Member Info for shakeypremis

Waiting for the last drill in South Disouq to keep the company pumping at 50mmscf/d until only 2023/2024? Really? Who would wait that long and manipulate the share price just for that? At the moment, other than the Young prospect, there aren't any other official targets in South Disouq and they let the southern concession go.

For avoidance of doubt, I am very long here lol and have also been here for years. I just don't think SD in it's current state (which is not shabby at all) is any reason to do what you suggest to try to take over SDX.

Also if you think someone has been doing this for years they can't have been buying shares as we'd know about it as they would be on the register. No sign of that at all. If they've been doing it since the low of 12p recently there's no way they could get enough shares.

Last week is likely just a large order going through for some entity that wants a nice little stake in SDX. Could even be Waha etc increasing their position.

The in-ground gas value at Sobhi isn't much more than than the price IPR would have to pay to buy in. The money to buy in is justifiably more valuable to them in the near term rather than several years in the future. However, if they had buckets of cash it would certainly make sense to buy in.

SDX can't just buy IPR's stake. IPR will have to put it up for sale.

Impossible to say why, they participated in Salah and that was a dud. Maybe they didn't think it was worth it to participate in Sobhi based on previous result. More likely they are indeed strapped for cash and don't want risk running out of money later in the year/further on. As an unlisted company we can't really find out how they are doing.

Even with 150k shares sold in last two reported sell trades, still no shares to buy.

IPR, SDX's 45% partner (and non-operator) in South Disouq have 60 days from declaration of commercial development to back in to discovery at Sobhi. To do so they have to pay US$4.1m. I'm not sure whether that 60 days is from discovery or successful flow test. Either way, latest date for back in would appear to be approximately 24th June. After that SDX will get a 100% working interest in the gas from Sobhi.

IPR may well be distressed at the current oil price and will probably elect to not back-in. Given the in-ground value of the gas isn't too much more (in percentage terms) than the cost to back-in. That's what you get for not taking the risk up front.

Still demand out there (can sell everything I've got for 19.5p) and my dummy buys are now not getting a quote.

I'm not sure we are quite there yet in terms of companies being quite distressed enough to dump assets on the cheap or significant numbers of companies actually going bust. A lot of companies are hedged currently. It may be Q3/Q4 this year that we really start to see distress in the oil producers/developers.

Not sure a bigger picture chart is particularly relevant at the moment but I will analyse what I've got and see if there is anything.

Shell's mature Egypt assets may be a good fit for SDX. They seem to be decent at milking mature fields for all they are worth. But I am sure many others are after assets from Shell on the cheap and SDX don't really have much money at the moment. Debt financing is obviously a possibility if you can get a bank to give it to you in the current climate. I don't want to see dilution at anything like the current prices.

There does seem to be some decent demand around. A large buy order behind the scenes perhaps, or maybe the sell side has just dried up and mm's raising the bid to get some stock. Who knows.

Chart showing resistance at possibly ~18.5p and then definitely at ~20p. There is also a gap lower that will probably have to get filled at some point. So probably back down to 15.3p before any rise through those resistance zones.

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_1a625bf00195589c7754136340871be6.png

Also important to point out that this company isn't really an oil company any more (at the moment at least) as it produces mostly fixed-price natural gas.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PTAL/tr-1-notification-of-major-holdings-di4iupi7p2cevc3.html

No amount of 100k buys will stop the MM's from lowering the bid.

Possibility of PeruPetro getting permission to lower royalty rates to stop production decline in Peru.

https://larepublica.pe/politica/2020/04/20/peru-caida-del-precio-del-petroleo-afecta-la-economia-el-empleo-y-el-canon/

Holding up well today despite the further malaise and the crashing oil prices. Maybe this will be the turning point. Knowing SDX I doubt it but just maybe...

Hi South

Indeed not. I just don't see from the article any indication that SDX is part of the consortium mentioned seems to be exclusively the three companies mentioned. The wording and grammar of the article indicates there are no other members.

However, as you say, it is entirely possible SDX could be interested in some of Shell's legacy assets. SDX could certainly raise debt to acquire something material to their current production numbers.

Well I don't hear mention of another consortium other than the one you mention.

"A consortium of Cairn Energy Plc, Pharos Energy Plc and Egypt’s Cheiron Petroleum..."

Which doesn't mention SDX... So no? lol

Do you have a link for this information?

I don't believe SDX will be drilling Young this year. Their partner already elected to not participate in Sobhi and I suspect have indicated they aren't interested in Young at this stage likely due to the low oil price knocking them for six. So don't get your hopes up of striking it big at Young any time soon as I very much doubt that SDX are going to drill it without their partner. They seem to have stopped talking about it too.

SDX is a very well run business from a financial aspect. They have extended reserve life in Morocco and will hopefully do the same in Egypt if Sobhi flows so they can afford to be patient.

It's been updated again. Averaging just over 9K bopd but that's with several days of 0.

I don't know personally. You could try emailing SDX, although they have never bothered to reply to me about anything.

https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Producci%C3%B3n+l%C3%ADquidos.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos

This website isn't showing updated figures for production anymore. Am I using the wrong link?

It's actually not. These type of spikes happen often with good news releases from SDX. It then ends up giving it all back. Looks like it will this time too. Gap in the chart and much lower price to sell any decent amount of stock indicating few buyers.