Member Info for senseman

CA’s RNS surprised. Whereas responsible posters phrase legitimate questions, others opine that CA, pursuing it’s own narrow agenda, may throw PIs under a bus. History does not support such view. Hence I urge caution in giving credence. My reflective comment:-

‘One needs very good reason to doubt a steadfast friend. Radio silence dictated by legal necessity does not constitute good reason.’

CRYSTAL AMBER
First invested in HUR in 2013. Between April-June 2021 it (& PIs) fought a dogfight against a BoD + bondholder group court application to dilute SHs by 95%. PI support was unprecedented. A wise judge refused the application. And leave to appeal. Judgement was emphatic.

Consequently Chair McTiernan + all NEDs resigned rather than be EGM sacked. CEO Maris & CFO Chaffe remained SOLELY because NOMAD Stifel otherwise threatened resignation. Which would have left HUR 30 days to appoint a NOMAD, CEO & CFO or be delisted from AIM. Besides making huge fees from the restructuring application, failure meant NOMAD Stifel forfeited a $1mill ‘success fee’. In short, Stifel, Maris & Chaffe were allied.

CA made known it’s enforced reasons for retaining CEO & CFO. It’s 2 independent NED nominees were elected. In Oct 2021 Philip Wolfe was appointed independent NED. In Feb 2022 he was appointed Chair. Mr Wolfe was NOT a CA nominee.

In March 2022, CA’s Juan Morera was appointed to the BoD. CA were legally obligated to ’radio silence’ - an obligation strictly observed. Additional independent NEDs strengthened the board. Since June 2021 CA worked continuously to ensure HUR’s debilitating RNS ‘mood music’ improved to reflect it’s true optimistic status.

In Nov 2021 CA’s freedom to think HUR ‘long term’ was curtailed when largest SH Saba voted the fund’s winding down. CA’s SHs agreed an end 2023 target date for monetization. In summer 2022 this target was varied (ie extended if needed) to pursue ‘achieving best value’. Saba bought into CA at 75p. CA in 2022 returned 30p a share to SHs. CA’s current SP is 97p, Happy Saba agree CA’s strategy and greater ‘time flexibility’. In June 2022 CA announced it expected to be able to return 60p a share to SHS by end Sept 2022. Of that expected 60p, it returned 10p. It is clear an anticipated ‘deal’ regarding it’s HUR shareholding failed. On 30 Sept 2022, without giving adequate reason, HUR announced it would not proceed with new well P8. It is difficult to see both occurrences being unconnected.

CEO. CFO & CHAIR
CEO & CFO forfeited SH loyalty in wrongly presenting to the court in 2021 that HUR was ‘mortally wounded’ (it wasn’t), save for a 95% dilution restructuring. This wrongness was compounded when it became clear that, with then over $60 mill cash available, if HUR was indeed ‘mortally wounded’ they did not apply pure common sense and instantly secure HUR’s safety by buying back significant bonds at 30c-40c in the $. Instead, they authorised a $17 mill spend on the restructuring plan.

flynchy
i am not confused
the BoD composition issue the pedant poster raised is a NON ISSUE!!

Strewth! FFS Flynchy! Don't encourage the pedant!
Being a director is a prerequisite of being an executive director!!!!!
If CA EGM resolution passes, Maris, Chaffe, Wolfe are GONE. Period!
The BoD then nominate any 2 directors as CEO & CFO!
In Narnia land, if no one is up for it, they drag in 2 stary cats from the street, nominate them as directors, CEO & CFO.
Strewth - it's easier educating a class of 5 year olds!

The post at 15.55 today by the ex-bondholder induces....

The post at 15.55 today induces REVULSION within me. On account of it's rewriting of history. Let others take note.

I will opine re CA's RNS when the juice properly floweth

CA induced the BoD to update after each offload - hence Aug & Nov updates were post-offloads rather than 3 monthly, as updates were delayed till after end of month when sale price was determined. Unless it changes I expect update mid Jan as price for Dec offload will be known 31 Dec. We shall see.

Musing. $99 mill banked. Being cautious, net $20 mill profit Dec offload. At $90 oil, Feb o/load profit $23 mill ($95/$25mil)
So end Feb say $143/ $145 mill cash. Less $70 mill for 3p divi. So post 3p divi $73/$75 mill cash left.
Offload due April week 3 - say $25 mill from $95 oil (I think will be higher)
Offload due June week 4 - say $25 mill from $95 oil (ditto as above)
So end June, $73/$75 mill + $50 mill = $122/$125 mill cash in bank

If no deal by end June, CA will want to de-risk further. So they (and we) could press for 2nd 3p a share divi v.early Q3 (cost $70 mill)
So 6p a share divis returned (2 x 3p), and $123/$125 mill - $70 mill = $53/$55 mill still left in bank post 2nd 3p a share divi would not a bad place for SHs to be. And perhaps a good start point for actively seeking an exit deal backed by tax credits & espec if oil seems permanently high.
HUR decommissioning costs already in escrow, as is 6 months Aoka Mizu lease payments. $53/$55 mill in bank is ample for emergency events.

