Member Info for ShearClass

Polkadot is number 13 on coinmarketcap, the only crypto's ahead of it which aren't stablecoins or the big 2 are #12 Chainlink, #11 Tron, #10 Avalanche, #9 Doge, #8Cardano, #6 XRP, #5 Solana, that order hasn't changed for a long time, with Solana the last new entrant to the top 10 about 2 years ago?

So I'd politely say you don't have a clue what you are talking about :)

Interesting bit on Polkadot. The last formally disclosed holding at 31/12/22 was 3,965,940 coins, up from 3.646,743 at 31/12/21, so they are HODLing all of staking yield they receive. At 31/01/24, their holding was valued at £23,688,678 based on a USD rate of 1.2679, so converted it was $30,034,875. At midnight on 31st Jan DOT was valued at $6.65, so their holding has swelled to 4,516,522 coins over the last 13 months, an extra 550k.

DOT hit $55 in the last Bull cycle and is currently threatening a major breakout at $8.76. Based on Twitter sentiment, it appears DOT is in a far stronger position now than it was back in 2021, so there would certainly be some justification for a return to it's ATH and beyond over the next few months.

At $55 KR1's holding would be worth $248m / £1.10 a share...

Here are some absolute corkers to get stuck into over the weekend;

Presentation deck from an Indo Gold A$10m pre IPO round in 2007, intended to precede a full AIM listing;

https://slideplayer.com/amp/4620845/

So many exciting details in the 44 page deck it's hard to know where to start!

There are also loads of articles from early 2007 on the Indo Gold discovery in Jagpura, I.e.

https://www.diamondworld.net/news/815

"Indo Gold will invest up to Rs.20 billion ($450 million) to develop a modern mine in Rajasthan. We will also invest in primary and secondary processing plants on site,� said Mike Higgins, the managing director of Indo Gold. �The deposits are world-class and we hope to start commercial production in four years,� he added. The annual Jagpura mine gold output is expected to be around 8 tonnes, according to the company."

8 tonnes = 292koz per annum, or ~$570m revenue in todays gold prices...

This could be absolutely massive - the LCM funding starts to make a lot more sense now.

"Ok, here goes my claim quantum effort - no investment advice / DYOR...

IMO there are three key factors that will be used to determine the market value of the investment at the time of the alleged expropriation in 2021; the in ground value of the gold, when the expropriation became public knowledge & the estimated size of the resource at that point in time.

I found this 2015 research report really useful to try and put some meat on the bones of some analysis;

http://www.cipherresearch.com/reports/150601_The-Real-Value-of-Gold-in-the-Ground.pdf

It studied 253 transactions involving gold companies between 1990-2013 and determined that the average price paid per in ground oz was $63. The average price of gold over the 24 year study period was $605/oz. So the average transaction paid 10.4% of the 'in ground' value. That may be skewed by the fact that for 16 of those 24 years gold averaged ~$350, but to me that seems like a sensible figure to use and leaves some upside.

The 1999 BIT states; "The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge"

Based on this link it looks like 15th March 2021 was when the bill was first introduced; https://prsindia.org/billtrack/the-mines-and-minerals-development-and-regulation-amendment-bill-2021

'Immediately before this on the 14th March 2021 gold traded at $1720, so using the 10.4% figure above, that gives us an in ground market value of ~$178.88/oz

Then we just have to apply that to the resource size. IMO there is no chance PAT are just going to claim for the 2008 JORC of 1.74Moz given how much that figure would have risen in the 13 years between then and the official expropriation. However, even if the arbitration panel decided to use that figure it would still come to a claim size of $311m, or some 20x the current market cap. That's the ultimate downside here IMO.

However, it's far more likely that PAT will utilise the 2 resource studies from the GSI, the 6.7Moz from 2014 or the 7.9Moz from 2021 that I posted earlier on.

6.7Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.2b

7.9Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.4b

That's the size of the prize... and before anyone says they could claim for 10Moz+, they would need some reasonable basis to do so, that is what makes the GSI work potentially so valuable."

Just over 6 months now since the LCM funding was finalised & now 2 months since the notice of dispute was filed. The next 6 months should see some very material newsflow. I'll repost a few items from the autumn as I think they are useful the bear in mind during the quiet times...

