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Utterly comical that any listed entity can drop in value due to a grand total of £2276 worth of sells. Still, we tick closer to the day when all will be revealed - should be quite spectacular when it arrives...

29/06 RNS for YE 31/03, borrowings £191m

"At the time of approving the financial statements the Group had an undrawn committed borrowing facility of £22.3m and to the extent to which further acquisitions require more than the committed facility they will only be done so following agreement of the lenders to the use of the accordion facility or once additional funding has been obtained."

Todays' RNS states borrowings at 30/09 were £229m

So presumably they've used £16m of the accordion facility?

As predicted a year ago, far too much debt & an addiction to acquisitions makes this a very unattractive company. In reality, if they stopped their buying spree I suspect top line revenue would fall & it would de-rate even further...

The below is exactly as I expected & a veiled profit warning;

"Adjusted EPS will continue to be impacted by an increase in borrowing costs associated with higher base rates and an increase in the UK corporation tax rate from 19% to 25%."

Fair value maybe 6-8x forecast PE of 44p, given the level of debt... so target price of £3?

Aha, you've been consistent negative here for months / years. You don't like them raising £50m above the 200DMA? I'd say it's very bullish & underpins the share price going forwards. As for the forward partners deal, paying less than 50% NAV in an all share deal is hardly high risk - if they had raised capital to buy forward then I'd be more inclined to agree.

Highly likely this will re-rate on further positive economic data & a calming of the macro environment. I suspect this time next year shares will trade at between £4-5.

Yep, the Forward deal is paid for with Grow shares & the £50m fundraise is to invest in the combined portfolios. They aren't raising to make the acquisition.

Https://www.professionalpensions.com/news/4148678/jeremy-hunt-unveil-pot-life-pension-reforms

Oh the face of it not great news for PBEE, as it negates their raison d'etre... whether it'll happen or not is another question entirely, as it will require some joined up thinking for a change. Either way, it likely creates a sentiment headwind here for the foreseeable.

Yep, they held 3.1m at 17/10 & the total of the 6 paired transactions on Wednesday was just shy of 6m, so 3m bought, 3m sold. I suspect their remaining ~150k shares had been sold on the open market between 17/10 and 15/11, resulting in the continued suppression of the share price at £4.50.

Re. Results being the catalyst, I agree - same thing has happened with Yougov - ABRDN tr-1 on 16/10 showing a 3% reduction in holdings, shares have since bounced more than 50%.

Yep, both shares battered by selling II's with no funds prepared to take a medium term view in order to bid them back up to anywhere near fair value. Market makers make the situation worse by dropping shares on a small amount of selling & then doing their utmost to hold them back when they are rising (i.e. why has it been impossible to buy 500 shares for the last 10 mins?)

Shares changed hands for £8.60 this time last year, £16 in Nov 21, £10 in Nov 20 & £6 in Nov 2019.

In 2019 turnover was £84m with post tax profit of £11.7m, vs forecast figures of £177m & £23.1m for FY23

Sub £5 with an improving economic environment makes zero sense.

Hmmmm.

Hotel Chocolat acquired by Mars for £3.75 vs £1.39 close last night. That suggests to me that TUNE could very well be in play, given the ridiculous discount to its historic valuation.

Also agree on trading conditions improving, an ahead of expectations update would be no surprise given the timing of product launches etc.

Ps. The Dec 2017 volume was due to a secondary placing, not on market trading.

HorisM, you don't have post some rubbish.

1. There has never been a day with >6m shares traded, on 1/12/17 only 13k shares changed hands...

2. The pairs of trades are buys and sells, one institutional investor buying from another. One sold 2.9m and the other bought 2.9m. It's a big event and it'll be interesting to see who the buyer is, but they've only got 5.5% of the company.

3. I presume you've flat out made up the rumour on Harman / Francisco Partners & Symphony? Posting misleading / false info is against LSE rules for obvious reasons. If not, what's your source?

Action into close suggests someone is building a stake - 2 x 100k buys at £2.57 + another 175k on the order book in the closing auction which didn't get filled. Further down there is another 100k at £2.50. Against all of this is a 150k sell order at £2.60 which sat there most of the day.

Interesting to see where this moves to over the next 18 months should inflation continue to fall & rates are dropped back from restrictive territory to normal (3-4%).

Ps. As per my companies house digging, GROW own ~13% of Evonetix.

