Member Info for ShearClass

Ouch... BIG has missed out on the very large MOJ contract mooted by Zeus;

"A potential large contract, such as the UK MoJ project for electronic and alcohol monitoring units, could add about 20k revenue generating electronic monitoring (EM) units to Big Technologies’ order book. This contract would represent by far the company’s largest contract to date, but shipments would only begin to impact revenues in 2024."

Serco RNS;

"The justice sector is a core area of expertise for our business, and we are pleased the UK Ministry of Justice (MOJ) has selected Serco, following a competitive process, to deliver electronic monitoring services in England and Wales. The contract starts in May 2024 and has an estimated value of around £200m over the initial six-year term, and £275m if options to extend the contract for a further two one-year terms are exercised. The mobilisation and transformation of the new contract will begin in November 2023 with most of these costs being charged to profit as they are incurred."

GeordieShores, you are thick as mince. Raising at a premium is never, ever going to be a negative...

I'm still here Kitrash, there is no point spending energy here every day battling trolls when there is nothing happening right now...I also got sick of posting info only for dozens of new threads to be created which effectively hide it from view.

I certainly expected a full update in October but it is what it is, AGM at the end of the month, so I presume an update on 2024 timelines will arrive then? Either way, we know the huge value of Bhukia & how thorough LCM's DD process is, at some point the big RNS will arrive stating the claim value & then there will be a rush for shares.

I suspect old Horis is a hired gun working on behalf of one of the II's that is desperately trying to offload shares here. It makes absolutely no sense to be ramping this so hard otherwise. First half cash outflows were >£30m and that was when they were 'profitable', I can't wait to see the state of the balance sheet post the H2 sh*tshow.

There goes the overhang...

@adamj2021, exactly - £1.2b of customer deposits vs £850m of cash...

"The balance sheet largely comprises interest-bearing current and term customer deposits to support payment flows, which the Group holds in high quality liquid assets in order to meet liquidity requirements."

"The Group takes customer funds earmarked for other needs as customer deposits and makes short-term investment in the money market to generate net interest income."

"The total deposits from customers were from corporate customers. Customer accounts are accounts that customers hold with the Group. The Group is transaction led and does not borrow to finance lending. A substantial proportion of customer accounts are current accounts that, although repayable on demand, have historically formed a stable deposit base."

This is a bank & they have regulatory requirements to meet, the market quite rightly eliminates any bank that exhibits trust issues

At ~8 mins of the interim presentation the CFO confirms that Q3 trading is in line with expectations - that was on 13th September! Yet 6 weeks later they've missed by a mile. Look at the CFO's body language...

https://vimeo.com/863951606

Utterly outrageous.

Everyone involved in this IPO, and I mean EVERYONE, should be hauled in front of parliament and asked to explain exactly what happened here. If the PM has any intention of improving LSE and attracting capital inflows then listings like this need to be eliminated. If trading conditions deteriorated significantly during Q2 then it shouldn't have been able to price at £3.35 on 6th July.

The only winners here are city spivs who ran the book & shorters who knew what was going on. There should be a criminal investigation IMO, there certainly would be if it had listed on either NASDAQ or NYSE.

Something quite nostalgic about that RNS, absolutely classic AIM and something that hasn't been seen for a long while. Who are SEC Capital? Do they even exist? Who cares - well done all holders and nice to see people making money for a change...

Cheers Acuere, yes California is key right now. Once that is up and running they can focus on the opportunities elsewhere.

Great to see that BGF are aggressively buying up shares & have near doubled the £3m they took in the July placing. Cannacord have been indiscriminately selling down holdings across LSE shares, presumably due to fund outflows. That overhang is likely to be what caused the pull back from the £3.80 highs - fingers crossed we can exceed those levels before year end & smash them out of the park in 2024.

Further good news from Penn a couple of days ago. Interestingly, it's directly in line with the thoughts of the Brain Capital panel video which I shared earlier re. aligning all stakeholders behind a single unified vision;

https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-shapiro-signs-executive-order-streamlining-mental-health-substance-use-disorder-efforts-to-improve-accessibility-across-the-commonwealth/#:~:text=The%20Executive%20Order%20creates%20a,health%20and%20addiction%20care%20services

“Across Pennsylvania, I’ve heard from students, parents, providers, and so many others who have told me about the growing challenges of dealing with mental health challenges and substance use disorder, which are so often intertwined,” said Governor Josh Shapiro. “It’s time we deliver the help so many Pennsylvanians are asking for. This Behavioral Health Council will be led by a seasoned expert, Dr. Christina Finello, who will spearhead the development of an action plan that will transform the health care delivery system to meet the real needs of Pennsylvanians. For the first time, our Commonwealth will have a senior leader in the Governor’s Office whose full-time job is to focus on this specific work and reach across all levels of government to improve our mental health and recovery services.”

"The Council builds on the Governor’s commitment to improving mental health services following major wins in the 2023-2024 budget that increased investments to restore full funding to county mental health programs and created a line item to invest $100 million to fund mental health resources in our schools."

