Member Info for ShearClass

I did some research yesterday comparing share price, market cap & hash rate of Argo, Riot, Hive, Marathon & Hut8.

- Hive is the most expensive of listed miners when comparing hash rate to market cap, followed by Riot (although Riot are expanding their hash rate dramatically).

- Marathon are undergoing an insane expansion of hash rate, and recently ordered 70,000 mining machines from Bitmain... https://www.marathonpg.com/news/press-releases/detail/1218/marathon-patent-group-purchases-70000-s-19-asic-miners They aim to have 10EH by year and and mine 55-60 BTC a day, if this happens and BTC maintains it's current price level then they are cheap at £1.2b

- Hut8 has a similar market cap to Argo, but has 3007 BTC held on it's balance sheet so is a more leveraged bet on BTC prices than Argo that holds only 200ish. They also just raised CA$77m so significantly more than here.

An interesting landscape for sure, but if investing for 1 year + my order of preference would be Hut8, Mara, Argo, Riot, Hive. Clearly this time last month Argo would have been head and shoulders above the rest but not now it's 7 bagged...

The volatility on offer if BTC dropped back to 20k would be something to behold!

Re. LSE not AIM, it really doesn't matter, it's the UK / European attitude towards growth capital that is the relevant point!

I predict in about 90 mins we are going to see the difference in attitude between AIM & the US towards raising growth capital. OTC listing closed at £1.07 equivalent on Friday, are they really going to treat ARB as if it's worth 15% less than it was because it raised $30m to significantly expand it's capacity? I don't think so. Market Makers are currently holding the price to deter buyers / encourage sellers prior to the 2.30pm open.

Thanglan, what baseless scaremongering...

From a 2 second google

https://news.sky.com/story/interactive-investor-bolsters-scale-with-swoop-for-eqi-12190674

As per yesterday, they were rumoured to be on the verge of buying a smaller rival for £50m, you wouldn't be doing that if you had any cash issues. Far more likely to be integration bugs / maintenance.

Maybe do some research before posting crap in future...

@Junior2020, Numis have a £50 per share bull target if P3 succeeds & SNG execute the roll out of the treatment around the world. 100k treatments manufactured per month @ £2k per treatment = £200m a month revenue at a likely 70% gross margin. If this pivotal trial produces results like the previous one the returns here will be life changing...

WFT are PI's doing paying 14p for this? Does anyone do any research anymore?

https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/nightcap/

"The initial 25 million shares in Nightcap were issued for 2p each and last month 14.9 million shares were issued at 5p each. That raised £1.24m and there was a loss of £256,000 up until the end of November."

So paying 200% more than pre IPO investors did in November...

"The annual board remuneration is £550,000 before any bonuses and pension contributions. Non-executive Tobias van der Meer will not initially be paid a fee.

The directors’ remuneration is high considering the size of the operating business and the fact that it is losing money. Nightcap will need to do other deals to justify this level of remuneration."

"There is potential litigation with a corporate finance adviser that was hired to help sell London ****tail Club. A buyer was not found, and the engagement was ended on 16 June. The adviser believes it should be paid its success fee for the acquisition by Nightcap.

Some of the vendors of the business have indemnified Nightcap if the fee is payable, along with related costs."

So many red flags nevermind the continuing uncertainty around Covid...

It really is @Harchris. Also what is ironic is that it’s so far out of touch with reality on AIM. Companies that churn out PR & release ‘pumpy’ RNS’s hardly ever deliver on their hype. AVCT is a prime example of this, check the comms pre placing last May & compare them to what has happened since. ‘Strategic communication’ on AIM is normally used to drag in PI’s pre placing. Good companies don’t need to bother with such unscrupulous behaviour, they just let their financials do the talking.

Mr Berg has a very obvious case of sour grapes, I’d imagine he looked in here last year and decided it looked expensive at £3 or got spiked in October in the £12 range and is desperate to get his money back. No sane individual would be questioning management in such a derogatory way otherwise.

@Walshberg, you are chatting utter twaddle again. It’s neither ethical nor professional for a diagnostics company to be actively self promoting to get its share price higher in the midst of a global pandemic.

And to even suggest that management need to do more for the share price is beyond the pale in my opinion, I mean this time last year the price was 13p for gods sake! So a 65x rise in 12 months & 180% rise in 4 months isn’t good enough? What planet are you on? There is only one ‘wood duck’ as far as I’m concerned, it’s sitting inside your head!