Small fry compared to the next set of buy & sell pairs that showed up... £22m in total plus the £4m from this morning!

I doubt it re. unofficial talks, my guess is India won't take it seriously until the arbitration claim is formally lodged & the tribunal is set up. A very interesting 6 months coming here, that's for sure.

Currently shares are being moved up and down on tiny volumes relative to late August / September. Yesterday saw a grand total of £70k traded, today sits at £38k.

There are lots of milestones on the doorstep now;

1. Notice of dispute formally delivered to India in Q4, so in the next 7 weeks

2. Potential positive correspondence or settlement post this dispute delivery

3. If no settlement offer or positive discussion talks are initiated, then the arbitration claim will be filed in Q1, this will almost certainly be dictated by LCM / Fasken

4. "Under the Treaty, an arbitral tribunal is to be constituted within two months of delivery of the notice of arbitration."

5. The big one, which we don't know the timing of, is the disclosure of claim quantum

What are sensible thoughts on when this will land? I'm unsure of how they can notify India of a dispute but not disclose how much the dispute is for? As no negotiation could take place on a settlement if the claim number wasn't known...

Crazy to sell right now IMO.

Simply wall street is 100% based on forecast numbers in the market, if there are no forward forecasts, which there aren't for MSI, then it will be based on prior year numbers & assume no growth. Clearly that isn't the case here.

Ps. on the succession issue, I'd say the 100k phantom share options granted to the chairman last week, valid for 10 years & which vest only on a change of company control, confirm exactly what their plans are. The big questions are when will it be sold & how much will they get?

Which brokers are saying MSI are overvalued JL? They have zero broker coverage as far as I can see.

However, if they did have coverage then price targets would have been rocketing;

They've sold £76.4m of their mobile gun system over the last 12 months (that we know of), given they didn't RNS the £54m deal notified in the June final results it's entirely possible they've sold me. This compares to FY23 defence revenues which totalled £32m...

On top of that there are the recent US Navy contracts, of which $39m is for delivery over the next 18 months + a $50m 5 year support contract which commenced at the start of September.

You then had last weeks news of a £50m 5 year naval gun maintenance contract with the Royal Navy...

So going forwards, it looks like there will be ~£20m PA of maintenance revenue out to 2028/29 + >£100m of VSHORAD & US Navy revenue to recognise over the next 18 months.

Then you have the largest contract of all, for the provision of the naval weapon system to the US Navy, which is still pending announcement;

"Regarding the ongoing opportunities in the US, we cautiously believe that we are well placed to be awarded a contract to supply our MSI-DS 30mm naval weapon system to the US Navy. We have been invited to visit the US to continue commercial negotiations."

However, given they've received the maintenance contract, the contract for the supply of gun mounts & optical sights, it appears very likely that this will be awarded imminently.

It all comes down to what operating margin they can drive on defence - historic figures point to 10%, however that was likely operating at sub scale.

Either way, valuing a company undergoing transformational scale up on historic PE's is pointless. Far better to wait for the interims in December and go from there.

I suspect it's due to a multitude of factors;

- Sublingual revenues seeing a rapid decline YoY, offsetting Sublocade increases

- Below expectations performance of Perseris

- No detail on Opvee launch / revenue expectations

- Market digesting the balance sheet impact of the massive final settlement & not liking what it sees

Ultimately, operating profit is running at ~$225m PA, what we don't know is how much of that is related to sublingual. If revenues continue to decline there as expected, then without a major Opvee launch the top line growth will stall.

Essentially things are in the balance, however sentiment has turned negative due to the above factors. Downtrend support sits at ~£11.80 as far as I see it.

You can get 5k shares at 7p, NT for anything more

I suspect the market makers are scared sh*tless of what could happen here if any momentum builds up

Absolutely nothing available to buy - what a surprise...

"The Company is aware that on 30 September 2023 the Times of India reported that, based on information from the Geological Survey of India and the Additional Chief Secretary of Mines, the gold deposit at the site could be worth over US$1 billion. This valuation has not been independently verified by the Company. Accordingly, while at this stage the Company is not able to make any comments in relation to the potential quantum of damages that IGPL will claim from India, the Company will in due course, announce the actual quantum of damages that IGPL will claim from India when available. This quantum may differ from that reported by third parties, including but not limited to, the Times of India."

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/jaipur/state-plans-to-auction-gold-mines/amp_articleshow/104057087.cms

10000 crore = £977m / $1.2b