SERENE SUNDAY + HUR 'FORWARD CURVE' CASHFLOW BASED ON OIL FUTURES PRICES IS HOGWASH23 May 2021 12:44
At Friday's hearing bondholder's Counsel stated Hur's cashflow predictions based on Brent future prices - in his argument the most reliable industry expectation of future oil prices. I say this is B*LL*CKS and thus Hur cashflow projections B*LLS.
Oil futures are priced to take into account timespan/cash locked in/risk element/profit element. So typically, even in bull market, the further ahead in time, the lower price the futures option, Eg, today Brent Sept future's option is $64.8, Dec is $63.6. Yet most industry price predicters put Brent at $70+ (or even $75+) as economies recover & supply is squeezed. Add to this Hur's predictions were made using date quickly outdated by Brent's continuing recovery.
Hur's forward curve financial projections, based on Brent futures (completely the wrong metric to use) and time-expired oil price data are, in my view, deliberately skewed by circa $10 (give or take) and are thus HOGWASH
Serene Sunday all - serene because shareholders have not been disenfranchised - thank you Judge