Member Info for ShearClass

MM's looking short of stock here - raising the bid but can't buy more than £6k's worth. Their problem is that there aren't any sellers...

If interest rates have peaked I expect a lot of the higher quality AIM stocks to re-rate quite quickly. I note two such stocks, Instem & Ergomed have been acquired in the last 2 trading days, both at valuations equal to their 2021 highs. ELIX have made plenty of progress in the last 2.5 years yet shares are currently trading level with early 2021, which is completely illogical.

Interims should land in the next couple of weeks and I'd be very surprised if we don't see further upgrades.

Mickey, again where is the evidence that GoR were upset at a delay? I'm keen to understand more about the situation but haven't been able to find any links to commentary on the court case - could someone post it again please?

"showed why the GoR was keen to settle this past couple of court dates"

What evidence is there that they were keen to settle?

Yep, order book looks solid this morning - just need to clear 10p and we'll be off...

I'd love to see it but we are in the midst of the worst AIM bear market since the dot com crash, expecting 6 bags in a few weeks is just naivety.

Honestly, you all need to forget about options, there is no chance any broker is offering them on PAT shares, it's comical even thinking about it.

I'd be more than happy with £50m market cap in the next 6 months and think it's a realistic target. In this market there is no chance of a £200m market cap inside that time frame unless they sign a JV with Barrick & get the prospecting license. In reality, £100m in the next 3 years would be fantastic from these levels. No idea why 8 bags isn't exciting enough?!

if anyone would prefer to read something more interesting than whether or not a gap will close, this is a fascinating case between an australian company called tethyan copper & the ****stan government;

https://www.iisd.org/itn/en/2019/12/17/tribunal-finds-****stan-breached-fet-expropriation-non-impairment-obligations-mining-joint-venture-with-australian-investor-tethyan-copper-company-tethyan-copper-company-v-****stan-icsid-arb-12-1/

it definitely has echoes of what happened with bhukia, with tethyan applying for a mining license in 2011 and being denied for what turned out to be illegal reasons. the reko diq mine makes bhukia's current size look small - it contains some 41.5moz gold and 24.1mt of copper! the end result was tethyan being awared $4.05b in compensation + pre award interest calculated from mid 2011 to 2019 which came to >$2.5b.

the pre award interest is another reason why it's not in the best interests of india to fight all the way to the iscid tribunal decision if the facts don't stack up in their favour (and with fasken + lcm having undertaken 1-2 years of dd i can't see how they will).

in the event of a £750m award, interest will likely be calculated from the point of breach until payment is made at the us prime rate rate, this currently sits at 8.5%... if this is determined as march 21 and the tribunal decision is finalized 3 years time, the total pre award interest due on the £750m would be ~£340m, taking the compensation award well beyond the £1b mark.

even today with prime rates have been 3.5% for 2021 and 5.7% in 2022, compound interest on an arbitrary £750m sits at >£100m.

this is why an early settlement, which includes a grant of the license, would appear to be favourite (and why lcm have insisted it's part of their t&c's for repayment).

in the meantime, the market makers / breakers will attempt to shake out weak hands.

No idea why there is so much over complication around the sell trades.

They are most likely to be ordinary shares which were purchased for 4.25p in the March placing. A 140% profit over 5 months in the current climate will be hard for any 'sophisticated' investor to turn down. There were 23m shares placed in total, some will have been flipped in the June rise & some in the 2 months since, a placing always creates a headwind but it will quickly clear - volume since Friday has been around 13m shares...

They could be warrant sales, however nothing has been exercised yet - although it's possible an existing holder has sold down their position at 9-10p and will then exercise the warrants at 6.68p to book a profit but maintain their total position. Needs a warrant exercise RNS first though.

I highly doubt any broker will offer put/call options on Panthera shares as the market cap is too small & it's horribly illiquid. If a deal with a major is announced it could do 300% quite easily, no broker needs to risk being on the wrong end of that.

I'm taking a 1-3 year view with a £1+ share price target, could easily go higher but anything around those levels would do for me ;)

Great interview with a lot of additional detail to get stuck into. Interesting in the last minute he discusses the 'valuation reflecting our peer group in this arbitration space', the only one I'm aware of is GreenX which sits at £130m and is also funded by LCM. That would be equivalent to 85p a share based on current share capital. It also very much suggests that the claim value will be similar to theirs (£737m).

And yes, someone like a newmont as a JV partner would be amazing & really light a fire under the share price.

I'll be adding more when funds become available but am very happy with what I currently have. I find it hard to believe there won't be dozens of PI's tempted to snap up significant chunks of the company at these prices once they understand the whole picture...

As soon as this seller clears we'll be off to 15-20p IMO. Very likely from the March placing or a distressed seller due to the wider bear market. It's brain dead as if they just let up for a few days they could likely get double the price.

