Member Info for senseman

We were paying 25K a day
The AM contract could have been extended for 3 yrs @ 25K a day
The day it wasn't extended we started paying 75K a day, ie 18.25mill a year MORE
It could and should have been extended for 3 yrs. Had HUR wound up just a year later the 3 yr cost would have been the same as 1 yr at 75K a day
3 yrs at extra 18.25 mill a year wasted = 56.75 mill
Add the loss caused by not buying bonds back at 30c-40c in S (+ years of extra interest paid)
Add nearly 20 mill restructure plan & CA legal costs.
And it becomes clear how restructure plan real cost was +150 million. Then add company & SH confidence destruction

July week 1 offload will see circa 7.8p cash + circa 1p cash held in escrow, ie 8.8p total. A single $100 offload of the next 3 offloads by August week 2 will see 9p cash + 1p escrow = 10p cash. So why the misery?
It's been a mere 2 weeks since 6 Feb - 2 weeks!. CA will not sell for peanuts, neither will it allow drift. I would be very surprised if no news before end Feb less than 7 days hence

fand - since the punch up a few months production & finance updates have been after each offload. so one is expected. the question is whether in a few days, or after last 5 days of month when price we get for offload is certain. whenever it comes, update on FSP is likely. the production and well 6 performance figures (ie rate of decline & water cut) matter more than how much the offload is worth

anyone know laser's magic formula for figuring out how many barrels, from the draught etc?

noel steps manfully into the breach..)
lots of healthy indications very sold upward-pressure floor building under Brent price
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-set-record-crude-oil-imports-2023-analysts-2023-02-17/
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Rise-On-Upbeat-Demand-Forecasts.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/sanctions-on-russian-oil-are-having-the-intended-effect-iea-says.html

Laser over on ADVFN must be on vacation or having a new beam fitted.

'Greatness' is usually thrust upon people by historical accident. Their differences from lesser mortals are (i) integrity (instinctive goodness) (ii) courage.
Churchill - spoilt & privileged whose incompetence when younger WW1 defence minister cost many thousands UK soldier lives. His innate goodness enabled him to set aside ego and internalise human suffering & his limitations. He knew he was never an administrator. When WW2 started he knew the cruciality of right v wrong, the value of human life, and that his greatest asset was courage. Instinctively he knew that without him the UK would appease/be conquered, US would not enter the war, Germany having only one front to fight would likely defeat Russia. The greatness of his speeches told all he would take a bullet before backing down - so soldiers and population alike embraced that vision and strength. So sorry - he said - this is the deal, and we have no choice.
Gandhi - To both sects' leaders - I will not eat till all fighting between India & ****stan stops. If it does not stop, I will die. Examine your consciences. Thank you for coming to see me. So sorry. Have a nice day.
Martin Luther King - Hello FBI Edward Hoover - so you will release film of me sleeping with another woman if I do not shut up - I have already told my wife - so release your film. And your warning that if I keep talking my life may be endangered - why do you tell me what I already know - I expect to be murdered. So sorry - have a nice day.
Nelson Mandela - Hello Mr de Klerk's envoy - so you will release me if I promise to keep my gob shut upon release? So sorry - I will not promise that. I have been in my nice small cell for 20 years and quite like it. I am happy to stay in it till my days end, thank you. So sorry. Have a nice day
Volodymyr Zelensky - So sorry, I don't need a ride, I need weapons. Hello fellow Ukrainians - here in central Kiev you see standing your 4 main government ministers - we are going nowhere - I, we, you, are Ukraine. are going nowhere. Mr Putin - send your soldiers here to die. So sorry. Have a nice day

True greatness is athletes, sportsmen & women, scientists, musicians, writers, poets etc (often from deprivation) - who do not have greatness thrust upon them by historical accident, but whom embrace the path/ rigours demanded of greatness out of instinctive embracing of the primeval desire for human improvement. Who instinctively risk - health. prosperity, livelihood, sanity, life itself - for nothing bar unravelling secrets of life.. This takes, and is, raw courage. This is true greatness. So sorry.

But those whom historical accident thrusts/ invites greatness upon - join the ranks of true greatness when, faced with the stark choice to embrace or deny, have the courage to embrace existential risk, and choose to risk all.

fand
your comment the thoughts of all LTSHs - peace of mind crucial element always understated - allows moving on
i'll go further - never give up - till the fat lady sings - imagine no deal, new BoD, flawed CPR 2 evidenced, reliable CPR 3 adds 100-200 mill barrels - SP 40p!. Never give up - never surrender hope - never stop trying - NEVER

apology, should read....'open the door to sight of...'

