8-10 years being Diploma, JD Sports & Dechra, (now acquired) . There are more success stories in the 250, with Games Workshop, Softcat, Greggs, Computacenter making it to ~£3b. Behind them you have the likes of 4Imprint, Globaldata, Keywords, Yougov & Alpha who have developed from sub £500m to where they sit today.

Alpha graduating from AIM and leaving market maker derived liquidity behind is a major step in the right direction. They'll need to get more analysts on board and start to provide more colour on medium term revenue & strategy, which should allow shares to reach fair value, i.e. valuing the business on the financial metrics it will produce in 3+ years time...

I think the main risk now is a low ball takeover offer from a US PE outfit, taking advantage of the ridiculous FCF yield that has been created by Alpha's prudence. By low ball I mean £30-35, which judging by recent M&A activity on LSE would likely get a thumbs up from the mainly short sighted bunch of UK fund managers.

My view is that this can be a £100 share in the next few years, perhaps sooner if European equity markets properly recover. That would only see it reach the low end of the FTSE 100. They certainly tick all of the right boxes.