Member Info for shakeypremis

Upward trend broken (to the downside of course). Next support 20p possibly?

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_daee9979ce2ba91772e71cb5697ac1c3.png

Despite being a majority gas producer on fixed-price, long-term contracts, this is getting battered along with majority oil producers.

Very briefly, the incubation and asymptomatic period where the person is infectious can be as long as 20+ days. Combine that with an R0 (number of people on average that an infected person will additionally infect - dependent on lots of factors of course) is something like 4+, which is very high. We could just be seeing the tip of the iceberg.

The Chinese data is not reliable and is likely understating the impact. Data from other countries such as Singapore is more reliable.

Anyway, we'll see and I hope I am wrong.

I'll post my reasoning later Mr B.

I am going to stick my neck out and say that this coronavirus is going to evolve in to a global pandemic that will end up killing millions. I won't go in to why I think this but we'll find out if I am correct I suppose.

If it does go this way, markets and oil markets are going to get smashed. SDX now get's the large majority of its cashflow from fixed-price gas contracts. As long as they keep getting paid (which isn't a given - Egypt could stop paying and Moroccan customers may draw less gas etc). But they won't be affected in terms of cashflow by the oil price (not saying that the share price won't get smashed like everything else - the market is irrational).

In summary, SDX could be in a very good position to capitalise on distressed oil and gas assets in the near term. Another circle oil or better could be just down the road.

PI's and traders selling shares and smaller institutions/funds (that don't hold enough to report) selling I imagine. It is true that the free float is slowly shrinking.

MI Select Managers UK Equity Account fund has bought up 450,000 shares at some point in January by the looks of things. 0.22% of all outstanding shares.

https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/stocks/ownership.aspx?t=0P000182NM&lang=en-CA

Another large spread has developed. 21.6p to sell, 22.8p to buy.

Another ~0.5% (~1,000,000 shares) of the company off the free float. She must have paid about 23p for them. She has links (is the wife of) another significant shareholder, Mr Nikolaos D Monoyios. Wouldn't be surprised to see another RNS saying he's bought some too.

Add that to AXA too, who took another 350,000 shares in January too.

GGP is potentially sitting on a gold mine (literally), so it's current share price (and therefore market cap) is an attempt to value the future NPV (net present value) of the mine. So you're not doing a like for like comparison there. A better comparison is SDX and UKOG which is now valued a little lower than SDX despite being a company with no hope, tin-pot assets and a steady stream of dilution.

Almost as low as it was just prior to the SD production announcement.

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_711e82bbb3ef834a7a64ae45521f30cc.png

Still, I thought it would come back down to these levels. Written in the stars as it were. You can't fight the trend.

Has bought another 350,000 shares since the beginning of January;

https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/stocks/ownership.aspx?t=0P000182NM&lang=en-CA

This fund now holds 3.67% of all SDX shares.

Have to pay this to buy and can sell any number of shares (large/small amount) but they're only offering 23.2p.

Squelcho was full of crap.

This is yet another gift share price. It's like SD isn't online and there have been no successful drills in Morocco. Take advantage.

A drop was always on the cards. I would read too much in to it personally. The oil price carnage most likely has contributed too (not that SDX is primarily an oil company anymore, but since when was the market - particularly AIM - rational?).

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_235e1c16eb0e31d5adb84ec069e1fa8d.png

Bit further to go and bit further to fall probably. 50 day moving average may provide support or may fall further to close the tiniest of gaps at approximately 22.5p.

You should have more or less known everything Mark has said was the expected outcome of the drilling programmes well before today.

Also, I don't really call a doubling or tripling of reserves and a doubling of production lifespan with one round of drilling shabby. I think it's pretty good. What if they manage the same in another year or two?

It's not like two of them weren't expected.

1. NW Gemsa, becoming less economic by the day and has been known about for ages.
2. South Ramadan - slightly disappointed here as thought it may be worth something. Looks like it'll be a net loss for them now.
3. South South-Disouq - also disappointing but time got the better of them and they haven't discovered anything down there like they have in the North so I guess they're not too bothered. Maybe they can get it back in the future if they want it.

Regarding the South Disouq southern concession, this was in the latest RNS;

"The above impairments have no impact on the Company's future cash flows or growth potential".

Not that you can trust company management teams, but this seemingly states they don't see much future value in the concession anyway. Presumably they can get it back again if they really want it?

Another one of those strange situations where I can sell my shares (and all of them for that matter) for a higher price than I get quoted to buy a piffling amount.

Bloody morons. Paid bloody morons at that!