RE: The problem as I see it22 Sep 2020 14:27
Massive margins in Morocco, they just can't sell the gas. See this summary of a new research report from Auctus posted by Tigris72Poo. South Disouq margins will improve over time with each incremental discovery brought on stream due to the large sunk costs already spent:
"Good report by Auctus. Only thing they missed is that we now own 100% of the two large prospects in SD (Shikabala and Shikabala North) as a result of IPR's decision to pass on SD-12X. Their main conclusion and target:
Value build-up
SDX shares trade at EV/DACF multiples of ~1.3x in 2020. Our 2P NAV is £0.27
per share, representing 70% upside. The prospective resources already
identified have an unrisked NAV of £0.12 per share for Egypt (+75%) and
£1.03 per share for Morocco (+600%). The main exploration drilling
programme is restarting in 2021 but the company should test the LMS-2
well in Morocco in 4Q20, should COVID-19 restrictions be lifted. A success
would derisk ~5 bcf WI resources at LMS-2 (+£0.13 per share) and a further
~20 bcf WI resources in the wider La Mimouna area (+£0.50 per share). Our
target price of £0.40 per share (~ our ReNAV) represents ~150% upside."