Member Info for ShearClass

Gangstilla, YTD volumes taken from Sharepad are below, along with value of shares traded (estimated by taking the close price * volume for the day). Volume on the left, value on the right.

Jan 83,913.00 8,655.87
Feb 77,799.00 7,478.41
Mar 631,787.00 60,834.03
Apr 16,667,620.00 4,130,426.72
May 44,664,891.00 14,203,481.05
Jun 33,070,701.00 6,179,527.42
Jul 15,275,612.00 2,490,691.10
Aug 12,585,441.00 2,315,957.82
Sep 13,410,391.00 3,364,561.51
Oct 4,116,264.00 1,541,969.30

Volumes / value traded in May & June was £20m, whereas Sep & Oct has totalled just £5m so far. Adam Norris selling out his 16.5% stake held the price back substantially.

This time we have a genuine product, so volume when it arrives should be higher than May / June IMO.

The sells make absolutely no sense to me either - 3 x 50k dumped on submission alongside other sells, would love to know the strategy behind those... it takes all sorts to make a market I guess! Hopefully we'll get another Proactive interview that'll outline the potential time saving from priority review...

@Torre - the difference this time is that its not down to TB, it's Payaytec & more importantly Carl Smythe & Sheffield Uni that is driving progress. His tweets on the test detection were excellent and provided really good insight into the potential of the device...that's why I'm here.

@Chester18, very interesting post - I've been watching this for a few weeks after seeing a couple of II's load up - Oryx in particular was a positive sign. Worth noting that the market cap at the conclusion of the £40m placing back in July 2017 was £110m giving an enterprise value of £70m vs the current EV of just £13m - a significant difference regardless of the issues encountered along the way.

Clearly if you've held since the 10p days the last placing was a disaster; bad timing with Covid & obviously not helped by shooting themselves in the foot with the banking covenants / loan, followed by Invesco offloading. Hopefully the current SP recovery will continue...

Yes excellent to see the submission completed. Anyone know how much time a priority review could save?

The 27p was as an input error & was immediately changed to 47p on L2 - thankfully the market makers can’t drop a share 50% in one go to take out stop losses ;)

Agree on the 1 year hold, be nice to get the official submission ticked off this week...

@Goldballs, they make net 75p a test according to Fincapp.. they are just a manufacturer and own no IP (their CEO confirmed this in their presentation yesterday) whereas Paraytec very much do. Their market cap seems way overblown in general, but crazy compared to BRH. There is a LOT of PI cash in ODX / GDR / AVCT & NCYT that could migrate here over the next few weeks - £14m isn’t going to last long IMO.

Excellent to get the first confirmed orders, well done to all who've held throughout the summer! I dipped in right before the close so very pleased to see official RNS confirmation. I'd guess an open of £1.20 ish? Will certainly be a wild first half hour....

The peak of 50p in early May was on news that was immaterial in comparison to the current developments. It would have likely continued a lot higher if Adam Norris hadn't sold his 16.5% stake (5.1m shares) into the rise. Definitely think £25m is the minimum we should be looking for at proof of concept stage, indeed it's quite remarkable to have got this far and still have such a low mcap. I think the shenanigans earlier in the year has a lot to do with it.

Also worth remembering that VAL recently hit £40m market cap recently, propelled from £4m by a herd of new buyers. I expect things could get very interesting here before next Friday...

Indeed, the price hit a high of 9.75p on the 24th Aug trading update, 40% upside from current levels just to get back there...

Added 10k, I was in BRH earlier this year when they were linked with Aptamer group which didn't work out - fortunately bailed long before the price fell to 12p.... This time it looks like they have a really interesting proposition which they have a direct interest in. Genedrive at £61m vs the £14m market cap here looks like the most relevant comparison, and the price should build into the announcement of final proof of concept results on Friday 16th...

