Member Info for ShearClass

@trilla1337, I disagree, the 2 x broker notes must have got some guidance from GM before coming out with any kind of specific revenue estimates. Why on earth would Numis specify €305m as a base case for 2020 if NCYT were going to miss this?! It would make them look stupid & be counter productive.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/investors-finally-get-a-steer-on-novacyts-earnings-potential

2nd June confirmed orders = £120m

DHSC contract minimum for first 14 weeks = £150m, so 12 weeks in 2020 = £128m

Do you really think that they haven't recognised any other revenue from orders made after 2nd June 2020?!

To me, this feels like a repeat of the early September situation where Voleon were shorting and the price was held in the £2.80-3.30 range. It is actually more bizarre given the current environment & what we already know about revenues & gross margins.

@ShaunP, the presentation available on following link may be of interest to you / your filebin work;
https://sourcebiointernational.com/reports-presentations/

Sourcebio listed on AIM in October and now have a market cap of £150m after rising 10% so far this morning. They have significant debt on their balance sheet (around £72m) so their enterprise value is around £220m today. Their main service is the provision of PCR test services, page 20 of their investor presentation shows how this grew from £1m revenue in May to £7m in September, providing a clear read across for NCYT & those who are worried that we may not have delivered revenue growth in these months...

Page 21 discloses that their half year revenue to 30th June were £10m with gross margins of 43%, so around 15% of NCYT half year results at an inferior margin. And obviously they didn't win a huge £406m tender in September, don't have international sales to 100+ countries & don't sell world class diagnostic devices... So why are they valued at a third of NCYT's current valuation (and that excludes our cash balance)?

I can only conclude that our current valuation is highly anomalous, I think a direct result of Euronext Paris listing + lack of disclosed French sales. To deliver the NUMIS base case revenue estimate of €305m revenue would effectively mean we had no other sales for the rest of 2020 beyond the 2nd June trading update (£120m of confirmed orders at 2nd June) + £150m DHSC minimum gives a total of €298m at current FX rates.

Even in the base case, the target share price is £9.50! In reality I expect a total of at least €400m, which would beat the estimates in the market by 30%. This would see all time highs & attract huge media attention. I’ve added significantly this morning, short term target price of £13.65.

@JonathanRoberts, I must say that your post is one of the most condescending I’ve ever seen on LSE. It also shows you have absolutely no idea about how business operates in the real world - individuals don’t need world class credentials to make a positive impact. Obviously you are one of those dinosaurs that would insist any graduate joining the business came from a red brick university and had straight A’s rather than consider personality & life experience?

Besides, why on earth does a company whose share price has risen from 13p to £8.50 in less than a year needs tons of PR?

"Gios - I'm with fsjc on this one and have heavily averaged down as a result over the past month."

I find it incredible that anyone would average down here, never mind heavily (presume that means more than doubling your initial capital investment?). The MO of Ciclitera is simple; pay himself an exorbitant salary, loan some of this cash back to the company, then convert this into shares to ensure that he retains a controlling stake in spite of all of the dilution that takes place.

Just a month ago he went one step further and 'awarded' himself £650k of shares for the introduction of a K-pop holding co. Why would a committed CEO give himself 6% of the company for arranging a deal? Isn't that what he gets paid his mega salary for?!

2 x MM's bidding at less than 4p a share at close today, sentiment is only going one way here. Sub 1p before long.

So re the April contract £63m
As at 31st December, Primerdesign has probably invoiced around 2M times £8.50 = £17m for Cambridge
Much lower than expected - hence the likely reason for no extension in November (not required)
2 Million / divided by 8 months (240 days) = 8,333 tests per day (poor, but why)
I was expecting 40K per day!

——————————

Confused by your comments here... the April RNS stated;

“The contract is in addition to the Company's collaboration with AstraZeneca, GSK and the University of Cambridge, announced on 8 April 2020, where Novacyt is committed to ensure an effective workflow process within the facility for COVID-19 testing, as well as provide its COVID-19 test to generate results data.”

The 2m tests at Cambridge aren’t connected to the £63m contract awarded by DHSC in April?

Yes I was in two minds last night about whether to buy RNLX on NASDAQ at £5.10 equivalent or wait for LSE to open this morning. Decided to wait & got some more at £4.88 so was happy with that.

The move up in the US is very interesting as up to now it’s been left behind in the huge genomics & precision medicine re-rate of the last few months. We currently sit 25% below the year high, and that’s in spite of delivering on Kantaro promises & hitting KidneyIntelX milestones.

The current price move makes me think that Mount Sinai revenue scale up is going very well &/or Kantaro testing revenue is going to exceed expectations.

What’s certain is that 2021 is a pivotal year for RENX; if they execute as well as they have in 2020 then it’s hard to imagine the LSE share price being below £10 this time next year...