A poster again giving it large re peeps can filter if they dislike his guff. Quite true. But oh the joy of employing a dummy or a bag full of gobstoppers. Or learning the wisdom of keeping one's gob zipped unless one has something constructive to say. A quick learner the poster is not.

RG - no problem, I figured that.
The poster's best ignored. Save for the periodic necessity to warn others. Upsets him most
I've apparently miraculously morphed from being the one who warned ADVFN of him, into being the 'doppelganger'

Gloucs - quite agree. Solid growing consensus. Latest is today's S & P Global's (below). And US started buying back strategic reserve they sold at average $96. If China accepts high deaths as quid pro quo for re-opening economy, could be price fireworks
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/21/dan-yergin-on-oil-prices-china-reopening.html

Whereas the next couple of months many be volatile, the below 2 articles seem to represent the macro view:-
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Era-Of-Cheap-Oil-Has-Come-To-An-End.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Expects-A-Bumper-Year-For-Commodities-In-2023.html

ADVFN post yesterday 11.43am. from poster asimpleinvestor. That pre-warned forum did not rise to the bait. Imagine the chagrin at getting no reaction. So today we benefit. Thank you, kind sir, for the plaudits

"19/12/2022.
11:43 Thread now on LSE "RE: Could we do a 'Go Fund' to keep a certain informative poster in this share?"

This individual has done more to help and inform HUR investors than anybody else. His knowledge of the subject is second to none, and I even include myself in that remark lol!

He is obviously a decent and self-less person who has given up hours of his time trying to rally support for action to remedy the serious issues we have all been effected by as shareholders in HUR.

Unfortunately and through no fault of his own as far as I can see, the poster has encountered some difficult financial pressures and I think it time now that all fellow decent people lend a helping hand for somebody who has done so much to help us all!

So good luck, I thank you and I salute you!
asimpleinvestor"

....it's content.

Optimistic + Fellows
My circumstances were explained 1 Dec as reason why I would not attend the 14 Dec GM. I did not believe it right to encourage attendance without providing reason why I could not. My update was a response to Euston2283's thoughtful progress enquiry. The offerings of help without even being requested humble me. Thank you.

Whilst not being averse to accepting help, I regret I cannot. Doing so would create argument we seek to avoid. And would provide hostage to fortune for others to use as a stick against any honest opinion I may in future air. Credibility, especially on this forum, matters. Aware in recent months of my impending financial crunch, I could have opined that a speedy deal was best for SHs. I did not as it would have been a dishonest view (irrespective of it's wisdom or otherwise). I have always made known my awareness of those more deeply underwater than myself. And the task of striving to achieve the best SP for all, personal circumstance aside.

Upon this week selling a large proportion of shares, I will retain a portion and an interest. I will not be going anywhere, & will continue to do whatever I can to see fair value.

I received support over the weekend via my back-up email - fellers, appreciated, I will respond when able. And yesterday a phone call from a respected LTSH aware of my reason for originally investing in HUR - namely that my lease-term was diminishing and at some I must pay a significant sum to restore it to safety (ie, back to full term) before it diminished further & the cost increased. Like many, HUR's self-induced successive catastrophic events occurred so rapidly I was left stranded without fair opportunity to exit without huge loss. I, like many others, was seeking to be neither foolish nor greedy. Just reasonable man seeking reasonable reward for fair risk. with fair opportunity to exit at calculated loss should performance be poor.

The LTSH suggested it would be more appropriate for anyone wishing to help me to wait till nearer, or at, HUR's end-game. Whereupon if anyone felt I had extraordinarily contributed to them making profit, or even limiting losses, they could contribute to a GoFund or similar in appreciation of work I had inputted. A fair 'quid pro quo', if you wish, which would not be out of place & which might provide a fillip to my attacking my underlying lease issue.

I am unable to quickly process the support being currently given. Nor the LTSH's suggestion. During the writing of this NSTiger posted at 11.49 a fair precis of the LTSH's phone view. The LTSH, by the way, was not NSTiger. I am not a 'charity case'. Put simply: time, HUR & freeholder have conspired against me to force low-price sale causing great personal angst. I will reflect in coming months on the respected LTSH's advice.

