Member Info for ShearClass

I thought it was an interesting company back in 2019 when I looked in, the problem is so many of these type of businesses are jam tomorrow. The £38m contract and the company it was signed with (https://arrival.com/) is the game changer, as it has started to quantify the potential of the opportunity here.

For the first contract to be with a $3b valued EV tech company is just unreal, they could quite literally have chosen any company in the world to supply the printed circuit boards for their battery modules / packs, and they picked us.

You can be sure the other 82 pipeline companies / 14 under NDA will have taken notice of the agreement, so yes, a second one (or more) to follow before Christmas wouldn't be a surprise at all.

This is certainly an interesting one. I've taken a small position based on their consistent growth trajectory, cash generation & more importantly increasing NAV. Clearly it's valued at this level because there are no forecasts and its very under the radar. The spike a few months back shows how it could re-rate if momentum picked up at all.

If top line growth rates of 50% can be maintained for a couple of years, we could see something like the following;

2020 : £250m rev / £15m gross profit / £3m profit before tax
2021 : £375m rev £22.5m gross profit / £7m profit before tax

It won't be valued at £10m if the above happens, and we can be confident of no dilution as they haven't issued new shares for donkey's years, and have £5m cash. Curious to see where this is in 12 months.

Another chunky buy - 50k at 80p, following on from the 46k at 76p earlier, free float rapidly diminishing, no surprise given the reasons outlined below!

Re. fund managers buying in, I think as PI's we often assume that the fund managers see everything, but the fact is they definitely don't. How many will have even heard of Trackwise design, let alone realised they have signed a company making agreement? Richard Sneller would be well aware because he took part in the March placing, it was very telling when he almost doubled his holding in the £2 region a couple of weeks back.

UK manufacturing needs success stories now more than ever, and I as well as you believe this is going to be one of them. As early shareholders we should do very well indeed :)

The 277k buy yesterday afternoon certainly changed the direction again, it makes you wonder if the market makers brought it back down purposefully to fill that buy order...

What would this be valued at on the NASDAQ? A heck of a lot more than $160m that's for sure!

@munchbox, I agree it almost seems too good to be true being able to buy shares at this level! I wonder what the total value of those 82 IHT opportunities is? Arrival on its own was £38m, so it's possible / probable the pipeline total could be approaching £1b?

You could put a very strong argument together that this share could be valued in a similar way to ITM Power / Ceres Power in the not so distant future, once the wider market starts to appreciate the potential on offer & more deals start to land. It's an EV play that is build on very solid foundations, backed up by worldwide patents out to 2033, significant know-how, and currently no competitors anywhere near providing an alternative solution.

What would really set the price on fire is if GKN or Arrival made a strategic investment in TWD, then that £27 target price may start to look a bit on the low side!

This is all too reminiscent of early April's dodgy timing.

They had 2 x placings at 18p, one with the wife of the Zeus founder & boohoo, the other with II's. They raised about £8m just a couple of days before releasing the news they had been working on a rapid covid test since mid March. Why did they raise before they released the news???? Why not release it & then raise at £1? The placees have 10 bagged on news that should have been released to the market.

This time it's the CEO cashing in £500k of shares before they have released a product. Why not release the goddam product first and then cash in some shares at a higher price? Nobody would be complaining then!

This time next year once this is all over and the dust has settled, if AVCT haven't commercialised anything then some very serious questions need to be asked here.

It's got amazing potential, I'd say the perfect storm of low free float, a mix of director ownership & II's, a technology that nobody else can replicate with patents out to 2033, a landmark 3 year deal with Arrival worth up to £38m, but potentially a lot more if this is just for the first 10,000 UPS van that they have a contract for at present...

And add to that as you say the 14 NDA's under discussion, an exploding EV industry, aviation giants retiring old and inefficient models and looking to build new ones with better technology...

It really is a blue sky share. If they can continue to execute then anything is possible. It's also still crazily under the radar.

Lovely to see this bouncing back so quickly, they did their best to shake some shares free yesterday but didn't get many... :)

Possibly, but more likely down to PI's figuring out that the £38m contract signed last month was for Arrival, who received a $118m investment from Blackrock last week. TWD just said 'EV OEM' in their RNS as they are no doubt under NDA. From the other forum;

"It appears Edison accidentally disclosed the name of the EV OEM when first uploading their broker note to Research Tree.

