Member Info for shakeypremis

Just thought I would go back and say, 'I told ya so'.

If Edision's forecast for SDX's 2021 YE cash balance is correct (and there 2019 YE cash balance estimate wasn't), then SDX is currently being valued at US4m more than the forecast 2021 YE cash balance of approximately US$40m.

Likely Edison's forecast will prove to be wrong one way or the other but does give some indication of low valuation here given current cashflows. Let's hope Morocco demand doesn't get impacted. I am fully expecting some kind of impact.

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/fy20-guidance-reflecting-increased-production/26051/

It's down 30%! Now that may rebound somewhat but still. Get ready for more pain here despite SDX being a majority gas producer and thus well insulated.

They certainly will have a problem in Egypt if they can't find more gas. One silver lining to the recent Egypt drill was that the well wasn't dry.

I think it's almost certain that SDX are going to exit this asset this year now. There is likely to be an ongoing low price for oil for some time and the asset just isn't going to be producing any profits. This is going to result in a significant drop in daily barrels, BUT those barrels barely make any money. The market at large isn't going to take that in to account though and will just irrationally sell off SDX. This is going to provide yet another very good buying opportunity.

The valuation here could get extremely silly over the coming months.

Entirely correct. There could easily be a drop in demand in Morocco and Egypt may also decide to not pay for gas for a while. It would be short term (highly likely) and SDX would not go bust. Obviously, the share price would take a massive hit though.

Conversely, there are O&G companies out there with heavy debt burdens, many with assets that aren't producing and of the ones that are, many wont have fixed-price contracts in place, certainly not for oil. There will be hedging going on but there are going to be lots of distressed companies going forward and SDX is well placed to pick up something for a bargain price. I am sure SDX/Waha/Ingalls are looking.

Yes unlikely to affect the company all that much, especially medium term. However, that doesn't mean the price won't be affected (it already has been). Thankfully I held off buying more. This looks like it is going lower still - somehow! Haven't been able to get a dummy sell quote for days now (for any amount of shares). You can buy right now just under 18p.

Yes that is correct. He claimed demand was greater than actually currently existed and also that forecast sales would be higher. We don't really know the exact reasons behind his departure but that surely must form part of it.

As this is SDX, the RNS has not been well received. De-risking and proving up a new area in Morocco means nothing to the fickle, emotional and terminally short-sighted AIM investor as there will be no additional production and cashflow for some time in to the future. Additionally, any drill failure SDX makes is sold off much harder than any success is bought. Classic.

Not that I want to sell any of my shares but it's currently not possible to sell anything. I am lining up a buy for a few more but looks like I might get a better price if I wait a while.

Buy more shares.

No idea. Don't know much about Sound.

SDX SPV Ltd is a special purpose vehicle owned by the Abu Dahbi based Waha Capital. It used to be called MEA Energy Ltd but they changed the name. Waha Capital, along with Ingalls and Snyder (the entity owning shares through them is unknown) basically run the company.

Despite the decimation, no chatter on the boards. Has everyone who held SDX died from the coronavirus?

Seriously though, I think the lack of posts - especially given the absolute carnage - is absolutely indicative that this stock is not held by the average AIM punter.

Hoped I'd never have to restart my UKOG watch thread but UKOG is once again, a more valuable company than SDX.

SDX: ~£40m
UKOG: ~£44m

Strong support level at current price but if that goes, could re-test 16p again. Absolute madness.Bugger all selling too. Just like last year. None of the big holders sold any shares and they very likely still aren't. I'm going to have to back up the truck soon. This is just a gift.

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_96b6de77de7edaf6c8f7580c1cf20a40.png

It's going up because it's not SDX.

I view this as a good contrarian indicator. No doubt AIM mug investors have sold out based on his decision.

i Hertstrader

Not quite sure I get what you're trying to say.

Cheers

I think a bid is just as likely as Waha using SDX as a vehicle to acquire distressed assets in the North Africa/Middle East region during a brutal slump in oil prices.

Yes, and SDX along with it. Despite the fact that they now produce mainly gas, with the split likely to further skew in favour of gas in the future.