Member Info for senseman

Oldman - thanks from all for searching. Purely for thoroughness so we can close possibly 'grabbing back a valuable HUR license), are you saying that the new license they have put a bid in for but haven't yet got relates to Ithica, ie: no connect to HUR?
What do peeps google to see it for themselves?

Does anyone know how to find out details of which licence Viaro has put in a 'final bid' for? I the absence of news, this remains a priority.

He left a month before relinquished. But groundwork thinking and discussion likely to have occurred over several months prior. If CPR 2 was iffy, doesn't matter if Jankes in tenure or not when license relinquished - would have occurred anyway a some point because of CPR 2. So issue is still live:
1. Is that license the one Viaro have bid for?
2. Is that license the only applicable one HUR relinquished? (apology if daft question, can't recall)

Jacqui - copied your post to ADVFN in total asking if anyone there can help

Jacqui - our posts crossed.
Now that IS a VERY good question. Keep posing it throughtout day. Someone will know or know where to look. Don't let it drop. Maybe Haggis will know. People look in at different times.

Yes. If CA think or know that someone at Viaro knows what is really in the ground (or at least that CPR 2 data was funny) - so let's see what they really think it's worth. Of course if they put in solid bid CA can't say we know you it's worth more cos one of your guys did naughties here a while back to downvalue us and now he's back wearing your hat trying to buy us cheap. But I suppose might fire CA's juices to say no to even solid bid if they think Viaro know something we don't yet.
No point overthinking - must be odds against us being Viaro's target.

IF it proves to be Viaro. will be interesting to also know if they were also original 7.7p rejected bidder. As if so will show low ball offer first rejected, then determined interest and higher offer, by Jankes-related company.
By the way, Tiger, I went nowhere for couple of days and didn't need a battery recharge. You and I simply disagreed. I'd leave it at that.

Daniel Jankes Linkedin
https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-jankes-92857919/?originalSubdomain=uk

Jacqui - It may not be HUR that Viaro have in sight. If they do, CA may be aware of Viaro, and of the link. But better safe than sorry.
Jankes is Rockrose, a subsidiary of Viaro (or vice versa).
CA may not know exact state of FSP - because of obvious need for secrecy only HUR Chair, CEO & CFO may know. Possible may not even know until BoD meeting when senior execs announce result and call for vote to recommend or not - wouldn't give HUR's BoD member much time to report/research. CA then faced with BoD recommended bid which then must decide accept or reject.
The senior execs hate CA & won't be looking to do CA any favours - never underestimate how tricky tricky dickies can be in this world. If Jankes & Chaffe are still best mates and at it, how difficult would it be to bend marshmallow CEO & oily Chair to Viaro's will - especially if extensions of tenure, share options, new jobs or platinum goodbye handshakes are waived about?
I'd hope CA would know and be wised up. But I'd rather be sure

Have made CA aware by email. In case Viaro are prime bidders and CA unaware of Jankes link.

bingo
daniel jankes was general counsel and COMPANY SECRETARY of HUR 2011-2022
numerous shareholders (incl me) believed he and CFO Chaffe (with HUR since 2016) to have been THE principal movers & shakers on the HUR side in the failed 2021 restructuring application. which i (and others) believe cost HUR $150mill - $200mill in total

so, if viaro are bidding - we have an ex HUR mover & shaker as Viaro general counsel
is it me? or have the odds suddenly tumbled on CPR 2 being less than reliable?

was jankes HUR co.secretary? or general counsel? save me trawling back.
it may be important. someone help out ASAP?

brent at $80 and costs $40 gives 0.76p profit p.offload
so even if stays $80 (it won't), next 4 offloads gives 3.04p
half an offload in AM adds .38p = 3.42p
$19 mill 6 mths AM rent in escrow adds .8p = 4.4p
current 5.9p + 4.4p = 10.3p cash end dec 23 even with $80 brent if costs $40 - food for thought
costs hard to assess, may be bit lower, can't see them higher but may be wrong. next couple of ops & cash updates will give clearer picture
back of my fa g packet full for today

10p cash banked by end Dec
SP - anyone's guess. But 12p minimum? 14p anyone if production holding up nicely?

My mind keeps returning to Brent potential & thus potential if no fair deal
Brent today $85 ($84.75)
Russia can't increase sales to China & India. China factory production just restarting, must buy expected 2023 2.2 mbpd day increase from OPEC/Non-Russia market. Most analysts see $100 return between now/ end 2023. Some higher sooner.
I see 10p cash in bank + half an offload in AM by end Dec as greater than 50%
If so end 23 would see 10p cash + 18 mths production left (say 6 offloads) + tax credits. What is sale value then?

CRUCIAL is how rapidly production declines 2023 H2. As production declines, costs increase/ profit per offload decreases.
Projection is decline to 6000 bpd by end Dec 2023
BUT (to my lay knowledge) projections are by nature conservative. All it needs is for oil seeping into P6 from surrounding sandstone as P6 pressure decreases (not my field at all so excuse if guff) to maintain P6 pressure & production higher than projected to give us a fillip. In ideal world I suppose pressure and production could stabilise above commercially viable $ level (more likely with stable $100 Brent) and we have a nice surprise.
No point looking beyond Dec 23 at present given decline rate & Brent price importance. But I see 10p by end Dec & my eyes will be glued to those 2 variables if no deal occurs.

in the back of my fa g packet world....
BoD recommended bid needs SH vote, takes us to next offload 7p
legal stuff till final signing another 2 months end june offload 8p
6 mths AK rent paid so 9p
applying fair risk/reward ratio both parties (skewed in buyer's favour)
add 2p for well 6 oil in ground after next 2 offloads (8 offloads till mid 2025, say 6p), so 11p
add 4p tax credits (even 6p is only 50% of value to right company - Viaro?), so 15p
add 2p for acreage, licenses, potential (P8 but far wider), bells & whistles, etc, so 17p

it won't happen 'cos we've got penguins for negotiators. but you get my drift

Thanks gentlemen. I excluded Halifax (no well) & 7z (dormant/iffy) but as fand says media spin allows scope for inclusion. So on balance Viaro could be a runner

From EV article. This states a single acquisition which has 2 large production assets. Does HUR fit the bill? well 6 is one asset. Can the AM be counted as a large production asset? Or are only producing wells counted as production assets? Fairly crucial question - can anyone answer? No point getting excited for no good reason?

"Fresh from announcing the takeover of Spark Exploration, company chief executive Francesco Mazzagatti revealed they are at a “very advanced stage” of an acquisition for “two large production assets”. "

Can't access full article.
Does well 6 and the AM count as 2 separate valuable production assets?

Just google 'oil news' and proof read the 4 featured articles - gives decent 'feel' for next few months
Jeff Currie Goldman Sachs video - usually gets it right. But all pointing same direction
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-03-01/goldman-s-currie-has-high-confidence-in-oil-price-spike-in-12-18-months
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sees-Oil-Price-Spike-In-2024-As-Spare-Capacity-Runs-Thin.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rise-china-factory-gains-boost-demand-outlook-2023-03-01/
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/russia-oil-shadow-fleet/index.html