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CVSG isn't a market maker stock, it's on SETS. Looked back at the adjusted EBITDA margins from 2014 to present on the their vetinary segment, pre 2020 they averaged ~17%, post 2020 they've averaged ~21.5%. What has changed to justify a 25% uplift? Notable that the warned on EBITDA margins back in 2017/18 (which caused shares to crater from £15 to £3.60 over 18 months), this current stage 2 fall is similar to the pattern back then.

Could be, I suspect the 4 largest shareholders who have held since IPO were instrumental in initiating the share buyback as they wouldn't want a low ball offer coming in when shares were at their lows. The buyback also serves to increase their ownership stakes, which would be further supplemented if they are adding shares as well...

Again it's worth noting that there are at least two order book buyers here - FCH are placing bids on the book which are being filled by the seller, to the tune of 241k today. However there are other significant buyers taking blocks of 100k.

Once sellers are exhausted then the only way is up, and having additional large buyers is extremely helpful. Very interesting to watch it play out.

One key piece of information seems to be missing from the US expansion RNS; if the partner is going to cover all marketing costs, what do they get in return? Surely there has to be either an equity share or commission element?

I suspect T Rowe are the sellers, as they had been reducing their exposure to the UK for quite some time now. To get the best out of this investment I think you've got to take a 6-12 month view - i.e. give them time to buy the shares back and let the price squeeze higher. They have authority to buy back up to ~36m shares before the AGM in mid May, so it will be interesting to see how many they actually take out of circulation before then. The main takeaway is high volume = a good thing.

I think what's more notable today is the buying volume excluding the buyback, there is clearly a big buyer in the market hoovering up more shares than the company can...

Closing auction again interesting. A seller showed their hand early doors with 200k on the ask, this was matched pretty quickly with a 200k buy order at 50p, buys vs sells was about 2v1, with some 400k of buys left on the book at uncrossing. Again, it's easy to be bullish here just due to the fact that they could buy back 53m shares at these levels and the top 4 holders of >16m shares have held since the IPO at £4... Look forward to seeing how many they have bought back when the RNS lands later.

Indeed. Shares were trading at 70p in Feb 2023 during what was a far more uncertain economic environment, without any flexipay growth, without the genuine prospect of profitability post US exit & without a £25m buyback. It's just far too cheap down here.

@gallmat, it's just a bureaucratic nightmare, where nepotism appears to be the preferred currency

Not sure if you've read this 2007 times of india article before but it gives a good idea of the optimism there was back the re. Bhukia / Indo Gold;

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indo-golds-finding-to-lure-foreign-firms/articleshow/1653943.cms

It discloses some important information re. a point you were asking about a couple of days ago;

"The site of the discovery is in an uninhabited area, requiring no relocation"

Brilliant late RNS - 237k shares bought back today, make sure you scroll down for the itemized buys. What's notable is that they were bidding shares up this morning paying 47.75p and then taking the bids off the order book this afternoon at 46.6p, as well as the 50k buy at 47.5p. Makes sense if you want to buy as many as possible at current levels.

Have spent a decent amount of time looking at the accounts this morning and my conclusion is this isn't anywhere close to being cheap. Adjusted EBITDA / EBITDA & 'underlying EPS' are completely irrelevant when amortising large acquisition costs and they still have >£300m to put through the P&L.

Basic EPS in the interims was 20.4p, annualised that puts the current PE at >25x. And they have material debt to boot.

This has been an incredible journey for early investors who have held for 10+ years, back in 2012 it traded at just over £1 a share, but until the outcome of the CMA saga becomes clear it's unattractive IMO, especially with the aforementioned debt.

Nope, that's the consultation period to get industry feedback on lunching a formal market investigation...

Next steps

"The CMA has launched a four-week consultation to seek views from the sector on the proposal to launch a market investigation. The consultation closes on 11 April 2023 at which point it will consider the responses received and a decision will be made on how to proceed."

From this mornings RNS;

"Concentrated local markets, in part driven by sector consolidation, may be leading to weak competition in some areas.

Market concentration measures how many competitors operate in a particular market - the fewer firms operating in a market, the more concentrated it is.

· In 2013, around 10% of vet practices belonged to large groups, but that share is now almost 60%, and many of the large groups have expressed an intention to continue expanding their business through acquisition of independently owned practices.

· To illustrate this another way, since 2013 1,500 of the 5,000 vet practices in the UK have been acquired by the six large corporate groups (CVS, IVC, Linnaeus, Medivet, Pets at Home and VetPartners).

· This may reduce the number of business models in locations where most or all of the first opinion practices are owned by one large corporate group, giving less choice to consumers because they tend to choose practices close to home."