It was officially announced last week! However we were only told about the first minimum £150m + further £100m , therefore the £406m value came as a nice surprise, it seems they are going to very significantly exceed their expectations ;)

@KHDJ, volumes / value of shares traded means that regular day traders can't move NCYT anymore. There have been just shy of 5m shares traded on Euronext so far today, that's around 30m EUR. We have also traded £9m on LSE. IMO we're currently mid re-rate, if these volumes are maintained we should see double figures pretty soon, as the combination of positive sentiment, low free float & high volume is not something market makers can mess with.

I'm not sure Lolo, the £63m contract wasn't announced & the £406m is significantly higher than last weeks - given the fast moving situation it's possible they have pressed go on the 700 additional PCR machines mentioned last week? That would tie in value wise...

It is simply insane that the market cap remains less than the combined value of the two tenders confirmed this morning! I'm sure the £406m is the contract that was RNS'd last week, but that is a huge increase on the values disclosed (£150m minimum + £100m for stage 2). Then add the second £63m - is this the extension to the April DHSC award?

And add in;

"If DHSC does not proceed with the purchase as soon as possible it is likely that this supply will be purchased by another country (due to high global demands);"

I don't see how this doesn't reach £1b market cap minimum from here, given everything else that's going on. The net inflow of new money over the coming weeks is going to be huge, and 90% of shareholders won't be going anywhere. An RNS is one thing, but an official tender award really is next level.

If this doesn't increase dramatically pretty soon then it'll get taken out for the cash on the balance sheet IMO...

@ShaunP, the tricky part of forecasting revenue is that we don’t know what their revenue recognition policy is & order flow may not match the manufacturing production as buyers order well ahead of fulfilment etc. Also how much of December production will be sold vs retained as inventory? I’d say £400m, but it’s all fairly academic when contracts like last weeks land!

Also completely agree re. ODX margins & AVCT product launch. I see both as ticking time bombs without margin or revenue confirmation, GDR even more so.

@Buyonred, it’s all about semantics & interpretation. They reiterated their July guidance in the 16th September update;

“Full year revenues are expected to exceed €150 million and EBITDA profitability to exceed €100 million.”

They didn’t provide an estimated range or total order book value, so all we can gather from the statement is that it will exceed €150m. How then could this be misleading if the actual number ends up being much higher?

Of course all of this was before last weeks huge £150m order, which made prior guidance irrelevant. I found it interesting that even after this order, guidance was only tweaked to ‘significantly exceed £150m’, when it will now be at a minimum double this amount?

They are keeping their cards close to their chest; no cash figure, no confirmation of manufacturing capacity, no order book value, no accurate year end projection. Why? They are on the acquisition trail for either a product or company, so why emphasise anything beyond the bare minimum?

Besides, no shareholder is ever going to complain if actual figures massively surprise to the upside, only those who didn’t buy in and have missed the boat!

That's all Crabtree ever does, one line uber ramps that never happen. An utter bull**** merchant!

@ShaunP, thanks a lot for the file uploaded - it's like the NCYT bible! Re. other diagnostics getting concerned about the speed that we execute, that will almost certainly be true. I think this was an existing competitive advantage / strength which has been enhanced further by the collaborations with AZN, GSK & having a bucket load of cash to remove any barriers to production. Nice to see us back up to Tuesday's levels again :)

I agree to an extent Chrishar, I think our biggest future increases will come from acquisitions that add recurring revenue & profitability that can be used to calculate terminal value.

This is where yesterday’s contract adds huge potential value; if we assume a 50% EBITDA margin on yesterday’s minimum £150m, that provides around £75m cash for an acquisition. If we get the whole £750m for phase 2, then £375m could in theory go in the M&A pot. Safe to say you could buy a very decent private entity with that budget, with recurring revs of say £30m at a 50% EBITDA margin, even at 5 x revenue it would cost £150m.

So maybe we can view each large contract that lands as increasing the likelihood of this becoming a mid cap via the M&A route, rather than assuming it’ll happen via organic sales?

Positively, NCYT have a successful track record of finding hidden gems - they found primer design back in 2016 and paid just £13m or so! Not a bad piece of business ;)