Google "arrival trackwise design" scroll to the sixth result and you'll see the following text;

"Trackwise Designs - First series production order for IHT********************* › companies › research › edison
18 Sep 2020 — Management expects that the transition to volume production for Arrival will be followed by ramp-ups for customers in other sectors. Trackwise ..."

Click to read the article and 'volume production for Arrival' changes to 'volume production for EV OEM"...

Free float is miniscule here; only 22m shares in issue, of which 77% are owned by directors & II's
Philip Johnston (1) 6,688,394 30.25%
Octopus Investments 4,573,899 20.68%
Premier Miton Investors 2,024,213 9.15%
Unicorn Asset Management 1,666,667 7.54%
Richard Sneller 1,110,000 5.00%
Adare Sladen 855,424 3.87%

So we are fighting over just shy of 5m shares...

This is going to get interesting, churn at 0.08p and NT to buy once more than 2 buys come in. Don't think I've ever seen a sovereign wealth fund mentioned in this low a market cap before!

@jm4910, I completely agree with you, it has gone from being strange to downright ridiculous that a drug that showed such huge promise is being completely stonewalled in a time of crisis.

The question is what can we all do about it?

They released half year results a few weeks ago which showed cash of $9.2m at 30th June. As others have said they saved $3m from the small business waiver, which will extend their cash by at least 6 months. Bottom line is they easily have enough to get them to FDA approval, and by that point the share price should mean dilution will be minimal. This is a brilliant company which is still materially undervalued in the current environment!

“Delayed sell at 16:38:58 for 20k shares at 859. I'm sure it will open up above £9 on Monday.”

FFS this kind of chat really winds me up more than it should! The closing price is the uncrossing trade, period! Trades after that are delayed reports from earlier in the day, if the price has risen since they will be shown as sells, if it’s fallen they will be shown as buys! In reality we haven’t a clue, but it’s in the price so it’s irrelevant!

It’ll open well above 9 on Monday, wouldn’t even be surprised if we get close to 10 given the gap up we saw last week after a 10% + day.

The broker note is magnificent, and if each acquisition we make is accretive then that £34 moves up all the time. That’s how the big boys do it, the tricky part is managing to accrue hundreds of millions of pounds in the bank to use for the acquisitions!

Have a great weekend all, time to have a break from all things NCYT until Sunday evening.

50p paid, now it gets interesting...

Awesome! Very interested to see where this opens / performance today, surely it’s got to get towards £1 on that news?!

Excellent strategic acquisition, makes sense on so many levels. Positioning for global instrument sales!

Haha, @Jodrell yesterday morning you said;

"Pleased your confident, but how do you Know, it will be a good news day on Friday, you must know how skittish private investor s are, this causes the share price go up and down like a brides nightie."

You realise you are effectively talking about yourself here right? A skittish private investor who thinks the market knows something...

It's a classic MM squeeze at the moment, those that have invested too much of their portfolio will be under psychological pressure to sell, or those who just don't like to see their shares go down / want to take profit from lower down...

Whatever will be, will be. Also, as last weeks surprise mask delay showed, this isn't a leaky share from my experience.

Was close to buying in here, but my god, they have to have one of the most complicated balance sheets I've ever come across. Convertible loan, expensive long term debt, contingent fair value rights, contingent consideration, literally the lot. The net result being a £298m liability position on the balance sheet, which grew £17m in the half year to June & which is significant versus their market cap. They also have two additional liabilities relating to legal matters for material sums (totalling almost $20m) which aren't what you want to read.

The recent phase III results were undoubtedly exciting (and the P value significant), and I do really like the work the company is doing to enable treatment of terrible diseases, but as an investor it's tricky to get past the fact that they may well spend the next 2-3 years standing still financially, with the threat of any hiccup in the progress of their pipeline assets smashing the share price.

I feel the time to buy will be on FDA approval of FILSUVEZ, as that significantly de-risks AMYT financially and gives them a real critical mass of future revenues with which to grow their balance sheet & pipeline. Any opinions as to whether the above is way off the mark would be appreciated.