Member Info for shakeypremis

Mr Nikolaos D Monoyios.

I am not sure they have the reserve base in South Disouq to justify the expansion. They'd blow through it very quickly at 100mmcf/d. Increasing gas production at SD will actually result in a lower return on investment because it will produce the same revenue (only faster) but increase the initial CAPEX to expand the CPF and sustaining CAPEX to maintain the expanded operation. So the increase in production must be sustained for a lot longer in my mind to justify the expansion CAPEX.

In Morocco they clearly need to find some other method of monetising the gas they keep finding.

I am going to try to quiz him AGAIN on just what they are planning to do in Morocco to actually monetise the gas they keep finding that involves hefty CAPEX to drill and develop. What's the point of it if it takes you years and years to sell the stuff to your existing small customer base?

You need to become one, or at least close to it if you want to invest in the stock market.

Everything must be taken in context and you should expect to see large write-downs in the natural resources industry when exploration and development work is undertaken.

This has happened many times before, especially after decent results or other good news. The share price will rise on small volume and then subsequently fall back to lower than it was pre-news. The same could happen again. I bought some more here last week so I hope not but if it does fall back I will buy more most likely.

At the end of this year SDX could have a third of the current market cap in cash (~US$15m) after accounting for planned CAPEX for the rest of the year.

If you think SDX's exploration record shows a bad use of cash I think you are wrong. Yes we can argue whether that they could have used the cash to invest elsewhere in an acquisition but they have successfully used cash in their exploration efforts as they overwhelmingly resulted in success and will show a return on investment.

Write-downs don't affect cash. They show that cash you've invested hasn't paid off so you write it off as an expense to lessen your tax liability. For instance, the cash invested to drill those sub-commercial wells in Morocco is an example. If they had been successful those wells would be counted as assets and wouldn't be written off.

Oil and gas. They are non-cash losses though, it's like writing down a laptop you broke in your small business more or less. Obviously it means that some investment made has not resulted in anything that will increase revenues but that's the way it is sometimes.

Those three customers are not shutdown, they are operating at ~60% of previous rates unless I am missing something on my first quick read through.

Yes I agree very meh, but what were we really expecting? SDX hasn't done much to produce anything more than meh and of course CV19 has impacted cash generation in Morocco.

Results released;

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SDX/h1-2020-financial-and-operating-results/14659855?showDisclaimer=true

To be honest, given SDX's track record of not signing up new customers in Morocco I think we should not get our hopes up there. There will be other ways to monetise the gas but will SDX do it? Who knows.

Additionally the 8% projected uplift in gas production calculated by Tigris and Small_Holding is just not going to interest the market at large.

Where I think an increased share price is most likely to come from is increasing cash on the balance sheet and an acquisition. If it weren't for these two factors I would be very worried for my investment. SDX are at some point going to have a war-chest full of cash and ability to get extra debt (because the banks will know they are good for it) and they'll be able to snap themselves up a very nice value adding acquisition. Hopefully....

Yup. AIM mug punters seem mostly unaware of this company. I have been invested here for a year and a half (over on the ASX) and topped up big-time in March here on the LSE when the market crashed. Great company with a fantastic asset in Rupice and good potential in their soon to be acquired Tethyan asset in Serbia.

It's because the bid has been dropped to 15.6p. That is the highest priced buy order on the market at the moment.

You've been in the sun too long.

Just hurry up and close the gap at 15p or whatever it is already. This is getting tiresome.

Understand your frustrations mate. I am also down. The only reason you can actually make any money in the stock market is because the market fundamentally miss-prices securities. If everything was perfectly priced there would be no way to make a lot of money by buying undervalued stock.

Yes, because liquidity is very low here and selling £16k worth of shares of stock is all it takes so drop this 5%. Would you perhaps care to sell a few of yours so as to drop it some more so I can buy them at 15p please?

At the current share price (circa 17p owing to the huge spread 16-17.6p - crazy) the market cap is around £35m (based on 205m shares issued). Less cash on the balance sheet (which must be around US$10m by now) you have a free-cashflow to enterprise value ratio of not very much.

I can. It's cheap and good future prospects. What are you still doing here if you don't think the share price is ever going to go up?

Yup. Very. They are getting some of the award due to working-interest production increases I imagine. Although WI production has just been smashed with the sale of NW Gemsa (again, those barrels were making bugger all money).

Share price heading for the gap from late April;

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_56a658a1de54936656e0f81c26665e59.png

A nice place to line up a top-up.

To be honest I think we all bought an over-valued and over-hyped stock back then. Today's incarnation of SDX is much more realistic and the current price is very undervalued on current production and cashflow alone, let alone the potential for future organic and inorganic growth. SDX is a very low risk way to gain exposure to an O&G company with ambitions to grow in size.