Member Info for senseman

Lovely bit of comedic entertainment from a non-shareholder

Forgot to say - article link posted by Easy well worth a full read - it all helps in getting a feel for the oil price situation
Gloucs - in our nice dreams - what value HUR if by end Feb Brent at 120 and looking set to stay there for a while..?))

Eust - methinks it's long been accepted that certain posters say one thing, and do precisely the opposite

I have thought for quite some time that from Dec 22 onwards oil will rise, possibly even markedy, over the ensuing months. Even in recession, Western economies are incredibly resilient. And a recession is a matter of small degrees or percentages. Ie merely little or no growth, or minor contraction. Whereas dramatic decreases in oil availability increase oil prices…dramatically.
Had I no shares in HUR, and were an oil trader, I would be buying oil.
By end Feb 23, the effect of imminent significant loss of oil from world markets, and the likely oil price range throughout 2023, will be clearer.
Were I the 100% owner of HUR, I would be very wary about selling my company, or assigning any price value, until I reviewed the position end Feb 23. Indeed, I would not consider doing so, save for a very silly offer price.
Oil may not rise, or indeed may do so only minimally, it's a strange world. But the possible upside of waiting till end Feb for a clearer picture to emerge, dramatically outweighs the downside. On that basis alone, I would be happy to accept the risks involved in being patient.

Late Sept, Sterling dropped to lowest ever against Dollar - 1.03/1.04, following Truss/Kwarteng spooking markets
HUR has $100 mill cash. Is this normally held in a dollar account?
As soon as pound dropped to lowest ever level, it was a no brainer than it would rebound strongly (history shows always does). This was even more clear when Kwarteng & then Truss went and Hunt made Chancellor.
Did our CFO - who had previously lost $4 mill by hedging the wrong way, have the wit to convert HUR's dollars to sterling? Or was he paralyzed by his earlier error? If he did not, we have lost a shedload of money as today pound is 1.19. Even if he converted at the 1.07/ 1.10 level (where it stayed for a goodly while so one could make a considered decision), we still would have be laughing.
I fear we may have lost a fair chunk of our $100 million cash pile in sterling value if it was left in dollars

According to yesterday's Market Insider, supply crunch will win and forecast $120 by end Dec, and all 2023 & 2024. No prizes for guessing who we would prefer to see has gotten it right
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-120-europe-energy-crisis-russia-ukraine-opec-2022-11

Brent price - hurts to say it, but likely to be a battle between the Dec effects of EU Russia oil sanctions finally starting, Russia oil losing 1-2 mill bpd, and USS 1 mill bpd strategic reserve sale ending - versus - global downturn in economic activity & oil demand
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Demand-Destruction-Is-More-Worrying-Than-A-Supply-Crunch-In-Oil-Markets.htmld

Having never filtered anyone, I regret the poster's decision. The personal bonus that I won't have to watch every word I write gives me no pleasure. If we all took umbrage so easily, over time we'd all filter everyone and there would be no forum. I'd prefer to be unfiltered and the poster grow a slightly thicker skin.
We are currently on a 9 week offload cycle. The era of a 6-8 week cycle passed months ago. One can understand a new shareholder not being up to speed. But when a prolific poster is so unaware of one of the most crucial parameters, since when did it become unreasonable and a sin for another poster to express the slightest irritability?

how on earth can a poster perpetually giving it loud and large, to communal distaste, state he thought offloads were every 6-8 weeks? When the last 2 have been at circa 2 months average, and the next is set to be 2 months plus a week/10days!
ye gods, is this the price we must pay for freedom of speech?

Apology
$100 mill cash already

Why?
100K cash already
Next 4 offloads would need just $27.5 mill net profit per offload. At $100 each Brent 530K offload value $53 mill. So would need roughly only 50-50 profit/costs split to get there. At $110 Brent each 530K offload value $58.3 mill.
Note: I haven't got a future cash prediction wrong from Jan 2021 when I first made one. Despite much scepticism. I'd make a fair bet I won't be far off this time. All it needs is Brent to come good. Which I rate at greater than 50-50 chance

Been doing some sums. If Brent $100 or above next 4 offloads (feasible) - Dec 13ish , Feb 20ish, April 27ish, July 3ish, becomes feasible that HUR reaches by July 3rd (say end June for simplicity) the HUR BoD $210 mill total net cash position projected for end of p6 production. That is, 9p cash in bank by end June/early July 2023, net of $19mill cash by BW in escrow re 6 months AM rent. I have of course ignored any Q1 dividend. Now wouldn't that be an eye opener and shake things up

Russia output to fall 1.5 mill bpd in Dec
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russias-Oil-Output-Set-To-Fall-By-15-Million-Bpd-In-December.html

Any mid cap or major with deeper pockets than HUR would be negligent not to include within it's thinking a successful P8 opening the doors to further oil in that immediate area. It's inconceivable that HUR managed to find, on it's first drill, the one and only sweet spot in the whole Lancaster area. Having played doom & gloom game, HUR will now likely find it bites them (and us) in the bum. Were I an interested buyer, I would argue a P8 and all the acreage is worth diddly squat. But it wouldn't be my true view. And I'd be prepared to bid a chunk more on the back of my unstated true view just to get HUR

does anyone know how long FSP usually takes (a) if fair price buyer found? (b) if one not found so company (in this instance HUR) ends/closes it?
i ask as, apart rom wanting to know how long we have to suffer before knowing, over on ADVFN it is mooted when it ends (with no buyer) SP will rise

I emailed CA few days ago with my consensus view of PIs on this forum regarding perceived value, and, with dividends now to be thrown off, that PIs would understand & prefer patience for true value sale, rather than speedy cheap sale. So CA aware of PI collective view

Brent $96 and Gloucs correct, many articles stating China will commence slow opening up 2023 Q1
Today's RNS - stating Maris & Chaffe hold circa 330K shares values circa £25K - always known & acknowledged by PIs. Always considerer token & irrelevant as such small quantity effectively regarded as having no skin in game as usual for chief execs to hold £100K shares apiece to be regarded as having skin in game

HUR RNS was opaque as poor (or deliberate) writing wrongly co-joined 2 separate issues - refusal of 7.7p offer, ad CA wishing to monetize. Surprisingly (for CA) it's RNS is also (to us) opaque.
CA wishing to monetize (due to target end 23 wind up date) was already in public domain. CA announced that date was now variable as it's SHs agreed to target fair value above speed of monetization. HUR RNS did not even have to state CA wished to monetize
Why would CA accept 7.7p when after mid Feb offload there will be 6.5p a share cash in bank, 3.1p of which (without sale) is due to be returned as dividend? And by end Q2 there will be enough cash to issue a further 3p dividend if needed to keep CA SHs happy with dividend cashflow, and still have large cash left in bank sufficient to surpass 7.7p in total. CA can add up. I just can't see them wanting to accept 7.7p offer when Dec & Feb offloads means 6.5p a share already as cash in bank.

mr wilks, i will a little, and keep a close watch.

good news for the future
is us, trumpites do less well than expected
is ukraine, russia leaving kherson
all we need now is $110 oil throughout all december