Yep, the CFO only owns 8196 shares! Honestly comical. Got paid £190k basic in FY22 + a £70k bonus. Do as they do, not as they say...

It's got nothing to do with shorters and all about the dangers of a herd mentality, a very questionable BOD and a stock exchange which appears to shrug it's shoulders at blatant insider trading.

Even at 50p the pre money market cap is £144m, you then have to add the £38.5m remaining on the convertible. If they get shareholder approval for the extra £6.2m + the £6.8m REX offer is filled then the post money market cap will be £210m. For a company with one 1 clinical P1a drug & minimal capital vs international competitors, that is a lot of money.

Just look at fellow AIM biotech REDX pharma, who have a substantial pipeline with several near term read out + several partners. Their market cap is £72m...

Another more fundamental issue is that 2020/21 saw a flood of early stage biotech's list on NASDAQ & the vast majority went bust. Institutional investors have prioritised funding rounds for companies with P3 assets, ideally ones which have FDA approval & are preparing for launch. AVCT are clearly nowhere near there yet. They need to get clear cut efficacy data showing statistically significant results vs SOC, including good old P values, then raise further capital.

Certainly, that's what the board appear to be signalling with their combined £65k investment? Smith + the CFO, Chairman took home £789k in FY22. I'd suspect Coughlin is on £200k+ Smith's basic salary was £286k...

I still contend that this is ultimately a lifestyle company with some decent scientific assets which has been heavily pumped to a mostly unaware audience. Sadly it's what the UK small cap biotech space has evolved into. If you want good biotechs, research Sweden, Denmark, Australia + the US. They are out there in abundance & once you do the research you'll spot the rancid apples a mile off.

It's DOT, ATOM, ICP & Lido which will re-rate this towards £5. Alts will rally in the next few months, the only questions appears to be how high they go...

Sounds like you need to look on NASDAQ, anything with those characteristics wouldn't have been on AIM since 2006...

WTF is going on here? Tipped in the Sunday Times, results on Monday which said they had to rely on customer payments to continue operating, placing on Tuesday, $20m contract win Wednesday. 46p > 72p ?

An utter farce IMO. Shares shouldn't have been trading for any of this period, and there is no way they should be placing for £1m 2 trading hours before a material contract win is announced. The FCA need to sort out AIM immediately, these companies clearly think they can do what they want.

Note the RNS released on 19/06/23 regarding placing speculation at that time, quashing any rumours and emphasising the newsflow to come. I'm very surprised that a similar RNS wasn't issue this morning if nothing was going on. Looking at the order book into close yesterday I was sure a placing was pending but nothing yet... If you want an AIM share price to fall further then create a news vacuum, people will usually quite rightly assume the worst.

The one other thought I had was maybe II's are playing hard ball due to the £38m convertible? It's a large amount of money to clear, yet I suspect it was the only way to access such a sum in October 22.

Interesting day to come that's for sure...

It's a good deal for those 'lucky' individuals that bought in yesterday, triggering a 16% rise. Blocks of 10k shares being bought all day - thought of buying in but didn't pull the trigger.

I think the market reaction can be explained by looking at the last segmental breakdown in the half year results;

TIC contributed £13.5m of the £33m adjusted operating profit for H124 and had £5.8m in dep'n and amort. So just £7.7m of operating profit. GRC was £22.9m adjusted operating profit, £19m operating profit after dep'n & amort.

So GRC has been sold for just 11x operating profit and 9x adjusted operating profit.

They've chucked in what appears to be a customised metric "16.2x proforma adjusted cash EBITDA" to make it look good value, I've never heard of anyone using adjusted cash EBITDA...

So if GRC has gone for 11x operating profit and TIC had £7.8m operating profit in H1, I think the max anyone could value TIC at is £170m. If we value it at 9x H1 adjusted operating profit of £13.5m then we get £243m. However, both valuations ignore £6.8m of head office costs...

Bottom line, post the £150m shareholder return I don't see how a business with ~£9m of operating profit can be valued at much more than £200m?

