Member Info for shakeypremis

Two things Hardy78, while it is clear MAFL are sitting on a substantial resource (albeit in the Indicated and Inferred categories which mean economic viability of the resource has not yet been established); a) how have you come to the $1.5B figure? b) how much is the resource worth to MAFL? Regarding b), MAFL's 29/06 'Final Results for the Year to 31 December 2016' RNS can give us some idea of what it might be worth to them; https://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5575664 "The LS-1 resource is 4.5Mt of mineralization with a zinc equivalent grade of 8.1% That equates to 297,000 tonnes of zinc equivalent metal. The LS-1 resource is currently also being drilled with the intention of expanding the resource mineralization to between 8.0Mt and 10.0Mt. TH Crestgate believes that, if successful, the resource expansion should be at similar grades although at this stage there can be no guarantee that the zinc can be economically extracted. However, in 2016, transactions of individual zinc rich mining projects occurred at a mean valuation of US$75.74 per tonne of zinc equivalent metal, while the median value is US$10.83 p/t of zinc equivalent metal. To look at it another way, a group of 31 junior mining companies with zinc-rich resources, comparable to Lagoa Salgada, currently trade at a mean valuation of US$50.21 p/t of zinc equivalent metal, while the median value is US$14.78 p/t of zinc equivalent metal." If we take the mean value of $75.74 p/t of zinc-equivalent that comparable zinc-rich resources have been transacted at, for a resource of 297,000 tonnes of zinc-equivalent we get the following; 297,000t Zn-eq x $75.74 = $22,494,780 (not including any costs) - yes the Zinc and price of the other metals involved is higher than it was during 2016. 49% of this figure is $11,022,442 (again not including any costs). Hopefully the resource upgrade will be very substantial so any sale of the resource can achieve this number or better.

The plant is absolutely not a freight container. They are going to be doing some processing of the ore to produce a CONCENTRATE. Either you haven't researched this company very well or you are lying. They are building a plant to process the ore.

I can't find it. Would you be so kind as to post the link please?

Do you have a link please Pomme?

Cannons - I will take the company's figures thanks very much. For what it's worth, I hope you are right. There is a lot that can make this project MORE profitable in the future. It's only in a trial mining stage at present. Increase REE prices, decreased discounts, increased efficiencies, processing plants, more mine sites being developed for better economies of scale etc.

I've neglected to subtract the OPEX costs in my below calcs, these should now be accurate: My own calculations at present are as follows for the base case scenario of 250 tonnes of concentrate produced per month. 250,000kg concentrate x basket price ~$16/kg = $4,000,000 $4,000,000 - discount rate of max 73% = $1,080,000 $1,080,000 - Government royalty of 4% (Q2 Investor Presentation) - marketing costs 3.5% (Q2IP) = $1,036,800 $1,036,800 - Transport costs of $200/tonne = $1,036,800 - ($200 x 250) = $986,800 $986,800 - OPEX costs of $810/tonne (Q2IP) = $784,300 $784,300 - Corporation tax rate of 35% = $509,795 Base case it looks like this operation might make around $500,000 per month or $6m per year to begin with.

My own calculations at present are as follows for the base case scenario of 250 tonnes of concentrate produced per month. 250,000kg concentrate x basket price ~$16/kg = $4,000,000 $4,000,000 - discount rate of max 73% = $1,080,000 $1,080,000 - Government royalty of 4% (Q2 Investor Presentation) - marketing costs 3.5% (Q2IP) = $1,036,800 $1,036,800 - Transport costs of $200/tonne = $1,036,800 - ($200 x 250) = $986,800 $986800 - Corporation tax rate of 35% = $641,420 Base case it looks like this operation might make around $640,000 per month or $7.7m per year to begin with. The costs from the Q2 Investor Presentation were from the Competent Person's Report and I have been informed by the company that they are not Rainbow's own estimates which I can only presume might be lower. How much so I don't know. All in all a very profitable operation if I've not made any glaring errors.

I get OPEX costs of $1090/tonne of concentrate from page 23 of the Q2 investor presentation. Corporate tax rate in Burundi is 30% - 35% (I think rainbow will have to pay 35%).

Sigh. Have you read the final results RNS?? https://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5690406 Under the section titled 'BUSINESS RISKS' the discount rate of "up to 73%" is detailed there. "The Company produces rare earth mineral concentrate which is sold at a market price less a discount (negotiated with each customer). Rare earth prices have been volatile in the past. If the underlying rare earth basket price falls, this reduces revenue and will impact the profitability of the mine. The current discount rate is expected to be between 68-73%, however this may vary with new customers or as terms are renegotiated."

No they won't. There is a discount to the basket price. Look at the final results RNS.

Goldust88, you need to look at the amount of concentrate produced and multiply that by the basket price per kg (which we can only really guess at at the minute, circa $16/kg) then multiply that amount by the discount ratio which is about 0.7.

The advertised spread should not be used to determine whether a trade is a buy or a sell. When a trade is classified as a buy or a sell a computer is simply looking at the mid price of the spread and classifying anything under it a sell and anything over a buy. It's not manipulation or games.

1. Nothing wrong with picks and shovels - the mining area is difficult to access and labour is cheap hence this method is fine 2.The money does not go to the Burundian government first - receipts in dollars brought in to the country have to go to a foreign currency account and the Burundian Central Bank rather than at a foreign currency account at a Burundian bank. They will then have to be converted to Burundian Francs making access to foreign currency difficult potentially. However Rainbow can probably get around this by simply opening foreign currency accounts at commercial banks outside Burundi and only transferring the in the dollars they need or perhaps even convert to Francs outside of the Burundian system entirely.

I believe if you read back further - even to the IPO documenattion - they always did plan to mine manually. Whether or not that decision was based then on a lack of fuel or whether they decided manual mining would actually be best I don't know. But it's not been decided based on recent news releases detailing the fuel shortage in Burundi.

LeapFrog, have you read anywhere that the reason they are using wheelbarrows and shovels is because they can't get fuel for heavy machinery or have you just assumed that?

It would appear from today's rns that Rainbow are going to be producing much more concentrate per unit time than originally thought. It could be DOUBLE previous estimates. Previous estimates were 3338 tonnes of concentrate over 22 months so 151 tonnes per month. Now they estimate a minimum of 2250 tonnes of concentrate over 9 months or 250 tonnes per month. Upper estimates are 333 tonnes per month. Looks like they've got $3 million in cash left too.

It would seem we have a buyer collecting 250k chunks of shares over the past few days. Where this stock is coming I don't know.

I can deal with that 162. As you say, $43 is a very nice price at the present time anyway.

... ghost town. Do do-doo do-do doooo

Berkeley have offtake contracts in place at $40 (or something slightly higher from memory). The CEO said while he was at an investor symposium in Manchester earlier in the year that a rising (or falling for that matter) uranium spot price does not feed in to profitability in the way some might expect due to the 'collar and tails' (or something like that) nature of the supply contracts. A percentage is fixed at the circa $40 amount and the rest can be affected by increases or decreases in spot price of uranium. So yes, an increasing uranium price will help BKY's profitability but not to the same extent that some are perhaps hoping here. FWIW, I am invested here.