Member Info for senseman

My much appreciated post re Trice's economy of truth 29.01.20 RNS & what I would gladly do to the collective bad guys has been as expected pulled (so someone is still at it). See LetsBeCalm's post Sunday 19.20 now applauding fresh air.

A certain poster, as ever painfully slow to learn the merits of less is more. still giving it large all round. Sign...don' they ever learn this forum has an elephantine memory?

Amidst the December cold blues, and despite my current critical personal finances, happy to see no deal. My view remains - madness to agree a deal until minimum Feb 23 (and much later for me) when more cash in bank and better indication of 2023 Brent price. Well 6 humming along nicely is all we need. Patience, nil desperandum, and FO to all doomsayers. We didn't come this far to sell our souls for a bottle of gin and a bag of cheese and onion

LetsbeCalm states the true sadness in gentle fashion. The destroyed lives, hopes and dreams. Incurred via nothing but seeking reasonable reward for reasonable risk, via fair playing field.
Were fair emotion to be expressed, a writer would be banned.
So I will refrain from fairness, and limit myself to understatement:-
If I could identify and isolate in a locked room each and every one of the collective sock cucking pen pushing gonad-less parasitic venal vermin responsible, via incompetence, negligence or criminality, or mixture of some or all, I would with glad and content heart send each and every one to their maker, and embrace the lifelong jail term with a smile on my face.
I have no doubt I write for many

Bloomberg video - Bank of America head of derivatives on oil next few months. Interesting. Makes Feb offload price look more positive
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-12-07/oil-price-springy-on-russia-china-fed-says-bofa-s-blanch

corry - my thinking also. in which case we're gonna be kicked this offload. sod's law. nowt to do but wait till jan for the figures to see how badly. we've had a good run so i guess a poorish offload price was due. don't mind one poor one if oil rises 2023 q1 for feb offload and makes price optics and HUR's negotiating position better for 2023. just wish china would buy western covid vaccine so it can open up again. they aren't at present cos without western vaccine they could see 50K people daily dead is it spreads. can't see why china doesn't.it won' t harm it's reputation, everyone already knows the score. several western countries already offered it them, sticking point seems to be china insisting it is given formula so that china factory in china can be built and produce it. no western pharma is going to hand over intellectual property like that

from firm memory we've generally gotten 1-2 dollars more than the applicable 5 day average (it's why we've generally been a but surprised and pleased. i think there's a clause in the HUR BP contract which has to give a nod to the overall monthly average if its above the applicable 5 day one

Please could someone clarify, for benefit all:-
1. Is Brent oil market 7 days a week. or Mon-Fri?
2. If the latter in 1. above holds, are the first or last 5 BUSINESS DAYS (ie Mon-Fri) taken, if a weekend occurs during the 5 day calendar period?
It's relevant as there has just been a weekend and oil dropped off a cliff Dec 6 & 7

Cebo - yes, as you say, and certainly would explain. Also if offload early means lower volume to which current lowish Brent price will be applied, so may be deliberate for that reason

a certain poster (not Laser, of course) this morning posted for the first time on ADVFN. i have posted thereon an appropriate heads-up

tanker arriving after 2 months not circa 9 weeks is good - indicates high daily production. next offload/ production update will be interesting. high production/more rapid offload cycle than envisaged would offset some of this offload's relatively lower oil price. thanks to laser as ever for shipwatching

i do despair. as a general comment, the intelligence of some posters who rush to recommend ANY post of any poster who joyfully rushes to get whole threads pulled, amazes me. do they not see how quickly they are being used to effect 'rehabilitation', so the same cycle can reoccur?

.....breach the letter but NOT the spirit of posting rules....

I asked Moderator to reinstate the thread with posts breaching posting rules excluded (ie. I exhibited reasonableness)

The poster in question breaches posting rules more than any other. But being adults we handle it 'in-forum' and don't run crying to teacher. We accept a bit of argy bargy as part & parcel of forum life. But the poster in question waits for his actions to irritate others into technically breaching posting rules, then complains to teacher. Particular if is he is seen to be losing an argument.

A forum is akin to a 20mph speed limit. Though the law, it's meant to be a speed-deterrence guideline, not a prison. EVERY driver breaks the 20mph limit by 1-2-3mph, that's why cameras are set to fire a few miles above 20mph. If they were set at 20mph,within weeks there would be NO drivers left on the road. A forum is similar. Rules are intended to be responsible-behaviour guidelines, not straight-jackets. We ALL occasionally breach the letter but the spirit of posting rules - none of us mind as a bit of pithy comment is part and parcel of life's rich tapestry - we understand the concept of reasonable leeway and don't exceed certain boundaries. But when a certain poster highlight to the Moderator a technical rule-breach, the Moderator has no option but to pull the post. it's a a bit like a magistrates court - if a zealot policeman decides to prosecute you for doing 21mph in a 20mph zone, the magistrate will know it's oppressive and wasteful of police and court time, but because the law has been broken has no option but to find the 'offender' guilty

Bank of America 2023 Brent price forecast today
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-brent-crude-110-eu-sanctions-russia-opec-2022-12

At a glance
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63855030
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-04/oil-rises-as-china-loosens-curbs-and-opec-keeps-output-steady
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/dec/05/uk-2023-recession-oil-opec-output-cuts-services-sector-car-sales-business-live

An email from the Moderator informs me that this thread has been reinstated. I have thanked the Moderator for reviewing and applying fairness. I understand a number of posters wrote regarding the issue.

