Member Info for shakeypremis

Technically, if Hanut is a success and comes in on prognosis, it will be transformational in terms of NPV, not necessarily cashflows as they will stay the same unless they increase production capacity and the CPF. Success at Hunt will extend reserves life out to nearly 2030 I believe and more than double the current NPV I think. If someone were to buy out the company after that at the same prices as today they'd be buying the company for pennies on the dollar.

I don't think we know whether IPR have committed to participating. The deadline was supposed to be end of October I think but it seems that it actually wasn't lol. I have no idea.

Believe it was one of their webcasts. Most likely the latest one which is available on their website.

They already said there definitely won't be a dividend before this latest round of drilling is done and no indication there will be one afterwards either.

If you can buy something for way under NAV/NPV with the prospect of that NAV/NPV increasing substantially in the near future (South Disouq/Morocco drills) then you would if it were another stock wouldn't you? It's just that this one is SDX and the market doesn't like it. We also have the bonus of no dilution due to all E&D being funded from cash flow. I think if we hadn't all been here for years and underwater we'd likely be looking at this company as a bargain.

A small dividend would make holding this dog much easier I have to admit. 1% maybe? Irrelevant anyway, there isn't going to be one any time soon.

Nothing else to say lol.

You're only as old as you feel. In my case, very old.

Glass half-empty kind of guy. I hate to think what I'll be like in say 30 years or so when I'll be 60+. It'll be awful. Unless SDX has made me a millionaire by then. So I guess it'll be awful. I just can't help myself can I.

Unless doing something that it shouldn't do is positive. Then it doesn't do it.

Legache, it is on the way down. It actually shouldn't be sensitive to the oil price at all really. Most of its revenue comes from fixed price gas. But of course, this being SDX it does what it shouldn't do.

Always takes way less volume to drive it down than it takes to move it upward.

People here just setting themselves up for inevitable disappointment again from over-zealous and unfounded expectations. Most likely explanation for price rise here is general sector uplift. Don't be surprised to see this fall again. I don't want it to but I have to be realistic.

Hope I am wrong and something is in the pipeline or this price uplift stays but there is zero evidence to justify any claims of takeovers, acquisitions etc.

Based on experience. No.

Seems like a general rerate in the oil sector is underway. Most companies up much more than SDX as is customary. SDX smashed just as hard on the way down despite deriving little of it's free cash flow from oil anymore.

A takeover at a nice price would be nice but see nothing to suggest that is on the cards.

NPV next year if Hanut is successful will be significantly higher. If the Top Nappe in Morocco works out then it'll be even higher.

It seems SDX have discussions with potential customers on a semi regular basis but apparently most of them never want enough gas to make it worthwhile for them (whatever worthwhile means to SDX).

Citic Dicastal Co. That was the Chinese company. Auto-parts maker.

But yes, can't see any more demand coming in. The guy who recently had to declare a spreadbet here (David Newlands) was on the Capital Markets call and said this (paraphrasing);

"Find more gas in Morocco is all well and good, but where is new demand going to come from."

Mark Reid waffled on and basically there is nothing even close to concrete in terms of new demand. The Morocco business just isn't like that. There is spare capacity in the AFZ for more businesses. If they come they may want gas but it has to be of sufficient volumes to make it worthwhile for SDX. So basically, don't expect SDX gas demand in Morocco to increase further than that 9th customer any time soon.

Citic (or whatever they are called). Chinese company I think and current customer. They are commissioning a new factory in AFZ and already drawing gas I think. SDX expect it to add another US$2m/year in free cash flow I think. It's in the latest Capital Markets Day and also in the recent investor call.

The cash they invest in drilling does not generate equal amounts in free cash flow. It generates multiples. There shouldn't be loads more CAPEX that doesn't generate a direct return (like the building and commissioning of the CPF) other than pipelines. Drilling and finding commercial resources does generate a return on investment.

https://twitter.com/sdxenergy/status/1329346238911754240

"Looking ahead #SDX is well-placed to weather the current global uncertainties and continues to screen a number of business development opportunities, as well as constantly assessing the optimum allocation of its capital."

Does that mean they are looking at business development in Morocco to monetise gas they can't sell as well as inorganic growth? Most likely nothing will come of either.