Oh and @vernetles, I've no idea on the September stuff either - anyone got a link to recent Rajastan court activity?

Think it's worth co-writing for some that the arbitration case that LCM are funding will be tried in an international court, not within the Indian system.

I was the same with Argo & Yu, at the time it's very hard to imagine a company rising by 20x but it does happen, particularly across the pond. With LCM effectively legitimising the Bhukia claim and providing $13.6m in non recourse funding there appears to be a more than fair chance of it occurring here. A firm with a 95% case success rate does not throw money at arbitration cases without having significant conviction. All about letting the story play out over the coming months.

Going to repost these thoughts every few days so they don't get lost;

"Ok, here goes my claim quantum effort - no investment advice / DYOR...

IMO there are three key factors that will be used to determine the market value of the investment at the time of the alleged expropriation in 2021; the in ground value of the gold, when the expropriation became public knowledge & the estimated size of the resource at that point in time.

I found this 2015 research report really useful to try and put some meat on the bones of some analysis;

http://www.cipherresearch.com/reports/150601_The-Real-Value-of-Gold-in-the-Ground.pdf

It studied 253 transactions involving gold companies between 1990-2013 and determined that the average price paid per in ground oz was $63. The average price of gold over the 24 year study period was $605/oz. So the average transaction paid 10.4% of the 'in ground' value. That may be skewed by the fact that for 16 of those 24 years gold averaged ~$350, but to me that seems like a sensible figure to use and leaves some upside.

The 1999 BIT states; "The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge"

Based on this link it looks like 15th March 2021 was when the bill was first introduced; https://prsindia.org/billtrack/the-mines-and-minerals-development-and-regulation-amendment-bill-2021

'Immediately before this on the 14th March 2021 gold traded at $1720, so using the 10.4% figure above, that gives us an in ground market value of ~$178.88/oz

Then we just have to apply that to the resource size. IMO there is no chance PAT are just going to claim for the 2008 JORC of 1.74Moz given how much that figure would have risen in the 13 years between then and the official expropriation. However, even if the arbitration panel decided to use that figure it would still come to a claim size of $311m, or some 20x the current market cap. That's the ultimate downside here IMO.

However, it's far more likely that PAT will utilise the 2 resource studies from the GSI, the 6.7Moz from 2014 or the 7.9Moz from 2021 that I posted earlier on.

6.7Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.2b

7.9Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.4b

That's the size of the prize... and before anyone says they could claim for 10Moz+, they would need some reasonable basis to do so, that is what makes the GSI work potentially so valuable."

Interesting looking at the order book view on L2 which appears several times a day, right now we have the current view of the 11am auction.

On Friday the order book had 200k shares for sale at 8.75p, 200k at 9p and 200k at 9.5p. One of those got taken out in the 2pm auction but the rest remained at close. I note this morning 500k shares were sold in the first 30 mins at ~9.5p average price, I suspect this was Friday's seller. That's what stopped the breakout beyond 10p holding despite some very decent buying

Right now the L2 order book has 200k shares for sale at 12.4p and another 200k at 12.8p, so whoever is offloading has now upped their sell price quite significantly. I therefore suspect that once 10p is broken this will swiftly move towards the mid 12p level.

Very generous of someone to provide liquidity, I certainly wouldn't have been able to build the position I took on Friday without them! One thing is for sure, it won't last forever ;)

Cheers JohnLewis79, there is certainly no ramping required here!

In terms of share price movement, the market makers will try their utmost to shake out shares but the reality is there are only 154m in existence. They may have a little bit of supply right now, but with PI's continuing to discover this & buy this will rapidly run out. The reality is that the vast majority of existing shareholders won't be selling at anywhere close to the current share price, frankly I doubt that there is a similar opportunity anywhere on the global markets at this point in time...

I said yesterday that assuming a claim quantum of £500m the market cap at 8.5p was pricing in a 2.7% chance of success, well based on my last post it's pricing in less than this;

@6.7Moz resource / $1.2b quantum, at 10p the market cap is pricing in a 1.6% chance of success

@7.9Moz resource / $1.4b quantum, at 10p the market cap is pricing in a 1.4% chance of success

Incredible really.

I was also very pleased to hear in the stockbox podcast that the CEO is both aware of & massively against dilution, as that is a key part of having the conviction to buy & hold.

Again please do your own research on the above figures / no investment advice :)

Ok, here goes my claim quantum effort - no investment advice / DYOR...

IMO there are three key factors that will be used to determine the market value of the investment at the time of the alleged expropriation in 2021; the in ground value of the gold, when the expropriation became public knowledge & the estimated size of the resource at that point in time.