The $100m line item is almost certainly where Kooth's contract will come from, however there is no telling exactly when it will arrive. Sometime in Q4 though, as per the 2nd October investor meet company...

"Ok, here goes my claim quantum effort - no investment advice / DYOR...

IMO there are three key factors that will be used to determine the market value of the investment at the time of the alleged expropriation in 2021; the in ground value of the gold, when the expropriation became public knowledge & the estimated size of the resource at that point in time.

I found this 2015 research report really useful to try and put some meat on the bones of some analysis;

http://www.cipherresearch.com/reports/150601_The-Real-Value-of-Gold-in-the-Ground.pdf

It studied 253 transactions involving gold companies between 1990-2013 and determined that the average price paid per in ground oz was $63. The average price of gold over the 24 year study period was $605/oz. So the average transaction paid 10.4% of the 'in ground' value. That may be skewed by the fact that for 16 of those 24 years gold averaged ~$350, but to me that seems like a sensible figure to use and leaves some upside.

The 1999 BIT states; "The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge"

Based on this link it looks like 15th March 2021 was when the bill was first introduced; https://prsindia.org/billtrack/the-mines-and-minerals-development-and-regulation-amendment-bill-2021

'Immediately before this on the 14th March 2021 gold traded at $1720, so using the 10.4% figure above, that gives us an in ground market value of ~$178.88/oz

Then we just have to apply that to the resource size. IMO there is no chance PAT are just going to claim for the 2008 JORC of 1.74Moz given how much that figure would have risen in the 13 years between then and the official expropriation. However, even if the arbitration panel decided to use that figure it would still come to a claim size of $311m, or some 20x the current market cap. That's the ultimate downside here IMO.

However, it's far more likely that PAT will utilise the 2 resource studies from the GSI, the 6.7Moz from 2014 or the 7.9Moz from 2021 that I posted earlier on.

6.7Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.2b

7.9Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.4b

That's the size of the prize... and before anyone says they could claim for 10Moz+, they would need some reasonable basis to do so, that is what makes the GSI work potentially so valuable."

This is a must watch for anyone interested in Kooth - part of a series of videos uploaded from the 19th September UN Brain Capital conference in New York;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68jODbvL878

The whole video is worth watching, but particular call outs are;

At 25 mins it's disclosed that there is a desire to launch Kooth as a state wide service in Kansas & Illinois. Excellent discussion on the current situation & a clear passion to integrate digital services ASAP.

The speaker posted further on this yesterday on Linkedin; https://www.linkedin.com/posts/janesbrown_such-a-pleasure-to-offer-novel-digital-solutions-activity-7118186301169831936-IKVg?

"Such a pleasure to offer novel digital solutions that have the potential to impact so many Kansan kiddos suffering mental health crisis as early as possible. Great partnership from Erin Davis and the entire Kooth Digital Health (North America) team to develop a state wide vision for early mental health needs identification."

Also from 9 mins Aaron Kaufer, Pennsylvania state rep, talks about how it took years to get to the point of signing the Kooth pilot last October & rather than wait to sort out medicare & insurance, they took money from the state general fund to fast track availability so it could be accessed immediately. I can't imagine there will be long to wait for an expanded Penn contract, particularly given that the pilot usage levels were significantly above expectations at 1 in 10 of the available population.

Underpinning a lot of the panel discussion is the California scheme & how it's a shining example of what needs to happen elsewhere. Kooth really do appear to be a cornerstone of mental health revolution which has bipartisan support.

If we weren't in the midst of a raging bear market on AIM then I reckon shares would be trading at >£5, the progress they have made since the 2020 IPO @£2 is huge.

Bouncing this back up again - think I'll repost on a daily basis until we get an RNS to avoid it being covered by the CONSTANT stream of new threads that get opened on this BB ;)

"Ok, here goes my claim quantum effort - no investment advice / DYOR...

IMO there are three key factors that will be used to determine the market value of the investment at the time of the alleged expropriation in 2021; the in ground value of the gold, when the expropriation became public knowledge & the estimated size of the resource at that point in time.

I found this 2015 research report really useful to try and put some meat on the bones of some analysis;

http://www.cipherresearch.com/reports/150601_The-Real-Value-of-Gold-in-the-Ground.pdf

It studied 253 transactions involving gold companies between 1990-2013 and determined that the average price paid per in ground oz was $63. The average price of gold over the 24 year study period was $605/oz. So the average transaction paid 10.4% of the 'in ground' value. That may be skewed by the fact that for 16 of those 24 years gold averaged ~$350, but to me that seems like a sensible figure to use and leaves some upside.