Another day closer to results - all good with me. Re. doing an investor roadshow, why would they ever bother doing something like that mid pandemic when they have more cash than they know what to do with? Extract below from the times article in May last year;

"It has all presented an unexpected concern for Mr Mullis, whose main worry before the pandemic was raising enough funding. Now, those beating a path to his door include prospective investors. Now is not the time to consider the interest, he said. “We’ve pushed most of that interest away for the moment and just been focused on the business. Today has been about how we support what is going on.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/big-rewards-for-the-small-player-who-saw-virus-coming-zcm0nqnf9

So you know that it will be worth over £12 when the masses become aware of the earnings (in less that 3 weeks), however the fact they don't right now, but you do, is a reason to change the management? How does that even come close to making sense!? Truly beyond belief that you spent time typing that tripe...

Morning HarChris, yes I bet a few of the early sells were PI's chasing ARB... I missed their RNS on 29th Dec saying they were going to be listing on the US OTC market, but even then I think to myself that I wouldn't have put much in and would almost certainly have sold when it doubled. Crazy move though from early November!

I think the fall here is down to bored PI's selling + some shorting in France, just as we saw in September. I feel comfortable in NCYT, it's a share that is underpinned by the strongest fundamentals on AIM. The fact that SourceBio is now up to £165m market cap (£237m EV) and we are £592m (EV TBC, but likely we have >£100m net cash?) is mad. They are potentially at 50% of our EV with very likely less than 10% of our EBITDA. That disconnect won't continue for much longer in my opinion.

Radio silence?! There was an RNS 10 trading days ago... did you not see it? Or do you want a daily operational update?

Anyone that is concerned simply needs to look at the share price in early September, then think how you would have felt a month later if you had sold at £3! It's currently being shaken both ways to try and get PI's to part with their shares - yesterday a rise up to £9 after an early morning dip to £8.50, today the opposite.

As for constant PR to reassure, surely you are joking?

Cheers donmac, SBI is interesting with the Christopher Mills connection but I prefer NCYT at present given their comparative valuations...they should clear £300m revenue at 70% EBITDA margin and only have a £600m market cap.

9 x £20k buys from 8.21 to 8.34... the accumulation for the month end update looks to have begun!

Guess who posted the below back in the summer? Price here at the time was £2.87, AVCT £1.40

WHERE’S THE UPSIDE?!

Absolute comedy. 6 months on and about 2000 posts later, AVCT is lower than it was back then, Nova is + 210%, yet still he thinks he knows best...

“RE: If we beat AVCT to saliva testing...27 Jul 2020 09:48
I agree RBM it's an IF but look around at all the Covid stocks. There's a lot of 'Ifs' out there but that's why so many of them are so cheap. NCYT has very few 'Ifs' and that's why the share price has such little scope for sudden rises. This is now a £2.50-£3 stock.
Where's the upside? I can see plenty of potential downside mind IF other tests to come to the fore.”

Very nice news & move so far, FDA approval & confirmation of initial test uptake in Mount Sinai are still priorities for me, but this is an exciting development - in particular 'The collaboration is expected to launch in three major markets this year'.

"If full year Profits are in line with the half year report at €100mil, then that’s £90mil."

Why would full year profits be in line with the half year report when that was issued before the DHSC contract with an initial minimum of £150m revenue?! I'm all for being prudent & don't believe any Twitter figures quoting £1b etc, however I actually think it's almost as daft to claim full year EBITDA could be £90m!

Last post from me for a while as it's a pointless debate beyond a certain point. We'll all know the answer in the next 18 trading days.

@Trilla1337 in the half year report they said;

"Visibility of orders for the Company's COVID-19 product portfolio suggests H2 2020 performance on track to exceed that of H1 2020"

"Full year revenues are expected to exceed €150 million and EBITDA profitability to exceed €100 million"

This was 2 weeks before the DHSC contract RNS on 29th September which stated;

"This first phase of the contract will involve the immediate deployment of 300 PCR instruments, related kits and support services with a minimum value of £150 million for the first 14 weeks."

The market is pricing currently revenue at £200m or lower at present, but the above statements from RNS releases back up 95% the Numis base case of €305m.

As for them updating the market if they were going to hit £400m, surely this is the explicit purpose of the January trading update? Why would they need to release an RNS to say 'we are providing an update to say that in advance of the trading update on xx Jan 2021 sales are going to be £400m'?

@Jungla, very valid point. However, I don't even think the current share price represents even £200m at a 68% EBITDA margin... particularly when you compare it to the likes of SourceBio (now £155m cap). This is the reason I referenced early September when the price was around £3; on this board we already knew half year revenues were €70m but the rest of the market were clearly unaware. If we hit the base case estimate of €305m, the share price isn't staying at £8.70. It's one of the reasons I love the fact GM keeps his cards close to his chest, it presents incredible opportunities for PI's...