Member Info for ShearClass

Cheers for posting that video mickey, always good to get some more detail. This is also a decent watch from pre IPO in 2017;

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hrq4vovyI0Q

Clean plan to define a 6Moz resource within 2 years of getting the prospecting license...

The below is probably the most interesting part of today's RNS;

"The Company completed a total of 21 holes drilled by IGPL and reported a JORC compliant mineral resource estimate of 38.5 Mt @ 1.4 g/t Au for some 1.74 Moz gold using a cutoff of 0.5 g/t Au (2008). The resource was updated in 2017 to comply with JORC 2012. Subsequently, much more work has been done on the project to demonstrate, with confidence, a much larger and more important gold deposit. The Geological Survey of India, an agency of the GoI, published a report in 2014 after the completion of over 150 drill holes (Bulletin Series A (April 2014)), wherein it reported reserve/resource estimates that far exceed the prior figure published by the Company. The report demonstrated the project's merit as supporting a large, low-cost gold mining operation with low stripping ratios and copper and cobalt bi-product credits."

To me that indicates they are likely going to pursue the 6Moz+ resource in the arbitration, even at $100/oz in ground value that's a $600m claim...

To gain more insight it's worth looking back at the PAT admission doc, particularly the competent persons report;

https://pantheraresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Panthera_Resources_Admission_Document_171220.pdf

"3.10 Exploration potential

Mineralisation for both deposits is open in all directions. There is reasonable prospect that further drilling will identify additional mineralisation and this has been partially confirmed by GSI. As explained in Section 3.6, GSI has continued to undertake exploration activities over the project area.

In November 2014 the GSI published Bulletin #62 which reports on all work undertaken within the Bhukia PL area by the GSI. This includes the GSI’s own estimate of mineral resources based on their extensive drilling (42 942 m in 155 drill holes) which totals 106 Mt @ 2.0 g/t Au, 0.15% Cu containing 6.7 Moz gold and 160 000 t copper. While this is not a resource reportable under JORC guidelines, it represents a very significant exploration target."

+

"5.0 FUTURE EXPLORATION STRATEGY

Upside case scenario

- Focus will be to increase the JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate for the project to around 6 Moz gold or more to justify developing a very large open pit operation from the outset, instead of a staged mine development.

- This this will require a longer drill-out period, more detailed studies of all types, and more funding

- Commence scoping and feasibility studies in third year

- Also apply for ML in third year, if appropriate

- Total cash required will be minimum $30M over the three years."

Amazing that a £12m market cap can be in such a position...

Have bought a nice stake here this morning, LCM's reputation is sensational & Prairie / GreenX has 5 bagged since their arbitration case against Poland was announced back in July 2020. They've also just won a $110m settlement against the government of Tanzania on behalf of an Australia company called Indiana Resources which was awarded by an ISCID arbitration tribunal.

The GreenX claim is for £737m and given the funding for PAT is in excess of GreenX, I'd be surprised if the claim quantum doesn't exceed that level. How big could the claim be? A clue is the following line in today's RNS;

"The Company believes that the market value of Bhukia is substantial with the project ranking among the top undeveloped gold projects in the world."

That suggests £1b+ to me & I can only imagine the market reaction should PAT announce a claim of that size... I would be amazed if the market cap didn't settle at a minimum of £50m / 32p post that kind of RNS, and even then that would only be giving a ~5% chance of success.

A very interesting special situation with huge upside & I for one am delighted to have a chance to buy on a sleepy Friday in August before the masses realise what's going on!

Exactly redwineday. WOSG's gross margin last year was just 14%, that tells you they don't add much value at all. With this news I'd say a PE of 10 (520p) is still generous, as the uncertainty created is huge. Quite why droves of PI's are chucking their money at this is beyond me.

Good news...are you mad?

"The acquisition paves the way for Rolex to begin widespread sales of its watches in its own stores. There’s currently only one store in the world owned and operated by Rolex, in its home city of Geneva."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-24/rolex-to-buy-bucherer-in-major-retail-move-for-swiss-brand

£10m market cap vs a likely claim value of >$500m, surely this is GreenX metals mark 2...

And regarding an II selling at these levels, I suspect it's because they don't have a clue what is going on.

Headcount & staff costs over the last 5 years at 31st May;

2018 - 345 - £16.2m

2019 - 420 - £23.5m

2020 - 496 - £27.5m

2021 - 584 - £31.8m

2022 - 716(!) - £37.7m

Their last own IP game, Planet Zoo, was released in November 2019 and was a massive hit. The 4 years since have seen them release a luke warm follow up to Jurassic World Evolution that significantly missed forecasts & then their F1 & Warhammer efforts.

In that time, research and development headcount has more than doubled, from 300 in 2018 to 610 in 2022...

Bear in mind that the £5-10m adjusted EBITDA loss they are forecasting for FY24 would in fact be a substantial profit had staff headcount been kept under control. To grow headcount without a commensurate increase growth in game development is simply bizarre.

It almost feels like they are deliberately driving down the equity value so it can be taken private for a pittance?

Ah so that's what has driven the further decline this morning - the below youtube review informs us that they've diverged from traditional RTS gameplay - the idea of enemies constantly spawning with no way to stop them doesn't sound enjoyable to me, certainly not for $60...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im7w-YV6eec

The medium term direction now appears to hinge on the "own-IP creative management simulation game" they have planned for release next year. It surely has to be Planet something... until they provide more detail I'm staying well clear.

Half year trading update 19/01/23;

"The same market factors, combined with our normal seasonality, have resulted in cash reserves of $38.6m (H1 FY22: $41.7m), and total Bank Debt of $107.9m (H1 FY22: $114.6m)."