It looks looks like a strong buy until you read note 13 re. legal proceedings. It'll never trade at a decent multiple given the seemingly endless stream of litigation... Nevertheless, a nice trade this morning and good luck to those who hold for the US listing...

@Servalan, which numbers are moving in the right direction?!

Prescriptions of 77k vs a 28th September forecast of 100-130k ?

Cash was $13.5m at 30/06/23, they then added $20m secured debt + $6.1m equity placing in September, at at 31/12/23 cash was back at $13.9m... so cash burn was $26m for H223?

Based on that their current cash balance won't get them past the end of Q2, if they are lucky.

Q4 revenue was still pathetic - 2024 forecasts were for $62m, they aren't anywhere near this run rate (which was still projected to result in a ~$10m loss)

So which numbers are you referring to?

I was amazed this opened at 5p, in reality it should have been 2.5p at max. Viatris will end up with the drug IMO. Administration beckons as nobody will believe what they forecast now, which equals the end of the road for a loss making AIM company with $20m secured debt.

@reduk, yep it's outrageous. I've never seen a projection methodology blamed for the near 20% overstatement of ACTUAL numbers.

Note that it's not just prescriptions, but revenue;

Prior H1 accrufer revenue = $3.7m

Q3 reported = $4.1m

Q4 today = $4.3m

Total = $12.1m

This is $500k higher than the annual figure of $11.6m they've reported today...

So the prior revenue figures were based on estimates? What?!

"Onshore salt cavern opportunities

Key opportunities for investors include gas trading arbitrage, long-duration storage and interseasonal hydrogen storage.

Gas trading arbitrage

The primary role of gas storage sites is to store gas for periods of high prices (that is, trading gas by buying at low prices and exporting at high prices). This was why EDF'S Cheshire sites were developed in the first place, and the gas markets are now much spikier than they were.

Long-duration storage

EDF looked at the potential for compressed air storage at both Hole House and Hill Top Farm some years ago, and long-duration energy storage (LDES) is now very much on the net zero-inspired agenda.

It is regarded as one of the key mitigants between high output/low demand and low output/high demand periods, brought about by an increasingly intermittent renewable-backed energy system.

The economics for EDF's gas storage sites did not stack up a few years ago, but last year they received funding from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DEZNZ) and the government is very motivated to explore LDES as a proof-of-concept.

Interseasonal hydrogen storage

Interseasonal hydrogen storage is the real sweet spot for a future decarbonised energy system, which needs hydrogen to play a role in storing energy (hydrogen is an energy vector) between seasons: capturing hydrogen produced during high-wind peaks for use in low renewable/high demand periods. This is where hydrogen is intended to displace the role currently played by gas peaking plants, and open and closed-cycle gas turbines."

Very interesting read below from a couple of months back;

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=82ecc181-7225-4757-8245-5902a5090682

"The operation of gas storage sites, particularly in salt caverns, is less simple than might first appear. However, the opportunities introduced by a net zero energy system are significant, and gas storage in salt caverns is one of the few credible solutions to both LDES and the interseasonal storage of hydrogen, making it the perfect complement to a renewables-dominated energy system."

Jeez, people are going to get nailed on this.

For a start, each NASDAQ share = 2x each AIM shares.

So $1.25 = $0.62.5c / 49p. NOT 100P.

They have no cash & were on the verge of going bust;

"Net loss was $10.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2023, compared to a net loss of $12.0 million for the three months ended September 30, 2022.

Cash and cash equivalents totaled $13.9 million as of September 30, 2023."

I suspect they will be selling shares via their NASDAQ ATM facility to pay the bills. The company certainly needs to release an RNS to control this ridiculous price movement though.

Bounced back off 'technical' resistance at £17.80, that's the 5th time since November that shares have failed at that level (not helped by market makers setting their usual false spread of course). Ultimately it just means that Alpha should be able to buy back more shares with their initial £20m allocation, so short term I'm happy for it to remain range bound, although don't expect us to get any more gifts in the £15 range...

I do find the the UK market incredibly depressing though, having spent time looking at Australia, Scandinavia & of course the US, I find it hard to believe that Alpha would be capitalised at