Member Info for ShearClass

The market makers are fishing for stock here with both bid and ask so close together - Winterfloods just raised the bid to 10.5 so it will now appear that all trades are sells - a classic AIM trick of manipulating weak hands into selling. We're on the cusp of breaking significant resistance at 11.5p, from there it could run significantly higher on low volume...

"i can't imagine mb, based on present value of future cash flows, which the arbitration look at as mentioned in the ****stan case here, lodging a claim of anything less than $1.5 billion."

I'd have to agree with that prof, just wanted to check whether you'd seen this pres before?

https://slideplayer.com/amp/4620845/

Always tricky to know what's been discussed before when joining an existing board

The confirmation that they had plans for 300k ozpa production way back in 2007 was a critical new piece of info for me. We know that any compensation will be based on the deemed market value of project at the point it was expropriated - i.e. early 2021 when the new mining regulations were signed into law. A 300koz pa open pit resource with mine life of >20 years in a stable jurisdiction with low AISC surely has to be worth >$1.5b.

It's a bigger resource than GGP's Havieron and at a much shallower depth, that was formally valued at $1.2b in mid 2022 and looks to have a current production throughput target of 3mtpa @3g/t - so ~100kpa.

With such a large and accessible resource I see no reason why Bhukia production couldn't have grown beyond 300koz PA either?

Have added to my pot this morning.

Here are some absolute corkers to get stuck into over the weekend;

Presentation deck from an Indo Gold A$10m pre IPO round in 2007, intended to precede a full AIM listing;

https://slideplayer.com/amp/4620845/

So many exciting details in the 44 page deck it's hard to know where to start!

There are also loads of articles from early 2007 on the Indo Gold discovery in Jagpura, I.e.

https://www.diamondworld.net/news/815

"Indo Gold will invest up to Rs.20 billion ($450 million) to develop a modern mine in Rajasthan. We will also invest in primary and secondary processing plants on site,� said Mike Higgins, the managing director of Indo Gold. �The deposits are world-class and we hope to start commercial production in four years,� he added. The annual Jagpura mine gold output is expected to be around 8 tonnes, according to the company."

8 tonnes = 292koz per annum, or ~$570m revenue in todays gold prices...

This could be absolutely massive - the LCM funding starts to make a lot more sense now.

Nice to see things a bit calmer and the share price floating upwards. News will land soon enough, just need to tuck these away and wait patiently.

Temuchin. This share is traded on SETS so the market makers are not driving the price, it's driven by demand on the order book. Swedbank RNS'd a 1% reduction in their holding last month & I also think there has been some inevitable shorting going on. I said 1x sales would be interesting, well now it's almost here and it's still very hard to justify buying after yesterday's RNS.

From 2013 IPO until November 2016 this traded in the £1-2 range, it appears to be heading back there.

Yep, a classic walkdown to try and shake some shares loose - the bad news for the market makers is that the 176k that were sold this morning were all bought back this afternoon plus a few extra.

They move the share price up and down in waves because it's the only way to get PI's to sell. Some get excited by the prospect of a few hundred quid extra when the price ticks from 10p to 11p and others panic when it drops back through 10p. Most of the free float will have no interest in messing around at these levels.

We know a full update is coming in the next few weeks as that's what the CEO said on Friday 25th Aug. He also wants to get the share price to re-rate in line with arbitration peers (GreenX), to do that he'll need to provide regular updates to maintain momentum. It promises to be quite the ride.

Yep, fairly tragic to see the sells - presumably based on the false expectation of a 10 bagger in the space of 2 days. The good news is they'll be back with mega FOMO when an RNS lands with the BIT claim details. This is a multi year hold for me - completely uncorrelated with the wider market & backed by a litigation funder with a >95% success rate.

"There's fantastic growth happening at MTEC"

Guess you didn't read that the outlook is for revenue to be flat YoY...

"Post year end highlights and outlook

Revenue for FY24 expected to be in line with FY23"

This is a downgrade vs the previous forecast of £43m

Interesting update, although I'm not invested here for a short term resolution it would of course be a bonus. It appears to be win win to me. If the court of Rajasthan rule in our favour then the prospecting license is on the way, alongside a likely JORC resource of 6-8Moz in the near term, potentially double that longer term. If they don't then the formal arbitration claim will be filed in the international court.

My guess is that we are continuing the process of finalising the BIT submission & that in the meantime the court process is seen as a free shot at goal - if the Indians decide an expensive legal battle isn't worth the hassle then the license could be arriving. We are also likely finalising a JV partner - if they were announced between now and 27th September would that boost our chances of the court ruling in favour? If it's an internationally recognised name then maybe it could...

A review of the financial statements suggests this is still overvalued given the uncertainty in the outlook.

Balance sheet looks distinctly unattractive - £85m term loan repayable on 31/01/24, net debt of £35m

P&L - £42m in operating profit last year, so it's still trading at around 21x OP - not cheap at all

Basic EPS 36.2p, so again it's still really expensive on a PE basis

In terms of technical support, below £13.70 I don't see anything significant until the £7-9 range. £4 was reached in Jan 2019 on a materially below expectations trading update, EBITDA has roughly doubled since then so a current equivalent of around £8 would start to become attractive.

One for the watchlist, but no interest at the current valuation.

L2 looks balanced today - Peel are bidding for stock at 10.5 which is a good sign. All about the next 6/12/18 months and what unfolds. We're still miles off the radar when it comes to the AIM herd - shares will be rarer than hens teeth when anything positive does arrive.