My request is that we do not allow this thread to create disquiet, and a line be drawn under it. The reasons, I am sure, are clear. I make clear my humble appreciation of

thanks fellas. i don't have to sell all my shares. luck-will-change - haven't a clue, but my back-up email is peter0255@yahoo.co.uk to get in touch, i look in there couple of times a week

Afternoon Euston - very kind & thoughtful of you. This week, having no alternative, I will sell a large part of my shares at a loss to pay the rogue rich freeholder. The angst at such selling will be huge, and will remain for years. The circa 3p a share divi would arrive too late, and by selling now I also forfeit a large part of that. Having previously sold all bar the furniture to already pay circa the f/holder £20K in the past year, I also have no mechanism available in the short-term future to acquire funds quickly enough to buy back in at a similar low price.

My building is not part of, say, a 100 flat complex whereby peeps pay £100 a year for residents association membership so there is always a healthy fighting fund for freehold disputes, and enthusiastic residents' committee prepared to fight. My building is 14 flats (the worst size) with no residents association. To fight anything legally would be me doing the donkey work, accepting the financial risk, and herding mostly 13 sheep. There is the 1st Tier Tribunal (Leasehold Property) route, with lesser cost & stress risk which I will consider in coming months to recover part of the excess monies. But even that is not a speedy process. And, similar to the HUR 21 situation, the decision there would be to expend unpaid time fighting, or spend less stressful time earning money and waving one's 'bad-situation' losses goodbye.

Having grown up in N.Wales in tough times at times only a few short steps removed from living in a cave and surviving on moss & rainwater at times, and from there flying high, I have experienced both sides of Rudyard Kipling's 'Triumph & Disaster'. So I understand both philosophically & pragmatically how to cope with reversal. But that does not make the mental turmoil disappear. It just provides the stability of knowing recovery is a slow process and that one will survive. My coping mantra over coming months will be ....'The secret of life is to endure' .

The below articless indicate 2 things:-
1. China, India etc will always pay less than the price cap. And Russia will always have to sell at the price offered
2. By Feb, Russia production will have fallen significantly, ergo Brent will have risen

https://www.ft.com/content/41237fe7-210d-406c-a22a-2e17a79f7381

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/EU-Races-To-Replace-Russian-Oil-Products.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/14/russian-oil-revenues-fall-in-november-despite-production-boost

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/crude-prices-may-rally-next-year-as-russian-oil-exports-sink-iea-says

The IEA are ultra conservative. Russia effect at last beginning to kick in. Oil market & price will be different by Feb.

China dismantling Covid restrictions faster than expected
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/12/13/asia-pacific/china-covid-steep-surge/

true haggis. but there is a sweet spot we haven't arrived at yet. well 6 hasn't encountered any problems yet, and even pump failure is in unlikely to be catastrophic, even if i was, well 7 could be run to cover costs or at small poss whilst tax credits are used? (i don't know figures for this)
either way, i would prefer to accept the risk. we didn't recover this far by being shrinking violets. or we would have sold at 1p in case we lost in court. even if it goes t its up, there's still the cash in the bank, which by mid feb will be +$140 mill excluding $19mill in escrow

And well 8 should be drilled

Haggis. With respect, have you lost your marbles? Selling any small oilco in deep midwinter and depressed $81 Brent set to rise is a complete no-no. Do you think a buyer will concur that 2023 Brent will likely exceed $100?
Maris will not be the decision maker. And if he was and sold by end Jan I would despair.
Forgiveness? Are you mad? Not in several lifetimes and then add some. The man is shareholder poison, He is not a man

On 5 Feb 23 the EU ban on almost 1 million bpd of Russian diesel, naptha, fuel oil, petrol starts. Russia cannot store these products and cannot find new byers as China India etc refine from their imported crude. Russia production will be forced to be lowered. This will hurt Russia (as always expected) more than any crude oil price cap. The EU must replace the products from western markets, and/or increasing refining capabilities. Either way, Brent will rise

China must depart from zero Covid policy or face increasing public demonstrations. For the first time Xi is between a rock and a hard place. So restrictions have started being eased. The risk is that with huge elderly population Covid deaths could rise to 50K a day or 1-1.5 million total. China has 4 ICU beds per 100K population compared to USA's 18 per 100K population. And no western vaccine (the effective one). So expect rising Covid as restrictions are lifted then reimposed on a stop-start basis. China fully opened would see a 3 million bpd oil import increase - that is the huge drag China Covid has had on limiting oil prices. The net impact on China slowly opening (with consequent Covid deaths) in 2023 is increased 1-1.5 million bpd oil imports so net higher Brent