I found this 2015 research report really useful to try and put some meat on the bones of some analysis;

http://www.cipherresearch.com/reports/150601_The-Real-Value-of-Gold-in-the-Ground.pdf

It studied 253 transactions involving gold companies between 1990-2013 and determined that the average price paid per in ground oz was $63. The average price of gold over the 24 year study period was $605/oz. So the average transaction paid 10.4% of the 'in ground' value. That may be skewed by the fact that for 16 of those 24 years gold averaged ~$350, but to me that seems like a sensible figure to use and leaves some upside.

The 1999 BIT states; "The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article shall be computed on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation or impending expropriation became public knowledge"

Based on this link it looks like 15th March 2021 was when the bill was first introduced; https://prsindia.org/billtrack/the-mines-and-minerals-development-and-regulation-amendment-bill-2021

'Immediately before this on the 14th March 2021 gold traded at $1720, so using the 10.4% figure above, that gives us an in ground market value of ~$178.88/oz

Then we just have to apply that to the resource size. IMO there is no chance PAT are just going to claim for the 2008 JORC of 1.74Moz given how much that figure would have risen in the 13 years between then and the official expropriation. However, even if the arbitration panel decided to use that figure it would still come to a claim size of $311m, or some 20x the current market cap. That's the ultimate downside here IMO.

However, it's far more likely that PAT will utilise the 2 resource studies from the GSI, the 6.7Moz from 2014 or the 7.9Moz from 2021 that I posted earlier on.

6.7Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.2b

7.9Moz * $178.88 = ~$1.4b

That's the size of the prize... and before anyone says they could claim for 10Moz+, they would need some reasonable basis to do so, that is what makes the GSI work potentially so valuable.

Anyone seen this before? Was published in a 2021 special edition from the Geological Society of India titled; “Gold Mining in India: The Way Forward”

"Exploration for Gold and Associated Base Metal Mineralisation in Bhukia Area, Banswara District, Rajasthan"

Link is a bit temperamental but worked earlier this afternoon; https://www.geosocindia.org/index.php/cgsi/article/view/165470

"The Resources calculated based on the preliminary exploration in the Bhukia Field were quite encouraging. The total Resources (Inferred +Indicated) of UNFC 333 category in respect of 15 blocks of the Bhukia Gold Field are 114.78 Mt at an average grade of 1.95 g/t Au and 0.15% Cu with contained gold metal of 223.71 tonnes. A prognostic approach based on multiple parameters would provide additional targets for further exploration leading to new discoveries."

This bit in particular sounds fantastic;

"Eleven gold-sulphide mineralised zones were identified, based on which detailed surface and subsurface exploration was carried out. Drilling up to third level indicated that the gold-sulphide lodes merge at depth resulting in thickening of lodes."

223.71 tonnes gold = 7.9Moz, so looks like they've added a further 1.2Moz onto the 2014 number.

Also of interest is the UNFC code which appears to be a UN equivalent of JORC; https://unece.org/DAM/energy/se/pdfs/UNFC/UNFCemr.pdf

Code 333 is a prospecting study as opposed to 334 which is reconnaissance, so they appear to have done part of PAT's job...

Thanks @Kitrash, yes have done loads of digging, I had a shallow understanding of Bhukia on Friday morning but a very good understanding of LCM and how stringent they are, so I was confident enough to take the plunge here in a significant way. Everything I've read this weekend has massively increased that confidence.

And yes Deckchair, my understanding is that a deal could always be done - the arbitration is a means to strong arm either a negotiated settlement, deal or a ruling in your favour. And I completely agree on the GreenX market cap mickey, this is the exact same situation, except it's a different jurisdiction & a much more exciting resource than GreenX's coal mines...

Good to see people discussing GreenX, I missed the entry point on that one back in 2020 and continue to kick myself as it's 5 bagged and will do a lot more on a successful result!

As a reminder, GreenX had a market cap of ~£20m the day before the LCM funding notice. Todays it's valued at £132m vs a claim value of £737m, so the market is pricing in an 18% or roughly 1 in 5 chance of winning.

The difference with PAT is that they still have a relationship with the Indian government and therefore could get the Bhukia license award at any time during the arbitration process. This should in theory make our shares more valuable as there are two ways to create significant value, vs one at GRX.

IF the claim quantum is £500m then the current market cap is pricing in a 2.7% chance of winning, that simply doesn't tally with LCM's 95% success rate. So much upside to come here.

Yeah they mention 10Moz+ in the stockbox video, however for the purposes of the arbitration case the 6.7Moz is the more relevant figure in my view - obviously if we get the Bhukia prospecting license then it could be drilled to 10Moz+, but that only becomes possible when the license arrives! Either way, it's fairly crazy for a £12m market cap to hold such an incredible asset, unparalleled in my experience.

I suspect PAT will get an influx of hot money over the coming months - the Twitter #PAT is absolutely dead right now, there was only 1 PI tweet yesterday, this tells me that the herd are nowhere to be seen. When a few cotton on to the size of the prize we'll be flying IMO.