Member Info for shakeypremis

You need to look at costs of production at NW Gemsa rather than revenue. The cost of producing a barrel at NW Gemsa is going up with increasing water cut. So given they think it might become uneconomic in 2020 each barrel is probably marginally profitable right now. An increase in the oil price will help keep it going a bit longer. So I expect that some losing NW Gemsa is obviously not going to be ideal, the impact on PROFITS is not going to be much and SD should offset this and is already producing at 35mmcf/d and already producing cash.

Just in case you've got the wrong end of the stick, we aren't really talking about that pipeline, we are talking about a proposed pipeline from the port of Jorf Lasfar which will supposedly tie in to the existing pipeline (you've referenced) around the area where SDX's Lalla Mimouna assets are located.

Apologies if you already know that's what were referring to.

I don't think my comment says I believe anything. It looks like this proposed pipeline and plant are official Moroccan Government plans (whether they happen or not is another question), and given the location of the proposed pipeline it's interesting to postulate how SDX *might* make use of this etc.

I don't flat out believe anything I read or hear, and don't call me Sarah... lol

The pipeline is even closer than I thought.

Yes that seems to be it's purpose. Connecting it to the Maghreb-Europe pipeline also implies that they'll send some of that imported gas in to Europe possibly. Why else would you connect it?

This is the link that mentions the LNG facility, didn't include it earlier by mistake;

http://northafricapost.com/25676-morocco-to-renew-gas-supply-deals-with-algeria.html

Very rough map of pipelines;

https://ibb.co/8XxhZfk

Any one who followed Sound would likely know about this new proposed pipeline but I didn't follow them so it was news to me.

I have been trying to work out exactly what SDX might be up to regarding it's Moroccan gas projects. Given they aren't experiencing a great deal of demand for gas locally, how would the value of some larger/large gas finds be realised?

Well, aside from the possibility of bottling the gas and selling in to the Moroccan market I've discovered there are some plans afoot to build a LNG plant in the port of Jorf Lasfar on Morocco'as Atlantic coast (JL is south-west of Kenitra) and this new LNG terminal will be connected to the existing Maghreb-Europe pipeline which passes from Algeria in the Northern Morocco and then across the straight of Gibraltar to Spain. This line would likely go somewhere near to SDX's Lalla Mimouna assets (where incidentally they are hoping to open up a whole new area) and thus SDX's wells could link in to it to either sell in to Europe via a link in to the Mahgreb-Europe pipeline or perhaps go the other way to the LNG terminal or even to satellite facilities along this Jorf Lasfar to Mahgreb-Europe pipeline to sell in to Morocco locally. I've drawn a little map which I will upload later.

If I understand some of the articles below correctly, Morocco will be assuming ownership of the Mahgreb-Europe pipeline in 2021 too.

https://www.mapcustomizer.com/map/SDX's%20Moroccan%20ambitions

https://images.worldenergynews.com/images/maritime/tendrara-licence-44035.jpg - Jorf Lasfar pipeline and Mahgreb-Europe pipeline picture.

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2018/10/254656/morocco-ownership-gas-pipeline-algeria-europe/

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2018/10/254656/morocco-ownership-gas-pipeline-algeria-europe/

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2019/06/275785/algeria-gas-pipeline-provides-45-of-moroccan-gas-consumption/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maghreb%E2%80%93Europe_Gas_Pipeline

Whatever that means. Surely it can't be a sale of SDX's stake to a company as the field isn't economic. It might well be economic to the Egyptian government though. Perhaps they mean a sale of their stake to them? I doubt very much they'll get much for it though as the EGPC will have them over a barrel.

That make sense, I thought you may have been referring to SD CAPEX only.

Daft63, are you referring to total CAPEX across all of SDX's assets and exploration programmes? I can't find that in the presentation.

Nberzins, I expect cash to be higher as the last capex for SD was paid with outstanding receivables balances. In fact a good proportion of SD capex was paid for with receivables.

It's an automated system. No one is disguising the trades. Whether a trade is reported as a buy or a sell depends on what price the trade went through at and the mid-price (mid point between current quoted spread). If a trade goes through below the mid point it's reported as a sell. Above and it gets reported as a buy.

Thanks a lot man. Would really appreciate it as I'd love to hear what is said.

Long shot I know and asking a lot, I can't make the call as in a meeting at work. Is anyone able to take a recording please?

Sorry, Harts, not Daft63.

daft63, if you're going to be on the call can you also ask what's the max capacity of the trunk line the SD pipe plugs in to as that an go in with your CPF question.

I will ask what price they get for condensate and what the costs are per barrel.

I will also ask what they hope to recoup in total in cost recovery in South Disouq.

Give it time my pretties, give it time.

That said it won't go up in a straight line though.

Maybe Edision are summing a slightly higher plateau rate or understand the value of the condensate better than I do. Perhaps they are also including cost recovery too.