Full year trading update;

"As at 30 June 2023, the Group maintained strong operating cash balances of $46.9m (30 June 2022: $47.2m) and total bank debt of $83m (30 June 2022: $111.6m). This further reduction in the overall levels of bank debt is in response to the current interest rate environment and results in a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.67x (FY22: 1.24x). "

That's a very impressive reduction in total bank debt, whilst maintaining their cash reserves. Look forward to the results on 5th September to see more detail on the numbers - however the ~15% drop since the day of the trading update is a nonsense & surely a buying opportunity?

I'd been bearish here in the recent past as they hadn't shown any ability to meaningfully reduce net debt, clearly that has changed looking at todays results...

Price to NAV is around 0.5x now (£154m net assets vs £78m market cap), last year at this time at was nearly 1x (£137m net assets vs £144m market cap)

The diversification into housing disrepair is also a positive, especially if it shortens the working capital cycle. Overall it does look very cheap down here based on the progress YTD.

Amazing liquidity drain in a few high quality AIM shares last week, this had already been dropped by ~20% to 400p off the back of apparently conservative wording in their outlook statement, so to see it fall another 20% down to 315p was fairly shocking. £60m cash, trading below 7x EV/EBITDA & a >4% yield from these levels. Should see a sustained recovery through September as investors return from the summer break IMO.

The company are presenting the interest income as a bonus short term revenue stream, until that narrative changes it's highly unlikely the market is going to give them full credit for it. As I said last month, emulating Wise and treating it as underlying revenue split into two streams with one EPS number would be far more logical than what they are doing, but it is what it is.

I also wonder whether they want to keep the share rangebound until the exiting II's have completed their business.

Berenberg are the market maker who continues to block any move beyond £23, as soon as buys came in at £23.20 a couple of weeks ago they dropped the bid & offer which shut demand down. This has happened multiple times this year. Berenberg entered the major shareholders register last quarter with a 1.05% stake (~400k shares). I think what they do is sell a portion on an attempted breakout and then buy them back + more when PI's exit at the bottom of each trough.

This suits the buying II's as they can continue to buy at

Genghis15, the key is the size of the intercepts and length of strike. Ewoyaa has multiple hits of >50m over a large strike at a solid average grade of 1.25%. The THX results today are relatively narrow (10m true width) and over a tiny strike. So yes, the grades are decent but they need a lot more hits to get anything that would be commercial.

It's a very positive RNS, however it's got to be considered in the context of each device generating ~£850 revenue (Cenkos note in Nov 22). So annualised it looks like Oldham could do around 150 devices, so £130k revenue. To really start scaling they need dozens of sites like Oldham. Let's see what the interim cash burn looks like when they report next month, I think they have amazing potential but they've overreached in their roll out strategy. They should be aiming to conquer the US, UK & EU first and then ROW, instead they are doing it all at the same time. This means cash burn is excessive.

There is a good comp is the Molten Ventures portfolio that I'll post later that illustrates just how excessive Creo cash burn has been - I don't see that changing in the next couple of years and do think they'll need more cash as a result.

Amati have turned into an utter joke, they had 2 FDA related spikes to 110p and 80p into which to offload some of their holding, yet they didn’t take advantage of either and some 8 months after the second they are sellers at 16p! Truly horrendous management of capital.

Totally agree with your comments ShareSleuth. SPAngel mention ALL potentially being allowed to export spodumene until Ghana have their own refinery. If this is the case then surely the Piedmont offtake agreement & $70m+ in pre production funding is dead in its current form?

Right now the market is still valuing Ewoyaa at £225m / ALL’s 45% at £102m. Given the unprecedented uncertainty that still seems expensive to me. Once the facts become clearer then it may be investable again, however if PLL are forced to pull the plug then this will almost certainly go under 10p.

There is also the small matter of ALL raising $58m in pre production CAPEX seemingly without the ability to use the second 50% offtake as consideration. Debt will be hugely expensive & equity very difficult to raise, and it’s not like Ghana are swimming in cash. After 2 years of calm sailing, good ship Atlantic is rapidly heading into a storm.

Very illiquid, lots of profit takers from lower levels but still fundamentally very cheap. So plenty of buyers when it rises but also traders looking to swing. I reckon it’ll hit £1.40+ when the interims come out on 7th September and show significant FCF.

Great news out of Penn last Thursday evening;

https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-shapiro-signs-into-law-commonsense-budget-that-makes-historic-investments-to-create-a-stronger-economy-safer-and-healthier-communities-and-better-schools/

Prior to the sudden change in urgency the budget wasn’t going to be signed off until late September, now it’s done bar a handful of items. Happily the part relevant to Kooth has been approved;

“$100 million for school-based mental health counselors and resources for students.”

TBC how much of that goes towards any full statewide rollout of the Kooth service, however you’d have to think it would be 10-25% based on the pilot. I suspect a formal announcement on a long term contract could be imminent…

It’s incredible how much damage they appear to have done to FDEV’s reputation via the car crash strategy they’ve applied to the F1 manager series. Add in the failed foundry experiment and it starts to look quite desperate. IMO this could easily trade at the 1x sales if they post a significant loss in H1.

Totally agree @goleftmassa. If that ruling was announced after market hours & the RNS from LIT lands this morning then I suspect we'd be trading over £1 right now. Bulletin boards are both a friend & enemy in situations like yesterday, it was a relief to find the source of the fall, but then very stressful to read boll*cks from the likes of Forensic505 who clearly didn't have a clue what they were talking about.

Suspect we'll be punching out to new highs in no time, as faith in management has been significantly reinforced.