Here's a striking 'no fair deal' thought:-
Having new chief execs would, for the first time, the door to sight of:-
1. Comms between HUR & all other parties re 2021 failed restructuring attempt.
2. Comms & supplied data between HUR & CPR 1 & CPR 2 companies
3. The veracity or otherwise into HUR's 'investigation' into 2020/2021

Both CA & new chief execs would have powerful common interest in seeing (i) if there was any claim/case to be made to HUR insurers re 2020/2021 events, (ii) more crucially, ascertaining if CPR 2 can be relied upon or, if not, a CPR 3 is merited. The SP impact of any significant upgrade to CPR 2 recoverables would be immense.
All else aside, simply knowing the truth (whatever it may be) about both situations would give a new BoD, CA & SHs considerable peace of mind. Such, in itself, has inestimable value

IEA forecasts new global record high oil demand in 2023

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-IEA-Expects-Global-Oil-Demand-Hit-A-Record-High-In-2023.html

What sh...eet about to hit what fan..?
Lord give me strength........!

Oldman - CA have a member on the board so entitled to know all, but forbidden to pass anything on to other SHs
I have entered sleep mode till end Feb, much as I regret the need to do so. Reasons:-

1. CA won't shoot themselves in the foot for the sake of 2-3 weeks if Stifel are saying - 'the BoD and us need 2-3 weeks more as interested parties say they need this, Are you prepared to screw things up for the sake of a little extra time?'
2. CA lose little allowing enough time. Because every 9 weeks of well 6 pumping adds another 1p p.sh offload to cash. Today's offload means 6p cash in bank, with all decommissioning costs and 6 months Aoku Mizu rent safely in escrow. Will be 7p April, 8p early July.
3. CRUCIAL - under the radar has gone unnoticed that CA with average HUR cost price 6.2p p.share (or is it 6.7p?), with 6p cash in bank are now risk free - compared with 6 months ago when with 3p p.sh cash in bank they were not. If all went t....its up tomorrow CA are covered. This means they can now move from defensive into attacking mode: ie: what is our possible loss, to 'how much can we make?'. Think of it in cricketing terms - a team 100 down after first innings needs bat defensively with no wicket loss until it reaches parity at 100-0. It can then go into attack mode - the shackles come off.

For the above reasons I would not agonise over no news. Rather. embrace silence. With CA essentially now 100% derisked, it (& us) can now enter attack mode. CA know this. So they will take their time - to see if a good deal can emerge, or it's time to fire the EGM bullet.

I posted immediately after P8 debacle now some 6 months ago that my ideal was for all to have big sleep till end Feb 23 & embrace the quid pro quo risk of well 6 problems. By which time we would have enough f...eck you cash banked for a proper BoD to have the freedom to make CONSTRUCTIVE forward decisions and/or argue a sale at right price. No balls - no pain - no gain! I saw no date before end Feb 23 as worth worrying about. We are nearly there. That view remains . Fight from a position of strength and a solid plan - if it fails, so what? - we all must die sometime, and only once.

Fellas
The FT interview with Pierre Andurand of Andurand Capital (who has called oil right every time last 5 yrs) is well worth a read. It is the 1st of the 2 articles.
He sees oil possibly as high as $140 later in 2023 because increased demand from China re-opening is currently grossly underestimated by the market. I concur.

Yawn...
https://www.ft.com/content/d52bcb07-ba5f-4ffd-a919-53bcf9085690

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/vladimir-putin-lost-energy-war-174459930.html

With Russia cutting on Feb 5, & OPEC+ deciding on Feb 1 not to increase production but to maintain cuts introduced in Oct 22, there are already signs of healthier more stable Brent, currently $86 & bits.
With all EU oil & gas sanctions now in place it will be interesting to see where Brent settles next few weeks. Especially if China demand slowly increases as predicted. With fair wind, we should soon see a stable $90 floor. Let's hope.

One thing is clear - by the EU showing it can survive without Russia oil & gas, Russia has not only permanently lost it's biggest customer, but has also lost the energy war.

Broom
Russia has been FORCED into 500,000 bpd production cut. On 5 Feb it lost a 1 mill bpd EU petrol & diesel finished products market. It cannot store that 1 mill bpd. It also cannot sell it cheaply to China, India, Africa etc as those countries cannot afford to buy finished products but refines their own from crude. Russia will be forced to cut further, and close Siberian pipelines it will be unable to reopen as empty pipelines left for any time at -30C are effectively destroyed.
Whatever Russia's cutting reason, Brent will rise

From Kooba on ADVFN
"Offload ahoy..taking place next day or so i am reliably informed. Seems to be on a normal expected timetable so no issues with anticipated production. A positive for ongoing talks or a wind up. .Conservatively adding $20m to the coffers for the end of the month based on $82 brent. Adding to the year end free cash of $122m to $142m getting up to 6p per share cash. Maybe they should pay 4p out if no plans and no bids ?"

Brent today +$86. April offload should see near 7p p.sh cash. End June/ early July offload should see near 8p p.sh cash.
Important to bear in mind if any BoD recommended bid legalities will take 2-4 months to enact.
$19 mill AM 6 months rent held in escrow always adds another 1p

Russia announces 500,000 bpd March production cut
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Set-For-A-Significant-Weekly-Gain-As-Russia-Announces-Production-Cut.html
Let the games, and Brent increase, begin

i hope to god the fannying about is not to get a penny extra on a low ball bid. i'd rather say get lost, have 3p and plough on with new BoD