The 1999 BIT states; "The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge"

Based on this link it looks like 15th March 2021 was when the bill was first introduced; https://prsindia.org/billtrack/the-mines-and-minerals-development-and-regulation-amendment-bill-2021

'Immediately before this on the 14th March 2021 gold traded at $1720, so using the 10.4% figure above, that gives us an in ground market value of ~$178.88/oz

Then we just have to apply that to the resource size. IMO there is no chance PAT are just going to claim for the 2008 JORC of 1.74Moz given how much that figure would have risen in the 13 years between then and the official expropriation. However, even if the arbitration panel decided to use that figure it would still come to a claim size of $311m, or some 20x the current market cap. That's the ultimate downside here IMO.

However, it's far more likely that PAT will utilise the 2 resource studies from the GSI, the 6.7Moz from 2014 or the 7.9Moz from 2021 that I posted earlier on.

6.7Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.2b

7.9Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.4b

That's the size of the prize... and before anyone says they could claim for 10Moz+, they would need some reasonable basis to do so, that is what makes the GSI work potentially so valuable."

Also great to see BGF up the stake that they took in the July funding round;

https://www.bgf.co.uk/bgf-backs-kooth-to-support-us-expansion/

They took £3m @ £3 each, so have added a further 175k shares since.

Simon Blackaby, investor at BGF, commented: “Kooth is a great example of a high-quality business with a proven business model, a significant recurring revenue stream, and now, international growth potential. We have a strong conviction in the management team’s ability to execute the step-change in the scale of the business, following the recent US contract win, which is a clear demonstration of Kooth’s credibility and expertise in its field. This is an exceptional achievement for a UK-based business which has purpose at its core, and we’re delighted to be playing a part in its continued expansion.”

Paul Stevens, head of quoted investments at BGF, said: “Kooth is a great example of the type of publicly-listed SME that we are keen to support—one that has delivered strong progress over recent years and is now looking to deliver significant scale, both in the UK and internationally.”

Just under the £3 placing price looks like a very nice place to add, especially in light of the CEO buying £20k worth of shares at £2.96 last Thursday. I'd suggest this means the Beta test which launched on 31st August in 2 Cali counties has got off to a positive start...

The most recent CYBHI quarterly update from 14th September contained quite a bit of detail from Rachel Mackie on the app & rollout from 39 mins on; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0Bydlc3FpQ

I also note that LinkedIn headcount for Kooth North America has exploded from ~15 in mid July up to 58 as of today, with dozens of posts from new joiners expressing their huge excitement at joining the journey. All very positive.

Many more roles are still being recruited for; https://www.paycomonline.net/v4/ats/web.php/jobs?clientkey=CA518AACD06747D958404929D26FA686#

Overall, it appears execution risk has decreased quite considerably since the contract award in July. The product appears to be 90% of the way there & the hiring process is going well.

If they can win another couple of states then I think its very feasible to see this becoming a mid cap (>£300m valuation) in the medium term.

"Are these sells being hoovered up by a big buyer in the background?"

Erm, no - otherwise the price wouldn't be falling!

Haha, the market? You mean one individual who sold 85k shares at 7p? 8% down on £9k of trading volume tells you nothing other than the market makers have zero intention of holding any stock & that we have disappeared below the AIM waterline again.

The process of finalising the arbitration timetable with LCM & Fasken must close to completion now, as soon as we have confirmation of that process things will be a lot clearer. However, the disclosure of the quantum of the claim will be the ultimate driver of value here over the next 12 months. That day is fast approaching and will be transformational in attracting new shareholders & increasing the market cap.

The rise this morning is due to a tip sheet pushing FDEV based on bullish broker forecasts for Age of Sigmar... they are taking sales figures from Total War; Warhammer III RTS and trying to claim FDEV's version can replicate it's success. That game was published by Sega & from a quick youtube it unsurprisingly looks leagues ahead of Age of Sigmar, but is at the same price point. Appears naive at best to expect similar commercial performance to a AAA studio with almost unlimited resources.

Therein lies the crux of the problem. FDEV are going head to head with AAA publishers and hoping to come off best - the odds are hugely stacked against them. Age of Sigmar will need to be sensational to generate positive initial reviews for a $60 price tag, if it's got bugs or a lack of depth then the backlash will be ferocious.

My take on any potential capital raise is that it'll be contingent on a poor performance from Age of Sigmar, if that game performs then they won't need to do one but if it bombs then they'll need significant capital asap to avoid bigger problems.

Zero point punting at these levels, I'll wait for the initial reception of Age of Sigmar and make a decision from there - I'd love to see it do well, but based on recent releases & the aforementioned competition, I have serious doubts.

Bit of an OTT reaction Kitrash? Grades are in line with what was flagged in July?

"The Kalaka Project has large scale, low-grade gold mineralisation potential. Historical drilling consistently reported significant gold intercepts including Diamond hole K1AD002 (191.8m @ 0.52 g/t Au) and Reverse Circulation drill hole K1ARC028 (117m @ 0.59 g/t Au including 41m @ 1.02 g/t Au) at the K1A prospect. "

I've certainly seen much worse drill results - i.e. GGP's Scallywag which reported 1m intervals of