And lo and behold - a grown man has complained about the 'Latest Oil News' thread - running for several days, containing much appreciated oil information and personal interchange - and instigated it's entire removal. I have written to the Senior Moderator, who has previously reversed decisions and reinstated threads/posts removed via such tactic, requesting reinstatement on behalf of the forum after several members contacted me directly in the past hour. We shall see what happens.

OIL PRICE CAP $60
As soon as oil prices rise, price cap will have an effect.
Russ needs $70+ just to balance it's national budget
It can't do so selling currently discounted Urals at $50-$55
It can't do so selling Urals at price cap $60
As soon as oil rises, China, India et al will only pay $60 price cap price (why would they pay higher?)
Russ can't & won't refuse to sell at $60. It can't afford to. And not selling will close some -30C pipelines for ever. Cold kills
Russ production cost circa $20pb is irrelevant. The balanced national budget figure is the key metric.
See Section 3. this link
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-to-expect-from-the-new-russian-oil-price-cap/

LIFE IS INDEED A RICH TAPESTRY
A recently self-declared ex-bondholder poster who has just posted (quote)...'They remind me of when the bondholders tried their coup...' spent several weeks vociferously opining from April 2022, upon joining the forum, that no skulduggery was ever attempted, and HUR BoD at all times acted properly in the best interests of shareholders.
I repeat (quote)...'They remind me of when the bondholders tried their coup....'
The propensity for dubious posters to change masks to rewrite their history is immeasurable,
Comedy? Or despair? Amidst my current angst I know not which.
But it has certainly made me smile. And carries my vote for post of the week.

To correct disinformation posted via our current resident trolls:-
1. I am not married to a Ukrainian. The poster has been previously corrected on this point several times.
2. My war views posted Feb 22, relating to it's progression & how it would, in conjunction with the approaching supply crunch, ensure high oil for minimum 2-3 years, have proven remarkably accurate.
2. Imparting details of my personal position to Pics & others whom it may interest was to illustrate the degree of stress necessary to prevent me attending the 14 Dec General Meeting. I have a posting history of strictly limiting personal information. Unlike volumes posted by our resident trolls.
3. It is ironic that our resident trolls counter by labelling others (the majority) holding counter-views as trolls. The forum has seen it all before. The tactic will fail.

The impending (5 Dec) oil price cap look likely to be set at circa $60. Whereas such would have little immediate impact given that Urals oil can currently be bought at that price or cheaper, it will impact significantly if and when oil rises to $100. Because then the price of discounted Urals oil will be significantly higher than $60.

More generally - the value of a few kind words to any poster under extreme stress should never be underestimated. Last year gentle respected Adoubleuk took his own life, alone, in a French river. One can only imagine the secret unshared stress upon him. Yet on this forum he hinted at nothing ill. It is axiomatic that the strongest people bear, via their intrinsic nature, the greatest stress. Until they break. His stress may have been financial - possibly even irretrievable losses incurred via HUR exposure & unforseeable events over which he had no control. Or deeper more personal issues. Or even despair at humanity generally. But consider how many here, had he posted hint or signal of his despair, would have reached out with kind words to show he was not alone? Or would have offered their phone number or email and implored him to make contact? More than a few, I would say. A forum's value has many facets. Knowing the value of a kindly word, and the dangers of belittling a stressed poster, form part of that value.

Steve - GS lowered 2023 forecast only from 120 to 110. Their guy Currie highly respected. Gloucs spot on SA & Russia need high oil. My lay view need a miracle to see oil lower than 100 2023. Fundamentals - supply crunch. With all usual caveats. Peed off we'll get just 90 oil for Dec offload (already bounced today to 88), not 100 likely end Dec. Only cost us £5 mill, and we've had a good run at +100, so for this offload need be philosophical. Slava HUR, slava Ukraina

Thanks Pics, thought you might, and would have been nice to meet again. Peed off can't go
Thanks for a few kind words, helps at moment
I coach group of international class athletes. If they don't compete, they don't get paid. Nor do I. For 2 yrs we earned not a penny. Covid wiped athletics out - no meets, no bums on seats or local advertisers paying. Nothing. Very slowly recovering, but for most athletes the deal currently is flights & accommodation, but no appearance cash. So they and I still largely earning peanuts for full effort.
During 4-5 month 2021 fight I should have been setting up another income stream. But didn't as couldn't stand by and watch HUR be stolen. Choice between devil & deep blue sea. Always a price to be be paid somewhere along the line!
Recent months fighting my freeholder re £30K demanded - £20K major works (though £20K a flat currently sitting in major works kitty/reserve fund) + £10K service charges (3 yrs no audited accounts filed). Sold/borrowed everything I had/could to pay 20K as no money to fight it. Then CCJ for remaining £10K dropped through my door (I didn't even received Notice of Claim from court - court posts 2nd class brown envelopes, unrecorded, as 'bulk mail'. And freeholder not bothered to inform me). Whilst figuring out how to set CCJ aside, Section 146 possession notice comes through door, sum up to 13K by now, including notifying mortgage lender). Have 3 weeks to find/pay £13K, or pay lawyer £3-£4K to fight CCJ & Section 146 Notice as freeholder breached half the lease covenants, or forfeit whole flat. Only way to do either is to sell major chunk of HUR shares now - you can imagine my inner grief at having to do that after so much sweat & blood expended. My smart but currently v.scared & emotional woman been screaming at me past few days I was a fool to spend so much time on HUR in 2021 & thereafter. What does one say - yes honey, but 'do you want me to be a man who lets bad guys do bad things?' She knows she's frightened and emotional and I did the right thing. But at the moment senseman towers is not a tranquil place.