Member Info for senseman

It takes much to test my sang froid. But 7.3p does.
There is SO much uncertainty. Deal or no deal? If no deal, 3p divi + new BoD?
Whichever way I look, I cannot (i) see CA agreeing a cheap deal (ii see Maris & Co surviving if no acceptable deal.
It's a time for having faith in fundamentals
a. Even $85 Feb offload sees $142 mill cash ie 5.9p a share
a. Even $85 April offload sees $162 mill cash ie 6.75p a share (reasonable earliest date legal completion of deal)
c. $19 mill in escrow adds 0.95p a share (yes it's real money)
So at 7.3p we are nearly at MCap in 2 weeks and would be above Mcap with April offload

i have a problem with that
canetois is a decent man imbued with consistency

No, British
It's Billy No Mates using one of several aliases employed to confuse folk

Last offload 10 Dec 544K barrels big & late due to weather. 530K @ 7800 bpd takes 68 days so circa 16 Feb. Laser will update when tanker departs for AM
Brent 2022 averaged $99 ($90 was forecast). 2023 average forecast 30 top brokers $90.
Brent current $86. Will now till 5 Feb see uplift as 5 Feb EU Russia sanctions petrol & diesel approaches? Need $90 average Feb 1-5 to keep us cheerful
Article cites uncertainty caused by EPL
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-And-Gas-In-For-Turbulent-Year-As-Governments-And-Industry-Butt-Heads.html

This week has seen 2 events am sure many would have wished to comment on - the Leopards being freed and the Tyre Nichols video footage. Many would opine the former breaks the heart with gladness, the latter breaks it with horror.

In times past, even at their bleakest, the forum had a hinterland - Aduk's trucking adventures, exchange of world event opinions, self deprecating humour & badinage. Indulged in & enjoyed during waiting periods, yet instinctively moderated when news flowed. All appreciated those meanderings from the main path, the addition of colour to the journey

The sadness is that that hinterland has disappeared. Principally on account of a zealot who has made all afraid of introducing any 'off topic' subject, for fear of it being pulled. We all know that as individuals we are richer, wiser and better for having a hinterland. So it is with a forum.

$95 Brent - add $2.5 mill per offload
$100 Brent - add $5 mill per offload

The 2023 rate of production decline will be crucial. Dec 22's offload averaged 7950 bpd. On 9 Jan it was 7800. HUR forecasts a 2023 average of 5900-7100 bpd. For past 2 yrs performance has been at the top of forecast predictions. At 7000 bpd a 530L offload = 75 days production = 4.8 offloads. There was 3 wks already in the AM by end Dec so 5.1 offloads, say 5 offloads 2023 - mid Feb, mid/late April, early July, mid/late Sept, mid/late Dec.

At $90 Brent, less BW 8%, and with costs $40 pd estimated )HYR last said $34 but will have risen, say $42.8 pb profit
530K offload x 42.8 - $22.7 mill profit, say $22.7 mill
$22.7 mill x 5 = $113.5 mill
Current $122 mill + $113.5 mill = $235.7 mill

Imagine HUR gave BW 6 mths notice end June so (is it) $19 mill in escow fully utilised, ie: reducing costs $19 mill.
So end 2023 cash = $235.7 + $19 mill = $254.7 mill
Divide $254.7 mill by 2 billion shares = 12.7 cents a share = 10.6 p.sh cash (at todays $/£ exchange).
Ignore the $19mill escrow and don't wind down - end 2023 cash = $235.7 mill (2 bill shares) = 11.78 cents/ 9.8p p.sh

The above assumes $90 oil, 7000 bpd 2023 average & $40 pb OPEX. Costs rise if production falls quicker than expected. Against that POO over $90 increases profit. But as things stand 9.8p cash end 2023 with HUR still running is not a pipedream. No account has been taken of the effect of any management or planning changes
Brent today $87.4

