Member Info for ShearClass

I see this has started falling again after yesterday's announcement regarding Luke Burtis no longer being part of the 'concert party', was this the trigger for him starting to sell down his holding? Answers on a postcard as always with these lot. Ps. I see from the annual accounts that both the CEO & CFO were awarded €135k bonuses last year, however despite this the CFO continues to hold ZERO shares. If it's so undervalued you'd think he'd use even 20% of the net proceeds to buy some shares?

Ok guys, I'll leave you to your excellent investment - good luck.

Yep I gathered that from the RNS, where is this quote from?

It's interesting looking back at Suboxone revenue - in Q1 2020 they reported $124m of suboxone revenue with market share of 22%. Fast forward 3 years and suboxone has only declined to $113 with market share of 19% despite multiple generics entering the market. The take away is that Suboxone clearly has strong brand loyalty or the generics don't work nearly as well. A quick google suggests a bit of both.

I.e. https://suboxnashville.com/generic-suboxone-films-causing-withdrawals-rashes-and-stomach-aches-alvogen-dr-reddys-santoz/

Trendz, at 31/12 they had net debt of £70m, you can't calculate a P/E ratio and ignore debt like that. Add that to the current £87m market cap and you have an enterprise value of £157m, which would be equivalent to a £1.33 share price. Forecast earnings in 2023 are 11.8p, so it's currently trading at an 'adjusted' PE of 11.2x. Given their balance sheet & inability to collect receivables I'd say that's very generous.

VW case settlement nothing to write home about;

"The terms of the agreement are subject to confidentiality restrictions, however the Group can announce that it will have a net positive cash position to Anexo of £7.175 million."

Doesn't even cover half of the extortionate Blazehill capital principal debt...

Alkermes (ALKS) is a NASDAQ listed pharma that market another opoid dependence drug (vivitrol). Their Q1 revenues were $287m with $96.7m of this coming from vivitrol, up from $84.7m in the prior year. They're trading at an enterprise value of $4.5b, so EV/Sales ratio is ~3.9.

INDV is forecasting 2023 sales of $1.01b and has a current EV of ~$2.4b, so is on an EV/Sales of just 2.3x

Gives INDV has significantly faster sales growth, higher gross margins & has now removed the legal overhang I think there is significant upside potential over the coming weeks post next Monday's NASDAQ listing. Aligning with the Alkermes EV/s would put the share price at around £26...

Wow, quite bizarre to see an uncrossing trade at £20 for just 487 shares. I can't believe the LSE allow such manipulation to take place - the exact same thing happened on 17th May with a UT of £22 when shares had been trading at £22.8-£23 all day. It appears to be a tactic to break momentum & cause technicals based selling. The sooner this is off the cess pit of the AIM the better.

Ps. Everythingmoney, please don't start a new thread each time you post...

Bought a decent chunk here on the 20% pullback to support, shares did the same thing in mid April (240p) before rebounding to new highs only a couple of weeks ago.

With food price inflation at record highs, revenue should continue to beat expectations, particularly as Ice Cream is one of their most profitable product lines. Note the below chart showing ice cream producer inflation over the last 10 years;

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/evop/mm22

The index price for ice cream in Feb was 122.2 and in March jumped to 142.2 & added a further point to 143.1 in April... that 17% rise is historically massive (on an absolute basis, it's almost the same as the change from mid 2012 to Feb 23 (97 to 121)

Should lead to a very strong second half IMO.

So all those hedge funds clearly bought shares in the placing - the 19m new shares were admitted on 31st May. No chance they’ve reduced that much in the open market given the price movement.

It’s entirely possible that they bought substantially more back in the placing & then sold additional blocks to drop the share price again straight after the RNS was released. The result looks like a net decline when it’s actually just very sneaky behaviour.

Wow that Times article is beyond pathetic, whinging because 17 out of 99 varieties of chick peas were out of stock one day last week?! You couldn’t make it up.

Anyone think this could leave the LSE for the US?

RonnieH, EPS was upgraded by 42%, so a 26% move in the share price means they are cheaper than last night. So if you’re selling you are thick as mince.

In the current environment there will always be sellers after a 25% rise, however there will be significantly more buyers than sellers over the coming weeks as the news spreads, so the share price should re-rate again. Interims are also expected by late July which is 2 months earlier than last year (per the SP Angel note).

I was critical at the full year results due to reported bad debt levels offsetting top line growth, however that is a fairly spectacular update this morning - some bits from Liberum's note;

They've increased FY 23 and FY 24 FD EPS estimates by 42% and 10% respectively, after upgrading them 2% in January

They've increased FY 23 net cash (exc. leases) estimate from £24m to £35m mainly to reflect the profit upgrades

They've assumed that the FY 23 EBITDA margin increases from 2.8% in FY 22 to 4.0%, vs. the previous estimate of 3.1%

They've reduced expectation of FY 23 bad debt provisions from 6.3% of sales to 5.7%, vs. 7.7% in FY 22

Fully diluted EPS now forecast to be 61.1p vs 43.3p previously, so at 540p this morning it's actually on a lower FY23 PE than it was last night...(10.8 last night at 470p vs 8.8 this morning at 540p), and cheaper again on an EV/EBITDA basis.

@Happyinvestor, glad to see we're on the same wavelength now. IMO the only hope here is to steadily reduce their inventory holding by around 50%, to do that they'll need to dial back on new buying & sell down more than they buy. They can then use the freed up capital to get rid of that ridiculous 11% debt & then start to build back slowly over a number of years. The huge concern is that this would have been by far the best way to resolve their working capital position, the fact they chose the 11% debt plus an insufficient £75m equity suggests their inventory isn't liquid or that management are in denial about what needs to happen...

Yep, well when Avalon merged with REDT back in March 2020 the market cap at readmission was £63.4m, so just £4m less than now...

Very interesting Cannacord note / video, particularly in light of labour's proposed aggressive renewables push after the next election. With IES valued at the same level as post the Avalon merger the risk reward feels quite asymmetric...

He's basically been moving money around & increasing his option / spreadbet exposure.

Before last week he had 500k put options exercisable at £9 + 2m at £8 +100k shares held via a spreadbet (RNS's back in December & March)

Last week he closed off the 500k put options exercisable at £9, but added 1m new options exercisable at £8 + bought an extra 800k shares via spreadbet.

So he started the week with 2.6m shares held via options / spreadbets & ended it with 3.9m

The upshot is that he appears very confident shares will trade over £8 before September

I think the Shore / Liberum / AJ Bell commentary is on the money. Nowhere near enough capital.

He'll be laughing his head off IMO. Probably lining his buys up for under £3. Simply incredible that this traded above £50 from mid 2020 to mid 2021 & here they are 2 years later borrowing £275m at 11% interest.