Lol, can't say I've ever had 3 accounts parrot any post of mine, bit weird. I also found the posting history of 'killerjoe' very odd. Joined LSE in Jan 2023 and has only ever posted on G4M, always in a negative manner. Clearly has an agenda.

I spent a decent bit of time on Friday going over the last few years of financial statements. Things worth noting;

- They own freehold property of ~£7.8m, including a £5m head office and some distribution centres. These are genuine assets and mean that in my mind the real net debt figure is sub £7m.

- Cash generated from operations totals £47m over the last 5 years, including £7.2m last year. Completely out of sync with the current £25m market cap. Likely to generate ~£10m this year.

- The most stunning figure is the balance sheet equity of £37m, I've never seen a going concern trading at 50% of it's book value. Pre Covid in March 2020 it's BV was £21m, at the bottom of the Covid crash shares hit £1.40, valuing the business at £28m or 1.3x BV. An equivalent valuation today would have a market cap of £49m / £2.35 a share. So at £1.30 it's still obscenely cheap IMO.

It's worth noting that Marks Electrical, an online retailer of household appliances, with turnover of £113m, gross margins of ~20% and adjusted EBITDA for 2023 of £7.5m, is trading at a £103m market cap. Their balance sheet equity totals £13m... I know which one I'd rather own if I wanted to make a good return over the next 12 months as consumer confidence returns.

The market makers have simply bounced it off the long term downtrend at 11.35p - as expected and a healthy way to balance supply and demand. Loose shares from the hands of those who aren't researched or patient will be used to cover the dozens of buys over the last few days. The important thing is that we've set a new year high and an uptrend is now forming.

IMO we'll break the 11.35p downtrend resistance on the next positive RNS - whatever that is. Mark said a full summary of the arbitration situation would land in a few weeks on the proactive video on 25th Aug, that could well be the catalyst. Or something could appear on Monday...

What a bizarre post. You realise that those profit forecasts include depreciation costs of £6m+? I'll post a full response in due course, however the biggest error you make is assuming that AIM is efficient and that the current £20m market cap is pricing G4M anywhere near accurately...

A £20m market cap with depreciation adjusted profit before tax of £7-10m and a bit of debt which could be paid off by normalising inventory (£34m at year end) back to pre covid levels (£22m).

The market has been pricing this to go bust, it very much looks like it's doing well, so it should move up strongly as the threat of debt covenants etc is removed from the share price.

How is a market leader like G4M with £160m in revenues & £10m in adjusted EBITDA trading at £20m market cap?! Yes they had £14.5m net debt at 31/03, however based on today's RNS the business sounds in good shape.

They IPO'd in 2015 at a market cap of £28m with turnover of £24m and adjusted EBITDA of £1.1m

It's simply incredible that it's got so cheap - bizarre even.

NT for more than 5k shares, looking good for a breakout into close...

Seems like a good time to repost this...

"Ok, here goes my claim quantum effort - no investment advice / DYOR...

IMO there are three key factors that will be used to determine the market value of the investment at the time of the alleged expropriation in 2021; the in ground value of the gold, when the expropriation became public knowledge & the estimated size of the resource at that point in time.

I found this 2015 research report really useful to try and put some meat on the bones of some analysis;

http://www.cipherresearch.com/reports/150601_The-Real-Value-of-Gold-in-the-Ground.pdf

It studied 253 transactions involving gold companies between 1990-2013 and determined that the average price paid per in ground oz was $63. The average price of gold over the 24 year study period was $605/oz. So the average transaction paid 10.4% of the 'in ground' value. That may be skewed by the fact that for 16 of those 24 years gold averaged ~$350, but to me that seems like a sensible figure to use and leaves some upside.

The 1999 BIT states; "The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge"

Based on this link it looks like 15th March 2021 was when the bill was first introduced; https://prsindia.org/billtrack/the-mines-and-minerals-development-and-regulation-amendment-bill-2021

'Immediately before this on the 14th March 2021 gold traded at $1720, so using the 10.4% figure above, that gives us an in ground market value of ~$178.88/oz

Then we just have to apply that to the resource size. IMO there is no chance PAT are just going to claim for the 2008 JORC of 1.74Moz given how much that figure would have risen in the 13 years between then and the official expropriation. However, even if the arbitration panel decided to use that figure it would still come to a claim size of $311m, or some 20x the current market cap. That's the ultimate downside here IMO.

However, it's far more likely that PAT will utilise the 2 resource studies from the GSI, the 6.7Moz from 2014 or the 7.9Moz from 2021 that I posted earlier on.

6.7Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.2b

7.9Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.4b

That's the size of the prize... and before anyone says they could claim for 10Moz+, they would need some reasonable basis to do so, that is what makes the GSI work potentially so valuable."

Nicely put jmar121, that's exactly what has gone on here. And yes the order book is looking better and better, I've just added a few more as it feels like it's getting primed to jump.

The delayed trades are interesting given the upwards share price movement this week. They indicate that there is a buyer taking shares off our big seller, potentially the same party that held back the rise 2 weeks ago. It makes sense, given that most posters on here are convinced this is undervalued by several multiples.

If I wanted to take out a seller in a share like PAT, I'd also want to give the price a nudge higher after they are out of shares, so would buy a couple of chunks at 11p, then your holding is immediately in profit.

Let's see what happens, but something is clearly brewing IMO.

Yep was an easy swing trade. The only thing I can't explain is the £51m of funds held on behalf of customers & why this has been included in balance sheet cash rather than restricted cash? The inflow came in FY23 but unhelpfully there is no commentary as to what is it!