There doesn’t need to be an RNS for a share price to move upwards... it’s all about supply and demand. End of August this was at 80p, then a huge number of shares were given to the market makers by Miton, driving the price downwards. Today this supply has been has exhausted, hence the bounce... and still 25% below 80p.

100% a buy, probably the same party that bought 400k at open yesterday morning too... As below, the reason this has been stuck is Premier Miton selling out. I actually think it's very impressive that it's held the 56-58p range given they sold 5.5m shares between mid October & mid December. They likely only have around 4m left now after the recent big buys, and when they are gone the price will rocket.

@Steve305, Premier Miton have been aggressively selling down their holding from 12% / 13.5m shares at the start of September to 4.87% / 5.5m shares as of Monday (as per yesterday's notification). That is the reason for the fall back from 80p & subsequent stagnation around 57p.

They are almost out now though, and theoretically could be taken out in one trade by another II.... I am fully loaded and ready for the re-rate. Potential 10 bagger over the next few years if they execute to plan...

Indeed Fuelcellinvestor - the main driver for such a re-rate are large new investors comparing the AFC market cap against CWR & ITM, and coming to the conclusion that there is huge upside here. Even at £1.50 a share we would only be at 50% of the current CWR valuation...

I bet the Wednesday sellers are feeling a bit silly now. The market makers have played this perfectly, a textbook re-rate so far.

My hidden gem is Cleanspark on the NASDAQ. Their main business focus is on software to control microgrids, and they expect to hit $20m in revenues next year.

Last week they acquired a bitcoin mining company for $19m and they intend to employ their microgrid software to reduce power consumption & increase efficiency etc. The win win is that they will use the results as a case study of what they can do whilst at the same time produce BTC (currently 2 BTC per day, which they hope to increase by fourfold by April). Current market cap is $370m, but this could rapidly increase given they are fairly unique in straddling crypto, green energy & SaaS.

https://www.cleanspark.com/

Do your own research / no investment advice obviously :)

Steadily heading upwards towards 50p again, I expect the big boys will be buying / adding to holdings now the dust has settled a bit & they have done some homework.

Great to read the investing success stories by the way, that's what it's all about!

I think the comments in reference to trading are because of how illiquid it is, a few consecutive buys can send this up 20% in a matter of minutes as we saw a few weeks ago. A very positive RNS, there is clearly value here. Happy to hold as I think they are worth a lot more than £15m, but they definitely need to get some forecasts out to the market & do some PR off the back of this!

It doesn't matter what the news is, there will always be profit takers! Back in September Novacyt announced they had won a £150m government contract which was half their market cap at the time & for the first couple of days the price only rose 5%, there were sellers galore. However, within 2 weeks the price had more than doubled - more fool the sellers. The same thing could quite easily happen here in my opinion based on the recent moves in CWR & ITM, as well as the US EV market.

The logic of holding the price at this level is that the Market Makers know they will get profit takers & they can use these shares to fill large orders, if they took it up too quickly it would attract more buying and make things more unbalanced. Once the books are balanced the move up will begin.

The interview was excellent, it looks like the ABB deal is just the start :)

There were 173m shares in issue when the share price spike to 70p+ at the end of 2010, weird that it's almost 10 years to the day since that rise. The market cap then was £120m or so, versus £300m today with 676m shares in issue. It really is still a tiddler though compared to the likes of Plug Power ($11b), but surely today's news puts AFC on the same page as PLUG, given the scale of the partnership?

Kudos to the long term holders, this must feel like a very sweet day.

The off grid element is the key attraction here, there is one other listed off grid solutions that I'm aware of which is listed on the NASDAQ (Beem Global), but their solution is quite clunky and I question how well it can scale. There is no such question with the AFC solution!

Worth re-reading the press release from 6th December 2019 when this product was launched;

https://www.afcenergy.com/afc-energy-launches-zero-emission-h-powertm-ev-charger-system/

Key advantages of the H-Power TM EV Charger, including:

- Recharging with Net-Zero emissions;

- Modular and rapid charge ready;

- Removes or delays the need for costly grid augmentation and upgrades;

- Provides a de-risked solution allowing car park operators to respond rapidly to growing EV demand;

- Can be operated completely off grid or in conjunction with grid power; and

- Scalable from 2 to over 100 charge points at a single site with limited increase in footprint.

The RNS this morning is an absolute shambles and I wouldn't touch this with a bargepole at present, it's effectively a convertible loan & all it will serve to do is drive down the share price. The bottom line is that if this investor had desperately wanted to get involved they would have made a strategic investment at yesterday's closing price, not drip feed a few million every 3 months with a discounted VWAP agreement that skews everything in their favour.

Bought 25k for a log term hold - this is the type of validation that you want to see before committing to a company for a long period of time. Huge valuation gap between AFC & UK peers, nevermind those across the pond!

@Badboxer, it's conceivable this could 10 bag from here...so even a small amount from that entry price could make a lot of money :)