Ed, it's not just that LCM think we can win, it's that they've provided $13.6m in non recourse funding & our current market cap is pricing in a ~1.5% chance of winning...

The timeline is an unknown, Poland aren't in ISCID either and it hasn't unduly impacted Greenx's timeline, which saw them go from signing the LCM funding agreement in July 2020 to completion of the hearing against Poland in November 2022.

The main points in the near term are claim quantum & the outcome of the May auction.

Closing auction again interesting, 100k buy order at 45p went unfilled (as if someone is testing the waters after the 450k at 42p on Friday) and then a 50k buy order came in at 45.5 right at the end. Neither were filled, not a seller in sight.

Very strong trading into close, quoted 47.78p for size, there appears to be limited stock available & why should there be at these distressed levels with a buyback initiated?!

They hadn't started the buyback as of Friday close as they have to RNS each day the amount of shares acquired, once they do it will be really interesting to see how many they can buy at these levels.

The KPI's for Flexipay look really good indeed;

H2 Income per active account grew to £861 (6500 accounts, £5.6m income), vs H1 which was £605 (3800 accounts, £2.3m income)

Average month end balances per active account held steady (£56m / 6500 = £8600, vs H1 which was £34m / 3800 = £8900), I'd say this stat is especially impressive given the 71% growth in active accounts during the half who wouldn't have been using the product for a whole period.

In H123 they added a net 1800 active accounts, in H223 this increased to a net 2700. Should this cadence continue for the next 12 months, FY24 would end with 14600 active accounts, if income per active account stays at £861 per 6 months (£1723 annualised) , then revenue would hit £25m

What we can say with a fair bit of certainty is that Flexipay has good product market fit, now it's about scaling this product to as many UK SME's as possible. As of YE22 they had lent to 84k UK SME's since 2010, so there is loads of runway...

"I think it has value, but have worry about dilution."

GreenX have followed the exact same path as PAT appear to have ahead of them. Periodically raising capital at increasing share prices as their litigation process proceeds & using this capital to fund their other projects. It has worked just fine over there, with shares up 10x on where they were in the month preceding LIT funding receipt and trading at ~20% of the claim value.

If PAT need £2m per annum going forwards(what they've raised in the last 12 months) and raise at incrementally higher levels each year, then dilution will be minimal vs the claim quantum / any negotiated settlement amount.

I.e. Later this year let's assume they raise £2m at 20p, that would result in 10m new shares at a market cap of £35m, which equals just 4.5% of a $1b claim quantum

2025 £2m at 40p = 5m shares = 9% of a $1b claim quantum

2026 £2m at 60p = 3.33m shares = 15% of a $1b claim quantum

That would mean total dilution of just over 10% from current levels vs a 1000% increase in the share price (and still leave a market cap lower that GRX currently sits...)

Even if you halve those numbers it's still immaterial vs the potential reward.

The key is the rerating to a more appropriate market cap, the risk vs reward looks massively asymmetric to me.

Plus the fact the BOD own just under 10% of shares in issue and the CEO is on record on a podcast saying that avoiding dilution is absolutely critical...

Yeah they know exactly what they are doing IMO, but their strategy will be a masterstroke for PAT shareholders if the arbitration tribunal agree with the case we present. Frankly, I don't really care about how/when we get paid, all I'm interested in is the claim size & the verdict. I'd guess shares would hit 50% of claim size in the event of a positive verdict, I'd be happy to leave some for the next man at that stage...

Really good volume and consolidation today, it will be interesting to see whether they have started the buyback or whether this is institutional investors shuffling their cards.

I make it around 270m shares with notifiable holders & sub 3% holders specificed on Simply Wall Street's register (who must get the data from Bloomberg, date unknown).

So if FCH buy back 40-50m with this £25m tranche then there will be very few shares left in circulation. Hopefully we'll break above 45p early next week, there were very few sellers on the book in the last hour and none in the closing auction, there was a buy for 450k shares at 42p though which went unmatched.

Have followed De Grey for some time as it has a world class discovery, although appears fairly priced.

Here is their DFS from last September for their 6Moz @1.5g/t Hemi deposit; https://degreymining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230928-ASX-DEG-DFS-Equity-Raising-Presentation-lodgement.pdf

P11 has the key info, at the DFS gold price used of $1800 it has a post tax NPV5 of A$2.9b (£1.5b)

De Grey's market cap today is A$2.4b / £1.25b

Bhukia at 6.7Moz @1.945g/t is certainly comparable to this, although obviously in a different jurisdiction with many unknowns regarding infrastructure & cost to mine etc.