Uncertainty & inactivity kills confidence. We seem to have embraced a degree of confirmation bias that a lowish offer acceptable to the BoD & CA will emerge, which SHs should agree reasonable in all the circumstances. Whereas I don't know what will transpire, reflection often helps. Consider these SPs:-
09.03.22 12.34p (12 month high)
25.03.22 9.5p
13.04.22 11.14p
25.01.23 8.05p
When SP retraced from 12.34p to 9p-11p March 22, consensus was it was it’s correct range - NO outcry that it overvalued HUR. Bonds remained payable In July 22. P6 needed to pump. Upon bond repayment a sea change was visible - $60 mill free cash remained. Feb 23’s imminent offload will see +$140 mill cash. Any deal legalities would take 2 months so cash would be $160-$165 mill ie 6.8p p.sh. So, essentially, what has changed, for good or bad, March 22 - Feb 23?
1. Free cash increased from zero to +$140 mill – net 5.8p p.share (positive)
2. Plan (P8) abandoned (negative)
It fails my sniff test that 12 mths problem free P6 5.8p p.share production profits essentially equates in value to the loss of Plan P8 (or similar, which I believe reversible via new management), and renders fair value now 9p-11p ie: SP March 22 when HUR had zero free cash & bond debt existed. I believe it unwise to too hastily discounted that CA may have:-
a. Lost patience Sept 22 after P8 abandonment collapsed deal wherefrom CA planned to return 50p p.share to it's SHs.
b. Agreed with Saba & other main SHs that, given 2 of it’s other asset companies could not monetize before end 2024, a new timeline of end 2024 for HUR monetization.
c. Viewed the current SP, when compared to March 2022’s & HUR’s now materially improved position, as being so far removed from fair value so as to require new executives to restore fair value.
d. In short, in Sept/Oct 22 fundamentally changed mindset and timeline, commenced talks with Albion, and thereafter called the currently cancelled sacking EGM.
If so, the likely unforeseen will have been HUR introducing an early Jan bid deadline, effectively extended to 6 Feb by CA. If CA has indeed reset it’s target higher, a bid would either need to meet those higher expectations, or CA now lower them. Given so many variables, if CA have had a fundamental rest, for a bid to succeed needs considerable luck.
I repeat I have no idea what will transpire. Just that my gut has been complaining for a while about confirmation bias that a deal will be done at a certain SP level. Put another way, what would all have said in March 22 if asked about a 10-12p deal in Feb 23 with +$140 mill free cash banked ($160-$165 mill free cash - 6.8p.p.sh at deal’s legal completion)? Would you have considered such a deal reasonable?

Hello Euston - thanks for kind words. Reality - very painful. Barring a major miracle (no deal, new BoD 2nd lease of life) I won't be recovering even my HUR costs back. Not happy place to be in after a few yrs of blood sweat & tears. "Life's a ***** and then we die" fair sums up my current mood. Especially painful as I originally bought into HUR as protection to be able to safeguard the lease on my flat when the time came to pay a big chunk of cash to make it safe back to it's 100 yr level when it got dangerously low in yrs. it's fair to say that idea has gone for a burton.
Received kind emails of support from fellow posters. Appreciated. Been unable to respond yet as still short of juice but will do, so fellas excuse my poor manners.
I'll leave it at that to avoid inviting inappropriate comment

tiger - you had me worried for a minute...)

bocase's ADVFN link:-
https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/oil-futures-price-forecast-analysis-iea/
"Oil prices are set for a significant increase as global demand heads for record levels fuelled by the loosening of Covid restrictions in China. At the same time, Russian sanctions are about to start having an effect, creating a perfect environment for a tightening in the market."
Brent today $88

They have all his aliases well pegged over there, he just bores folk now

Gloucs - Billy No Mates plagiarising your LSE post over on ADVFN under moniker 'fat frenk'

Gloucs - Fair point
But given much currently opaque and tactical, and any deal would likely take 2-3 months for legalities, I would not discount CA having made it a condition of EGM request postponement that circa 3p divi occur. Remember any buyer would be looking to get lots of HUR freebies for nothing. I would certainly look to separate circa 3p cash from any deal.

Email from Hargreaves Lansdown

"Dear
Hurricane Energy plc has announced a return of capital.
Subject to court approval on 31 January 2023, shareholders at the close of business on the same date will receive a return of capital payment. This is expected to be 3.1p per ordinary share held although not yet confirmed.

The return of capital is expected to be paid on or around 1 February 2023. We will contact shareholders following the return of capital to confirm the payment.
If you have any queries regarding this matter please do not hesitate to contact us."

Key IEA (usually ultra-conservative) 2023 metrics are:
Current world demand : 98.8 mill bpd
Consumption increase: 1.9 mill bpd
Supply decrease: 1.0 mill bpd
Net differential: 2.9 mill bpd. ie: circa 3% of world demand
The potential for high POO is self evident

FT article text is (I encourage a reading):-
Global oil demand set to reach record high as China reopens, IEA says Russian supplies and Beijing’s policies represent ‘two wild cards’ of 2023 The IEA forecast that the ‘well-supplied’ global oil market at the start of the year could ‘quickly tighten’ as western sanctions against Russian products take full effect. IEA says Global oil demand is set to rise to an all-time high in 2023 as China relaxes its Covid-19 restrictions in a move that may push crude prices higher in the second half of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Demand for crude oil could rise 1.9mn barrels a day to reach a record 101.7mn b/d, while the evolving impact of western sanctions on Russia threatens to constrain supply, the IEA said in its first monthly oil report of 2023. “Two wild cards dominate the 2023 oil market outlook: Russia and China,” the report said, adding that robust demand growth would tighten “the balances as Russian supply slows under the full impact of sanctions”. Crude prices soared last year to near record highs amid fears of disruption to oil markets following Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine, but then fell back as Russian supply held up and an economic slowdown crimped demand, particularly in Europe. The Paris-based IEA, which advises governments on energy policy, said Russian oil supply had “held steady” in December, at 11.2mn b/d, despite the introduction of EU sanctions on the import of Russian crude. However, it forecast that the “well-supplied” global oil market at the start of the year could “quickly tighten” as western sanctions — particularly an EU ban on the import of refined Russian products from February 5 — take full effect. Prices for Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed 1.4 per cent on Wednesday morning to more than $87 a barrel. Growing optimism that Chinese demand will recover this year has helped oil prices rally by around 10 per cent in the past week. The IEA said nearly half of the forecast rise in oil consumption this year would come from China even though “the shape and speed” of the country’s reopening remained uncertain. Coronavirus restrictions in China, which depressed economic activity last year, meant that Chinese oil demand in 2022 fell for the first time since 1990, declining by an average of 390,000 b/d, its biggest annual fall. But the loosening of quarantine and testing measures in November, followed by Beijing’s abrupt decision to abandon its so-called zero-Covid regime in early December, had already boosted Chinese consumption, the IEA said. Chinese oil demand in November rose by 470,000 b/d compared with October, according to the agency’s data. Opec, the oil producer group led by Saudi Arabia, expects Chinese demand to grow"

'Talk is cheap'. Meaning that Gloucs & I were talking cheaply out of our rear ends
I have conducted no ' fund me'. Nor has anyone on my behalf. I wrote specifically dissuading such action. You know this. I have sold some HUR shares.
My posts yesterday were my first for 5 days. Because I believed I has something of value to contribute.

Here are today's 2 most significant serious press POO articles (I encourage all to read):-

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/aramco-chief-warns-of-oil-supply-shortages-as-chinese-demand-to-surge.html

https://www.ft.com/content/fb9dde20-96c2-4001-a37d-931fdcac667a

I have not advised anyone to go long POO. But had I deep pockets, at today's $84/$85 Brent, I personally would.

daltry
try it somewhere else - 'talk is cheap' 'Life is not all roses. ADHD'
why don't you express opinion without always having sly digs? as other people manage to? you think folk don't notice?
i have no problem with views differing from mine

And disparaging negative comment even cheaper.....